Rob Macedo – Page 71

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 7/17/19 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 17, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England particularly along and south of the Mass Pike as a cold front with the remnants of Barry move across the region. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with potential urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the primary threats with hail as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands in a slight risk for severe weather and Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 10 PM for all Massachusetts except for the islands, Rhode Island and Connecticut for severe thunderstorm potential..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Wednesday Afternoon through 11 PM Wednesday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and all of Massachusetts except for the Islands for thunderstorms with the potential for 2″of rain per hour in thunderstorms and that can produce urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 300 PM Wednesday Afternoon likely lasting through 11 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Flash Flood Watch, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch..

Heat and humidity will be prevalent across Southern New England today. A cold front will move into Southern New England near the time of peak heating. Satellite imagery shows good clearing in areas where there is some cloud cover and that should allow for reasonably strong instability. One key limitation will have is lack of cooling temperatures aloft but wind fields will increase through the day, heating that will allow for high instability and the atmosphere is becoming primed for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development along with the potential of flash flooding for thunderstorms. The headlines depict the latest info.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 230-245 PM Wednesday Afternoon likely lasting through 11 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Flash Flood Watch statement, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch statement.

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch Statement:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0516.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/17/19 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 17, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190716_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 7/6/19 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

July 6, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding, and perhaps even flash flooding, and frequent lightning are the main threats with hail as a potential secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather posted from portions of Essex County Massachusetts through portions of New Hampshire and Maine. The main timeframe for severe weather is anytime after 12 PM Saturday Afternoon through around 10 PM Saturday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 12 PM Saturday through late Saturday Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 1-5 PM today for Western Essex and Central and Southeast Middlesex County Massachusetts for heat indices around 100 degrees. Anyone doing outdoor activities in the heat advisory area or across Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and take precautions with the heat today..
..For Western Massachusetts Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater PL: 127.3 Hz is back in service and SKYWARN Operations will be conducted on that repeater as required for Saturday..

A slow moving cold front will move through New England on Saturday after an intense day of heat and humidity for the region as temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoint values in the low to mid-70s expected. Heat Advisories have been issued for portions of Northeast Massachusetts and everyone in Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and take precautions with the heat today. The slow moving cold front with the intense heat and humidity in place will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England as the front slowly moves through the region. The headlines depict the latest thinking which have not changed much since last night. Key factors on the severe weather and flooding potential include the following:

1.) Timing of the cold front through the region and the ability of the front to maximize the use of what is likely to be high instability levels.
2.) The strength of the winds aloft as the front swings through. The strongest winds are expected to be behind the cold front but there could be somewhat stronger winds in sync with the front. The more in sync those stronger winds are with the front, the greater the severe weather potential.
3.) Straight-line winds in the form of wet-microbursts are possible in isolated locations due to very moisture-laden storms making up for the lighter winds aloft. The extent of this will depend on the level of instability.
4.) Flooding is another concern in isolated to scattered locations particularly if cells are slow-moving and training over the same area as the environment will be very moist and tropical. This will also depend if areas affected are urbanized or poor drainage areas via either urbanization or differences in terrain.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 12 PM Saturday through late Saturday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday July 6th, 2019 Severe Weather/Flood Potential

July 6, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding, and perhaps even flash flooding, and frequent lightning are the main threats with hail as a potential secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather posted from portions of Essex County Massachusetts through portions of New Hampshire and Maine. The main timeframe for severe weather is anytime after 12 PM Saturday Afternoon through around 10 PM Saturday Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 12 PM Saturday through late Saturday Evening..
..For Western Massachusetts Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater PL: 127.3 Hz is back in service and SKYWARN Operations will be conducted on that repeater as required for Saturday..

A slow moving cold front will move through New England on Saturday and bring an end to the heat and humidity in the region over the past few days after humidity levels will be even higher on Saturday than today with dewpoint values in the low to mid-70s expected for Saturday. This cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England as the front slowly moves through the region. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors on the severe weather and flooding potential include the following:

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 12 PM Saturday through late Saturday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190705_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #5 – Sunday 6/30/19 Severe Weather Potential & Saturday 6/29/19 Severe Weather Recap

June 30, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..After a round of severe weather and flooding in parts of Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely mid to late Sunday morning into early Sunday Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats…
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather on Sunday. Timeframe for severe weather is any time from 10 AM-6 PM on Sunday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 10 AM Sunday Morning..
..For Western Massachusetts Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, the 146.94-Mount Tom Repeater which is the primary repeater for this area is down. For SKYWARN Operations in Western Massachusetts, please use the 147.000-Granville Repeater PL 127.3 Hz. If that is not reachable from your location, please use the 146.79-Vernon, CT Repeater PL 82.5..

Saturday brought isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to portions of Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts with many reports of hail and large hail and pockets of wind damage in the area. The latest NWS Norton Local Storm Report, WX1BOX Amateur Radio log and WX1BOX Facebook Album can be seen at the following links:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/reports_6_29_19.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=2605762652791070

Any late reports or pictures/videos can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or through the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for the report or pictures/videos.

