Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy taking aim on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. Preparedness measures in Southern New England need to be stepped up and we cannot emphasize enough to not focus on the track of the storm center to New Jersey or Sandy’s status as a tropical or post-tropical system as this will be a large and severe storm system with severe weather and damaging to hurricane force wind conditions occurring several hundred miles from the storm center and a track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major to significant impact for Southern New England. Model trends have been shifting northward with time north of Cape May to as far north as Long Island and even the Southern New England coastline as well..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast with major/significant impact becoming more likely for Southern New England. A track north of Cape May New Jersey, which is becoming more likely, means damaging to hurricane force winds with widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC would result in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is now covering much of Southern New England..
..In this coordination message, we will update the impacts based on the current reliable track solutions available at the time of issuance of this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely as early as late Sunday Night through Tuesday possibly extending into Wednesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region..

Hurricane Sandy is now moving slowly northward and will continue northward. Sandy has a wind radius that is currently 275 miles wide. The storm will likely expand further and likely have a wind field greater than 350 miles wide. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region.

Here is an update on the scenarios. A track of this storm at or north of Cape May New Jersey will mean major/significant impact to Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for much of the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC means a moderate impact with strong to damaging winds especially at higher eleations and along the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and still the threat for heavy rainfall over southern and western parts of the region.

With some more model consistency seen overnight, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

1.) We cannot overemphasize that with this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 350 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States. There has been other precedents for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts. A track at or north of Cape May New Jersey means major/significant impact to Southern New England.

2.) The latest track guidance continues to be over or just south of Long Island and even implying the coast of Southern New England at times. Even one of the reliable models that had a track to the Delmarva/Cape May New Jersey point is now further north into Central New Jersey. This is increasing confidence on a major/significant impact to Southern New England. There remains another camp of models brings the track more towards the Delmarva/Southern New Jersey area that still needs to be monitored but the overall consensus of models is a further north track over the course of today’s runs.

3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. In fact, the reason a system that could potentially track into New Jersey can provide such a significant impact to southern New England is because it will become either a hybrid system of both tropical and non-tropical nature or a large system of non-tropical characteristics. This is why we cannot overemphasize the fact that a track even as far south as Cape May New Jersey means significant impact to Southern New England.

4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more and the last several cycles are depicting a track closer to Southern New England track could occur which means higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track south of Cape May New Jersey to lower the impact to a moderate impact and it would take a track south of Washington DC to a minor impact. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership. Eastern Massachusetts ARES was placed on stand-by as of 830 PM Friday Evening 10/26/12 until further notice looking for availability of Amateur Radio resources for possible deployment. New Hampshire ARES reports that they are at a level-2 activation meaning that a potential for a communications emergency exists.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. NWS Taunton has issued a Marine Weather Statement for marine interests, that statement, the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion and the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Saturday Morning or early Afternoon pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy moving Northwest away from the Bahamas. Impact on the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast now the focus. Sandy is still expected to become a large storm system off the US East Coast of either tropical nature or of hybrid (both tropical and non-tropical) nature with potential significant impacts to much of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Savannah River to Oregon Inlet North Carolina, Pamlico Sound, Florida East Coast from North of Flagler Beach to Fernandia Beach Florida, Florida Upper Keys from Ocean Reef to Criag Key and Florida Bay..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. The potential exists for either a close pass from the storm resulting in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages or for a near direct hit to direct hit with damaging to hurricane force winds with widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is now covering much of Southern New England..
..In this coordination message, we will update the impacts based on the current reliable track solutions available at the time of issuance of this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through Tuesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region..

Hurricane Sandy is moving away from the Bahamas on a Northwest Track. Sandy continues to expand with a wind radius now 275 miles. The storm will likely expand further and likely have a wind field greater than 350 miles wide. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region. A scenario where Sandy moves out to sea is now off largely off the table.

Here is an update on the scenarios. A track of this storm at or north of Cape May New Jersey will mean major impact to Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for much of the region. A track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC means a moderate impact with strong to damaging winds especially at higher eleations and along the coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and still the threat for heavy rainfall over southern and western parts of the region.

