August 2024

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 8/26/24 Late Morning through Early Evening Severe Weather/Flood Potential

August 26, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely for Monday from late morning to early evening from around 11 AM-9 PM EDT across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather for Monday. Key factors will be heating and destabilization to take advantage of cold air aloft to offset relatively marginal/weak wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorm development which currently looks on track with strong heating and destabilization taking place..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Net Call-Ups are likely today for the severe weather potential. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday PM & Evening 8/26/24 Severe Weather/Flood Potential

August 26, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible for Monday from early afternoon to early evening from around 12-9 PM EDT across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather for Monday. Key factors will be heating and destabilization to take advantage of cold air aloft to offset relatively marginal/weak wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorm development..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Net Call-Ups are possible today for the severe weather potential. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Another more complete coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2024/day2otlk_20240825_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday PM & Evening – 8/19/24 Severe Weather/Flood Potential

August 19, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible this Monday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Heavy downpours with urban/poor drainage flooding to flash flooding with frequent lightning are the main threats but strong to damaging winds and hail are secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western, Central and Northeast Mass, much of Rhode Island and Connecticut in a Marginal Risk for severe weather..
..The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a slight risk for excessive rainfall with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for much of the rest of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Net Call-Ups are possible today for the severe weather potential. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message on the Thursday severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday PM & Evening Severe Weather Potential

August 15, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible for Thursday from mid-afternoon to early evening from around 3-9 PM EDT across much of interior Southern New England with areas of Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island the favorable area for these storms. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for today. Key factors will be heating and destabilization to take advantage of cold air aloft to offset relatively marginal/weak wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorm development..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Net Call-Ups are possible today for the severe weather potential. Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message on the Thursday severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday PM & Evening 8/12/24 Strong Thunderstorm Potential

August 12, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Convective showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across Southern New England this Monday afternoon and evening between around 1-8 PM. Strong winds, small hail, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours with brief urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats. While an isolated marginally severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out completely, sub-severe criteria hail and strong winds are what most likely will occur today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for any hail, strong winds, wind damage, rain gauge reports in the region. This will be the only coordination message for this event. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday PM 8/9/24 Through Early Saturday AM 8/10/24 – Severe Weather/Flood Potential

August 9, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible in Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut as the remnants of Debby passes to the west of the region. Strong to damaging winds, and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated weak tornado as a secondary threat with the threat timeframe around 3 PM Friday Afternoon through 1 AM Saturday Morning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued portions of Western/Central Massachusetts and Western/Central Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets will monitor the severe weather potential for late Friday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

The remnants of Debby will pass well to the west of Southern New England Friday through Saturday Morning. This means widespread heavy rainfall and flooding is not expected in the region. That said, it puts Southern New England and in particular Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut at risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms being on the east side of the remnant circulation of Debby. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The conditional straightline wind damage and isolated tornado threat could affect a very localized, spotty area or areas within the severe weather risk area making any impacts hyper localized. In addition, any tornadic circulations maybe very brief or not detectable by radar so severe thunderstorm warnings with tornado possible tags may be utilized more ubiquitously for this event with tornado warnings issued for circulations that can be radar detected and seen for a period of time.
2.) Any flooding that occurs will be localized and typical of severe weather events we see over the course of the summer with urban and poor drainage areas at greatest risk
3.) There will be some general gusty winds of around 40 MPH in gusts with slightly higher gusts in the higher elevations and possibly at the coast that could cause isolated pockets of wind damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets will monitor the severe weather potential for late Friday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/9/24 Through Saturday AM 8/10/24 – Severe Weather/Flood Potential

August 9, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut as the remnants of Debby passes to the west of the region. Strong to damaging winds, and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated weak tornado as a secondary threat with the threat timeframe around 3-11 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western/Central Massachusetts and Western/Central Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets will monitor the severe weather potential for late Friday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets will monitor the severe weather potential for late Friday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2024/day2otlk_20240808_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday PM & Evening 8/4/24 & Monday PM & Evening 8/5/24 Severe Weather Potential

August 4, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Additional rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely Sunday Afternoon and Evening between 12-8 PM and Monday Afternoon and Evening from around 3-11 PM in portions of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. SPC has placed Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts north of Route 2 in a slight risk of severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather from South Coastal Connecticut to Central Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts north up to the slight risk area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and evening and Monday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

On Saturday, most of the severe weather occurred across Southern Connecticut and into the Mid-Atlantic states but one severe thunderstorm caused pockets of tree and wire damage in Plainfield, CT and Coventry RI. The WX1BOX Amateur Radio log and NWS Norton Local Storm Report from Saturday are listed below:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/reports_8_3_24.pdf

NWS Norton Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/LSR-8-3-24.pdf

On Friday, severe weather affected portions of Southern New England. Hardest hit was the Simsbury, Granby, West Suffield, CT area along with East Windsor CT. Other isolated damage were reported in parts of Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Northeast Rhode Island. The WX1BOX Amateur Radio log and NWS Norton Local Storm Report are listed below:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/reports_8_2_24.pdf

NWS Norton MA Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/LSR-8-2-24.pdf

For Sunday and Monday, more severe weather is possible to likely in at least a portion of Southern New England as a cold front slowly moves into the region attempting to bring an end to the heat and humidity in the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors will be broken out by each day.