As we look at Sunday, not much change to what has been outlined in previous messages. Wind shear profiles will start off strong but become less favorable in the region, however, cooling aloft will be more significant and that will increase instability parameters and this along with good moisture will allow for more coverage area of thunderstorms than Saturday and this will potentially allow for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The wind threat for Sunday maybe somewhat reduced but the hail threat will be higher and the cold air aloft may also compensate to a degree for the lack of wind shear. Heavy rain for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are also likely. The timing of this activity is still in some flux but activity could be in the mid to late morning around 10 AM through the early evening hours of around 600 PM. While all of Southern New England should monitor today’s weather, central and eastern Southern New England have the highest potential for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms today.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 10 AM Sunday Morning. This will be the last coordination message on Sunday’s severe weather as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #4 – Sunday 6/29/19 Severe Weather Potential & 6/28/19 – Post Severe Weather Event Report

June 30, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..After a round of severe weather and flooding in parts of Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts, Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely mid to late Sunday morning into early Sunday Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats…
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Severe Weather on Sunday. Timeframe for severe weather is any time from 10 AM-6 PM on Sunday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 10 AM Sunday Morning..
..For Western Massachusetts Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, the 146.94-Mount Tom Repeater which is the primary repeater for this area is down. For SKYWARN Operations in Western Massachusetts, please use the 147.000-Granville Repeater PL 127.3 Hz. If that is not reachable from your location, please use the 146.79-Vernon, CT Repeater PL 82.5..

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/reports_6_29_19.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=2605762652791070

As we look at Sunday, wind shear profiles will become less favorable in the region but cooling aloft will be more significant and that will increase instability parameters and this along with good moisture will allow for more coverage area of thunderstorms than Saturday and this will potentially allow for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The wind threat for Sunday maybe somewhat reduced but the hail threat will be higher and the cold air aloft may also compensate to a degree for the lack of wind shear. Heavy rain for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are also likely. The timing of this activity is still in some flux but activity could be in the mid to late morning around 10 AM through the early evening hours of around 600 PM.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will likely commence by 10 AM Sunday Morning. The next coordination message on the Sunday severe weather potential will be posted by 900 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190629_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Saturday 6/29/19-Sunday 6/30/19 Severe Weather Potential

June 29, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible to likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Timeframe is any time between 12-8 PM today..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued most of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather and Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..There is another chance for severe weather for Sunday with risks similar to today though the potential for hail on Sunday could be higher given a cold pool of air aloft in the region. We will get into some details in this message with more details in the Saturday Evening coordination message..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 11-1130 AM Saturday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is possible Sunday for the severe weather potential..

..For Western Massachusetts Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters, the 146.94-Mount Tom Repeater which is the primary repeater for this area is down. For SKYWARN Operations in Western Massachusetts, please use the 147.000-Granville Repeater PL 127.3 Hz. If that is not reachable from your location, please use the 146.79-Vernon, CT Repeater PL 82.5..

It will potentially be an active weekend for severe weather across Southern New England. An initial round of thunderstorms moved through portions of Central and Eastern Massachusetts this morning. Satellite imagery shows some clearing behind this activity particularly in Connecticut and Southeast New York which will spread through the region later this morning into early afternoon. This is expected to allow the destabilization required for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the slight risk area as depicted by SPC.

For Saturday, the headlines depict the current severe weather potential well. Key factors for Saturday’s severe weather potential and extent of strong to severe thunderstorm coverage remain the following:

1.) Amount of cloud cover over the area as that will determine destabilization and level of instability for the region.
2.) Timing of the cold front through the region.
3.) Favorable factors for severe weather potential include sufficient wind shear profiles and good cooling of the atmosphere aloft along with a strong triggering mechanism with the cold front.

As we look at Sunday, wind shear profiles will become less favorable in the region but cooling aloft will be more significant and that will increase instability parameters. This will potentially allow for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The wind threat for Sunday maybe somewhat reduced but the hail threat will be higher and the cold air aloft may also compensate to a degree for the lack of wind shear. The timing of this activity is still in flux but activity could be in the mid to late morning through early evening hours.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence between 11-1130 AM today. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible again on Sunday. This will be the last coordination message for the Saturday severe weather potential as we move into operations mode. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 PM Saturday Evening on the Sunday severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 6/29/19-Sunday 6/30/19 Severe Weather Potential

June 28, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible to likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of southern and central portions of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather and Northern Southern New England and Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..There is another chance for severe weather for Sunday which will be detailed in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 11 AM Saturday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is possible Sunday for the severe weather potential..

It will potentially be an active weekend for severe weather across Southern New England. Not much change in thinking other than we have designated a time for Amateur Radio Ops start for Saturday Morning. We will detail Saturday over the next day’s coordination messages and detail Sunday’s potential as we get into the first half of the weekend.

For Saturday, the headlines depict the current severe weather potential. Key factors for Saturday’s severe weather potential and extent of strong to severe thunderstorm coverage are the following:

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is possible Saturday and Sunday for the severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190628_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 6/29/19-Sunday 6/30/19 Severe Weather Potential

June 28, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible to likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed western and central portions of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather and Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..There is another chance for severe weather for Sunday which will be detailed in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is possible Saturday and Sunday for the severe weather potential..

It will potentially be an active weekend for severe weather across Southern New England. We will detail Saturday over the next day’s coordination messages and detail Sunday’s potential as we get into the first half of the weekend.

For Saturday, the headlines depict the current severe weather potential. Key factors for Saturday’s severe weather potential and extent of strong to severe thunderstorm coverage are the following:

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is possible Saturday and Sunday for the severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190628_0600.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 6/25/19 Heavy Rainfall Potential

June 25, 2019 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A storm system moving through the area will have the potential for heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rainfall that may produce urban and poor drainage flooding in portions of Southern New England. Widespread rainfall of 0.50-1.00″ is expected but a band or localized amounts of 1.5-2.00″ or more is possible. Currently the greatest threat is along or south of the Mass Pike but all parts of the region could have some heavy rainfall potential in localized areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the heavy rainfall for today. This will be the only coordination message on this potential unless a significant change to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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