With some more model consistency seen overnight, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

1.) With this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 350 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States. There has been other precedents for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts.

2.) The latest track guidance has shifted a bit. There are a camp of reliable computer models that shifted northward overnight. Several models have a track that is further north and over the Long Island/New York City/Northern New Jersey area. If this track verifies, this would mean a major impact to the region. Another camp of models brings the track more towards the Delmarva/Southern New Jersey area. If it is north of Cape May New Jersey, major impacts are still likely but a track south of Cape May New Jersey to Washington DC would mean more moderate impacts. 

3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. The resulting potential of wind damage, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall will be the same regardless of its tropical status.

4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more. It is possible a closer to Southern New England track could occur which would mean higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track south of Cape May New Jersey to lower the impact to a moderate impact and it would take a track south of Washington DC to a minor impact. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. NWS Taunton has issued a Marine Weather Statement for marine interests, that statement and the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Friday Evening or Saturday Morning pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy pounded Eastern Jamaica, Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas as a category-1 to category-2 hurricane. Sandy is now pulling away from the Bahamas and will now begin to take aim on the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States coastline. Sandy is expected to become a large storm system off the US East Coast of either tropical nature or of hybrid (both tropical and non-tropical) nature with potential significant impacts to much of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. The potential exists for either a close pass from the storm resulting in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages or for a direct hit with strong to damaging and possibly hurricane force winds with possibly widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and  coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is now covering much of Southern New England..
..In this coordination message, we will begin to discuss a bit of the impacts based on the current reliable track solutions available at the time of issuance of this coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through Tuesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership..
..To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region..

Hurricane Sandy caused high end tropical storm to low-end hurricane force conditions across Eastern Jamaica and affected portions of Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas as a strong Category-2 hurricane. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region. A scenario where Sandy moves out to sea continues to lessen as multiple models are agreeing on a solution with an impact to the Northeast and US Mid-Atlantic coasts.

The two more likely scenarios at this time are either a storm that causes a direct hit on the northern mid-atlantic where Southern New England still sees a significant impact of strong to damaging winds with hurricane force wind gusts in the southern half of the region, scattered to numerous power outages and minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall. The other scenario is one that tracks Sandy directly into Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and even heavier rainfall regionwide. As stated previously, an out to sea track now seems the least likely track given model solutions tracking closer to the region.

With some more model consistency seen today, it is time to discuss some of the model tracks and what they mean for our region. Given this system will be large in size and severe in magnitude and likely carrying both tropical and non-tropical characteristics, there are several important items to note.

1.) With this system more than any other tropical system in recent times and even including Irene which had a large size and envelope from last year, do not focus on the center of Sandy. Sandy is likely to be a large storm well over 300 miles wide as it approaches the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States.

2.) Current track guidance is indicating that the center of Sandy will come towards Southern New England and then attempt to take a hard left turn into Central New Jersey. If this track verifies, despite the center being further south, there will still be severe sustained winds with wind gusts to hurricane force partiuclarly in Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Southeast Massachusetts with winds reaching over severe criteria (winds gusts over 58 MPH and the possibility of sustained winds in the low-end severe criteria) across much of the remainder of Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire. The reason for this is the very large envelope of this system. There has been a precedent for such large wind envelopes. In November 2007, Post-Tropical Noel despite tracking several hundred miles offshore of Cape Cod brought hurricane force winds gusts and severe criteria sustained winds to that region with wind gusts to near severe criteria across Eastern and South Coastal Massachusetts.

3.) Do not focus on whether Sandy remains at hurricane/tropical storm status or a post-tropical storm system. The resulting potential of wind damage, coastal flooding, and heavy rainfall will be the same regardless of its tropical status.

4.) Track model guidance is likely to shift more. It is possible a closer to Southern New England track could occur which would mean higher winds and worse conditions for the region. A further south track would lessen the impact but it would take a track closer to Northern Virginia or perhaps the Delmarva region to really lower the impact to our region. This is due to the sheer size of the expected system.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday and Thursday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net was active today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

To underscore the potential severity of this system, the coordinators at the National Hurricane Center Amateur Radio Station, WX4NHC, Julio Ripoll-WD4R and John McHugh-K4AG have coordinated with our team and have declared that they will be active for the entire duration of Sandy’s impact to our region regardless of whether the system remains classified as a tropical system over our region.