Key Factors for Sunday severe weather potential:
1.) Similar to Saturday, marginal wind shear and favorable instability parameters overcoming some unfavorable parameters to produce severe weather.
2.) Amount of heating and destabilization given some cloud cover in the area to allow for the favorable instability parameters to take hold in the region.
3.) Triggering mechanism in the atmosphere lining up with items 1 and 2 for severe weather potential

Key Factors for Monday severe weather potential:
1.) Whether forcing and a triggering mechanism will reach Southern New England near or just past the time of peak heating for severe thunderstorm development
2.) Wind Shear profiles are expected to be quite strong enhancing severe weather potential in the slight risk area if forcing/triggering can move further south in the area
3.) Instability should be sufficient and if forcing and a triggering mechanism can enter the area, it will be an active day especially in the slight risk portion of the severe weather potential

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the severe weather potential for Sunday Afternoon and evening and Monday Afternoon and Evening. Pictures and videos of storm damage from the events over the next couple days or prior events in the previous two days can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will be the only coordination message on the Sunday severe weather potential and the next coordination message on the Monday severe weather potential will be posted by 11 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday PM & Evening 8/3/24 Severe Weather Potential

August 3, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible particularly in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut though all interior Southern New England should monitor the potential this Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 4-11 PM. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..A Heat Advisory is also in effect until 7 PM Saturday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent Counties of Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for hear indices of 95 to 104 degrees. If outdoors, take frequent breaks if working, drink plenty of liquids and find cool areas to rest to avoid heat related illnesses..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for later Saturday PM and evening..

Yesterday, severe weather affected portions of Southern New England. Hardest hit was the Simsbury, Granby, West Suffield, CT area along with East Windsor CT. Other isolated damage were reported in parts of Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Northeast Rhode Island. The WX1BOX Amateur Radio log and NWS Norton Local Storm Report are listed below:

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/reports_8_2_24.pdf

NWS Norton MA Local Storm Report:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/LSR-8-2-24.pdf

Today could have a similar scenario as Friday though a bit later in the day after 4 PM through 11 PM this Saturday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Ability of heating and destabilization and marginal wind shear to compensate for other marginal instability factors to produce severe weather
2.) Timing of an impulse in atmosphere to trigger the instability and marginal wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorm development

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Special Announcement: 2024 Northeast HamXposition – SKYWARN Training & Other SKYWARN/Weather Related Topics at HamXpo’2024

August 2, 2024 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

The 2024 Northeast HamXposition and ARRL New England Division Convention will be held from Thursday Evening 8/22/24-Sunday 8/25/24. There will be many interesting forums at this year’s convention. For complete information on this Amateur Radio Convention, please see the following link:
https://hamxposition.org/

We will have a SKYWARN/ARES/RACES table at the Convention as we have had going back to the late 1990s. In addition, there will be several SKYWARN and weather related topics including SKYWARN Training which will be taught by NWS Boston/Norton by recently named Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Frank Nocera and KD1CY-Rob Macedo, Eastern Mass ARES SEC & SKYWARN Coordinator and a perspective on 30 years of NWS-ARRL ARES partnership with Taunton/Norton Office by retired Warning Coordination Meteorologist, KB1GHX-Glenn Field.

The Convention is also honored and privileged that Matt and Danielle Noyes from their new digital weather venture, 1Degree Outside. They will be presenting about their new venture and the vital role Amateur Radio & non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters play with surface reporting during severe weather events and immediately following their presentation will be an Advanced Topics in SKYWARN Presentation combining Doppler Radar Fundamentals and understanding with how to gather critical surface and damage reporting via various techniques utilized within the SKYWARN and Amateur Radio communities during severe weather.

A list of the key SKYWARN and weather related presentations for Northeast HamXposition are listed below:

Friday 8/23/24:
100 PM: NWS SKYWARN and ARRL ARES: 30 Years of Support and Partnership in New England by KB1GHX-Glenn Field, retired NWS Boston/Norton WCM
300 PM: SKYWARN Spotter training by NWS Norton Warning Coordination Meteorologist Frank Nocera and KD1CY-Rob Macedo

Saturday 8/24/24:
100 PM: 1DegreeOutside: A Digital-First Weather Approach and the Vital Role of SKYWARN Spotters by Matt & Danielle Noyes
200 PM: Advanced Topics in SKYWARN – Doppler Radar Fundamentals & How You Can Help with Severe Weather Reporting Situational Awareness by KD1CY-Rob Macedo

There are many other topics related to ARES and Emergency Communications at the convention including presentations from the FEMA Region 1 Disaster Communications department. The full schedule of presentations can be seen here:
https://registration.hamxposition.org/Schedule/

The Convention also features a full Amateur Radio Flea Market and Amateur Radio vendors. For those that maybe interested in getting their Amateur Radio license, the convention has a “Tech in a Day” class on Saturday 8/24/24 and several Volunteer Examiner (VE) test sessions as listed on the schedule.

We hope many from the Amateur Radio community and even those outside of the Amateur Radio community can attend and see the SKYWARN/Weather related presentations and for those that might be interested in getting their Amateur Radio license, use the convention as an opportunity to get licensed by preparing ahead of time or take advantage of the Tech-In-A-Day licensing class offered. Thanks to all for their support!

Respectfully Submitted,

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