Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 6/7/16 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely across much of interior Southern New England from around midday Tuesday into late Tuesday Evening. Can also not rule out the possibility of a strong to severe thunderstorm during the early Tuesday Morning hours as well. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather with a possible upgrade to a slight risk for severe weather in later outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are planned for Tuesday at 1000 AM EDT lasting through early evening..
The potential exists for our first severe weather event of the spring/summer season across portions of interior Southern New England for Tuesday. The headlines indicate the current severe weather potential. It is noted that there will be strong wind shear and considerable cooling aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere as favorable factors for severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday. Key items that will ultimately effect the potential for severe weather across Southern New England Tuesday:
1.) Any morning convection in the 5-8 AM EDT timeframe, the strength of that convection and any cloud cover/debris that is left behind from that convection. More cloud debris during the day would reduce instability levels and limit severe weather potential. Faster clearing and more heating will allow for greater instability and greater potential for severe weather.
2.) The amount of dry air in mid-levels in the atmosphere and whether this does not allow for strong updraft potential. If there is too much dry air, this could reduce severe weather potential. If the dry air is not that significant, this would increase the severe weather potential.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are planned for Tuesday at 1000 AM EDT lasting through early evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM EDT Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely across much of interior Southern New England from around midday Tuesday into late Tuesday Evening. Can also not rule out the possibility of a strong to severe thunderstorm during the early Tuesday Morning hours as well. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather with a possible upgrade to a slight risk for severe weather in later outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are planned for Tuesday at 1000 AM EDT lasting through early evening..
The potential exists for our first severe weather event of the spring/summer season across portions of interior Southern New England for Tuesday. The headlines indicate the current severe weather potential. It is noted that there will be strong wind shear and considerable cooling aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere as favorable factors for severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday. Key items that will ultimately effect the potential for severe weather across Southern New England Tuesday:
1.) Any morning convection in the 5-8 AM EDT timeframe, the strength of that convection and any cloud cover/debris that is left behind from that convection. More cloud debris during the day would reduce instability levels and limit severe weather potential. Faster clearing and more heating will allow for greater instability and greater potential for severe weather.
2.) The amount of dry air in mid-levels in the atmosphere and whether this does not allow for strong updraft potential. If there is too much dry air, this could reduce severe weather potential. If the dry air is not that significant, this would increase the severe weather potential.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are planned for Tuesday at 1000 AM EDT lasting through early evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM EDT Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box