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. NWS Taunton has posted a new Public Information Statement on Safety and Preparedness steps for Hurricane Sandy. That information can be seen via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_10_25_12_hurricane_sandy.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. NWS Taunton has issued a Marine Weather Statement for marine interests, that statement and the latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Friday Morning or Friday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy pounded Eastern Jamaica as a category-1 hurricane and pounded Eastern Cuba as a strong category-2 hurricane and is now taking aim on the Bahamas with tropical storm to hurricane force conditions likely in these areas. Sandy is expected to become a large storm system off the US East Coast of either tropical nature or of hybrid (both tropical and non-tropical) nature with potential significant impacts to much of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. The potential exists for either a close pass from the storm resulting in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages or for a direct hit with strong to damaging and possibly hurricane force winds with possibly widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and  coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region. Again, the timeframe for potential impact will be in the late Sunday Night through Tuesday timeframe..
..Interests in Southern New England should continue monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. The National Hurricane Center Advisories are now requesting interests along the entire US East Coast to closely monitor the progress of Sandy and the ‘cone of uncertainity’ on the track of Sandy is reaching portions of the Southern New England coast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday..
..ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership..

Hurricane Sandy caused high end tropical storm to low-end hurricane force conditions across Eastern Jamaica and affected portions of Eastern Cuba as a strong Category-2 hurricane. Sandy is now taking aim on and the Bahamas region. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region. A scenario where Sandy moves out to sea continues to lessen as multiple models are agreeing on a solution with an impact to the Northeast and US Mid-Atlantic coasts.

The two more likely scenarios at this time are either a storm that causes a direct hit on the northern mid-atlantic where Southern New England sees a moderate impact of strong to damaging winds, isolated to scattered power outages and minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall. The other scenario is one that tracks Sandy directly into Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and even heavier rainfall. As stated previously, an out to sea track now seems the least likely track given model solutions tracking closer to the region.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net were active much of Wednesday for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. WX4NHC and the Hurricane Watch Net may be active again today for impacts on the Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely as early as late Sunday Night through potentially Tuesday. ARES/RACES/EMCOMM groups should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Sandy and seek advice from local leadership.

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Thursday Evening or Friday Morning pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..Hurricane Sandy pounded Eastern Jamaica and taking aim on Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas with tropical storm to hurricane force conditions likely in these areas. Sandy is expected to become a large storm system off the US East Coast of either tropical nature or of hybrid (both tropical and non-tropical) nature with potential significant impacts to much of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area..
..Multiple reliable computer weather models depict a powerful storm system of large and severe nature taking aim on portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US Coast. The potential exists for either a close pass from the storm resulting in strong to damaging winds, minor to moderate coastal flooding and isolated to scattered power outages or for a direct hit with strong to damaging and possibly hurricane force winds with possibly widespread downed trees and wires and power outages, significant beach erosion and  coastal storm surge flooding over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall for the region..
..Interests in Southern New England should begin monitoring the progress of Hurricane Sandy. This message’s intent, at this very early stage, is to have folks begin the monitoring process..

Hurricane Sandy caused high end tropical storm to low-end hurricane force conditions across Eastern Jamaica. Sandy is now taking aim on Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas region. Sandy is then expected to move parallel but offshore of the US East Coast. Multiple computer models are depicting a scenario where Sandy, either as a tropical system or a hybrid/nor’easter system with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics tracks into either the northern mid-atlantic or Southern New England providing either a moderate to severe impact to the region. A scenario where Sandy moves out to sea continues to lessen as multiple models are agreeing on a solution with an impact to the Northeast and US Mid-Atlantic coasts.

