Storm Coordination Message #4 – Late Monday Night 2/12/24-Late Tuesday Night 2/13/24 – Coastal Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..A coastal storm will take aim on Southern New England late Monday Night through Tuesday Night across much of Southern New England. The coastal storm will be capable of heavy snow, minor to moderate coastal flooding and strong wind gusts at the coast. A rain-snow line will be something to be monitored across coastal Southeast New England..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 AM Tuesday Morning through 1 AM Wednesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow and isolated higher amounts to 14″ and wind gusts to 40 MPH especially in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and at the coast..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 AM Tuesday Morning through 1 AM Wednesday Morning for Bristol, Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Eastern Kent, Bristol, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with higher amounts possible and wind gusts to 50 MPH with isolated higher gusts. In this area, the snow will be heavy and wet and this may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage in this area.
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for late Monday Night through late Tuesday Night for Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 5-9″ of snow and wind gusts to 35 MPH..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from late tonight through late Tuesday Night for Barnstable County Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and wind gusts to 60 MPH. The snow will be heavy and wet and that along with strong wind gusts could result in isolated to pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area which are Block Island Rhode Island, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket will receive a coating to 2″ of snow..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 12-5 PM Tuesday Afternoon for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide for East Coastal Massachusetts which includes Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth Counties, Cape Cod and the Islands. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Afternoon for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts. Shore road closures and beach erosion in areas hard hit by coastal storms last month are likely in the warning area and possible in the watch area. South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island with a Northeast wind component is not expected to see any coastal flooding from this event.
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 7 AM to 10 PM Tuesday for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Tuesday for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH. These winds along with any wet snow accumulation of 3″ or more could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Additional Warnings and/or Advisories are likely in future updates..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Tuesday across much of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area. A partial Amateur Radio Net Schedule for Tuesday is posted below and will be updated in the Monday Evening coordination message. Pictures and videos of coastal flooding and any storm damage etc. can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org..

A coastal storm will bring an end to a relative quiet stretch of weather for the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) As always, storm track will be critical to snowfall amounts and the rain-snow line in Coastal Southeast New England. The current track supports the current headlines. A track a bit more to the north would mean more of rain-snow line and mix further inland into parts of Eastern Massachusetts. A track further south would bringing heavier snowfall to the south coast, Cape and Islands. A colder solution has been noted in the last several model runs with a bit more of a southerly track and this has built confidence in heavier snowfall in Southeast interior and coastal Massachusetts, Southeast coastal Rhode Island and potentially even Cape Cod with this update.
2.) With no high pressure to the north, this will impact the amount of cold air to the north but the system will be intensifying which means dynamic cooling with the intensifying storm would allow for heavy snow expected to affect east and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and will continue to be monitored.
3.) With no high pressure to the north, this should keep the strong wind gusts a bit more muted than some coastal storms. Nonetheless, wind gusts of 40-60 MPH at the coast will be possible with this storm and models have trended a bit stronger with the storm resulting in a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and the Islands for wind gusts up to 60 MPH. With wind gusts 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts at the coast in the Winter Storm Warning/Watch area, those winds are covered under the Winter Storm Warning/Watch. The timing of these Northeast winds will have an impact on the level of coastal flooding at the time of high tide Tuesday for East Coastal Massachusetts. No impacts are expected in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island due to the Northeast wind direction based on the current storm track.
4.) Amount of snow will depend on the storm speed and intensity in addition to the track as mentioned in item 1. Also, the snow could be heavy and wet in the Winter Storm Warning area of Southeast Massachusetts and South Central Rhode Island and East Coastal Massachusetts and this aspect will be monitored for any isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and any power outages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Tuesday across much of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area. Here is a partial Amateur Radio Net Schedule which will be updated in the Monday evening final Storm Coordination Message:

146.940-Mount Tom MA Repeater (PL: 127.3): Nets every 2 hours starting at 7 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions
146.970-Paxton MA Repeater (PL: 114.8) – Nets every 2 hours starting at 730 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions
146.790-Vernon CT Repeater (PL: 82.5) – Nets every 2 hours starting at 700 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions (Time Tentative)
146.895-Walpole MA Repeater (PL: 123.0) – Nets every 2 hours starting at 700 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions
146.955-Westford Repeater (PL: 74.4) – TBD and will be updated this evening.
145.230-Boston Repeater (PL: 88.5) – Nets every 2 hours starting at 700 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions – net may run continuously for a time during the Tuesday PM high tide (Time tentative)
NB1RI Repeater System – Nets every 2 hours starting at 700 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions (time tentative)
147.000-Dartmouth Repeater (PL: 67.0): TBD and will be updated this evening.
147.180-Bridgewater Repeater (PL: 67.0): TBD and will be updated this evening.
146.955-Barnstable Repeater (PL 88.5): TBD and will be updated this evening.

Pictures and videos of coastal flooding and any storm damage etc. can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement & Snowfall Map, Coastal Flood Warning/Watch Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement & Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Warning/Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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