The two more likely scenarios at this time are either a storm that causes a direct hit on the northern mid-atlantic where Southern New England sees a moderate impact of strong to damaging winds, isolated to scattered power outages and minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion over several high tide cycles and heavy rainfall. The other scenario is one that tracks Sandy directly into Southern New England which would mean damaging to hurricane force winds, significant beach erosion and severe coastal flooding over several high tide cycles and even heavier rainfall. As stated previously, an out to sea track now seems the least likely track given model solutions tracking closer to the region.

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, the VoIP Hurricane Net and Hurricane Watch Net have been active since Wednesday Morning for Sandy’s impact on Jamaica and Eastern Cuba and up into the Central and Northwest Bahamas. See their respective net links for details:

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

Amateur Radio and Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters should continue to keep high situational awareness regarding the track and intensity of Hurricane Sandy. People should gradually begin reviewing their preparedness measures for storm force or tropical storm to hurricane force conditions as a precaution. This information has been provided via the Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements of Safety Tips via the link below:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/hurrpre.txt

Once again, Hurricane Sandy should be monitored closely by people in Southern New England. The latest NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and advisory information on Hurricane Sandy are listed below:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Sandy Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt33.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt43.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt23.KNHC.html

Hurricane Sandy Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font13.KNHC.html

The next coordination message will likely be posted some time either Thursday Morning or Thursday Evening pending further computer model data on the track of Sandy and significant updates to Sandy’s status as a tropical system from an intensity and transition to a hybrid system perspective.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

A 4.0 (originally recorded as 4.6) on the Richter Scale Earthquake occurred in the Sanford Maine area. Numerous Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters reported feeling the effects across the NWS Taunton Coverage area.

If you felt this earthquake in this region, please follow the instructions per this link or utilize the USGS national link (listed as the second link below):

http://www.bc.edu/research/westonobservatory/northeast/ifyoufelt.html

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000d75b#dyfi_form

Information on this earthquake can be seen at the following link:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000d75b#summary

Emails or filling out the USGS form per the web site links are likely preferred over voice phone calls.

Thanks for your cooperation!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator           
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Strong Storm system is still expected to bring a period of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging wind and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area including Southern New Hampshire from 4 AM Today through 6 AM Wednesday for sustained winds 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Isolated higher wind gusts are possible in higher terrain locations as well as some south coastal areas..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much Western and Central Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for this evening into early Wednesday Morning..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 PM ET Tuesday Evening lasting through early Wednesday Morning..

A strong cold front will bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding. The focus of the activity will be during Tuesday Evening lasting through Wednesday Morning. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area including Southern New Hampshire from 4 PM today through 6 AM Wednesday. The strongest winds are expected in the Connecticut River Valley from 4 PM to Midnight and from 7 PM to 6 AM from the Worcester hills to the coastal areas. There is the potential for isolated higher wind gusts in higher terrain and coastal locations that may reach High Wind Warning criteria and this will be monitored through the event.

The Storm Prediction Center has extended the Slight Risk area for severe thunderstorms to include much of Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening and will be capable of damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding. This would likely be in a line configuration of storms affecting the area with convection capable of mixing strong winds aloft down to the surface. Other areas outside of the Slight Risk area in the NWS Taunton coverage area have the potential for an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm as well with this storm system.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 PM ET Tuesday Evening lasting through early Wednesday Morning for this storm system. This will likely be the last coordination message on this event unless a significant change to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Strong Storm system to bring a period of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging wind and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect Tuesday Afternoon through Wednesday Morning for strong to possibly damaging winds for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area except for Southern New Hampshire for southerly wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts over the higher terrain and south coastal New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 PM ET Tuesday Evening lasting through early Wednesday Morning..

A strong cold front will bring heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding. The focus of the activity will be during Tuesday Evening lasting through Wednesday Morning. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton coverage area except for Southern New Hampshire for Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. The strongest winds are expected in the Connecticut River Valley from 4 PM to Midnight and from 7 PM to 4 AM from the Worcester hills to the coastal areas.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Southwest Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms and the potential exists for Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and urban and poor drainage flooding. This would likely be in a line configuration of storms affecting the area. Other areas outside of the Slight Risk area in the NWS Taunton coverage area have the potential for an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm as well with this storm system.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 6 PM ET Tuesday Evening lasting through early Wednesday Morning for this storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Potential remains for a significant severe weather outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts through Eastern New York State, most of Southern New Hampshire, and most of Connecticut, particularly Western and Central Connecticut. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely in Eastern New England from Eastern Connecticut through Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has continued a Moderate Risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, and Western and Central Connecticut and a Slight Risk for severe weather exists for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts into Southeast New Hampshire. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and an isolated tornado risk are the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET Saturday with the threat timeframe being mid-afternoon through late evening..
..ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this weather situation and seek consultation from local leaderhsip..

Satellite imagery is showing clouds with some breaks over the region and similar breaks with clouds over New York and the Mid-Atlantic area. The clouds are expected to thin out a bit more which should allow for sufficient heating and destablization with very strong wind shear over the area for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak. SPC has continued with a moderate risk for severe weather over Southwest New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts, and Western and Central Connecticut and a Slight Risk for severe weather exists for Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Massachusetts into Southeast New Hampshire. Widespread pockets of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and an isolated tornado risk are the primary threats.

The expected scenario is that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will organize during the afternoon and early evening hours and these could be discreet supercells capable of damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding and the isolated tornado threat would be maximized with these discreet cells. As we get toward early to mid evening, a squall line of severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds of at least 60 MPH and possibly over 70 MPH, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding will sweep through the region. The activity will be strongest over the Moderate Risk area but could also affect the Slight Risk area of Eastern New England in a weaker state as the cold front sweeps offshore of the region by Sunday Morning. The squall line is likely the biggest threat in today’s expected severe weather scenario but isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms out ahead of the squall line may pose the risk of an isolated tornado.

As mentioned in the prior coordination message, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:

1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.

2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.

It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across New York and the mid atlantic states.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM ET Saturday lasting through early Sunday Morning. The threat for severe weather is centered anytime from mid-afternoon through late evening. ARES/RACES/MARS and other EMCOMM Groups should closely monitor the progress of this weather situation and seek consultation from local leaderhsip. This will likely be the last coordination message for this potential severe weather event as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Experimental Briefing from 600 AM today that will not be updated again but could be a useful briefing tool:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Experimental Multimedia Briefing in MP4 Format:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Potential for a Severe Weather Outbreak across portions of Western and Central New England from Western Middlesex County Massachusetts west, most of Southern New Hampshire and most of Connecticut. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Isolated supercells are possible if storms organize ahead of what is expected to be a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms..
..SPC has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for severe weather across Eastern New England. NWS Taunton is in agreement on a potential severe weather threat..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely mid-to-late Saturday Afternoon through early Sunday Morning..

The potential exists for a severe weather outbreak across portions of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area of Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather with a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across much of the remainder of Eastern New England. The severe weather threat surrounds a cold front in the Midwest United States which will enter the Northeast on Saturday and traverse off the coast by early Sunday Morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could develop by mid to late afternoon across the area ahead of the cold front. These isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could allow for a supercell or two to form over the area. Following those storms, a long-lived Squall line of thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the main threats could traverse the region.

As always with forecasting severe weather outbreaks, there are some factors to be contended with that could mitigate the threat. Some of the factors here include:

1.) Sufficient clearing to allow for heating and destablization over the course of the day Saturday across the region or the ability of jet dynamics and strong wind shear that is expected to accompany to cold front to overcome any potential lack of heating.

2.) Cold frontal timing may be past peak heating of the day which could be a mitigating factor unless favorably strong wind shear profiles have the ability to compensate for frontal timing if past peak heating.

It is noted that a previous moderate risk for severe weather earlier this summer resulted in no severe weather over the area. The factors in this scenario are different and appear a bit more favorable. Also, in general, the last 3 of 4 moderate risk areas have verified over our area and in the case of the last moderate risk area, it was verified across the mid atlantic states.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime in the Saturday mid-to-late afternoon timeframe through early Sunday Morning. Another coordination messages will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator     
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more