Storm Coordination Message #1 – Heavy Rainfall/Flood and Strong Wind Potential – Friday 5/5/17-Saturday Morning 5/6/17

Hello to all…

..Storm system will bring heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to Southern New England and the possibility of isolated pockets of strong winds along portions of South Coastal New England and in any thunderstorms..
..A Flood Watch is in effect from 2 PM Friday through Saturday Morning for Central and Southeast Middlesex, Southern Worcester, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island except for Block Island for widespread 1-2″ of rainfall across Southern New England with 2-3″ of rainfall possible in the flood watch area leading to the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood potential for later Friday Afternoon and Friday Night with Ops at NWS Taunton possible..

A strong storm system that has brought severe weather and flooding to portions of the Southeast and Midwest United States will move into the northeast as we get into Friday Afternoon and Friday Night. Heavy rainfall will occur across Southern New England with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding particularly in Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts where a Flood Watch is posted for areas as stated in the headlines of this message. Thunderstorms will also be possible enhancing rainfall particularly in the flood watch area.

While there will be strong winds aloft, most of the winds will struggle to get to the surface however if temperatures were to warm enough or any thunderstorms were to get strong enough, stronger winds could reach the surface in isolated locations. Winds region wide are currently expected to be below wind advisory levels but wind gusts of around 35-40 MPH are possible at the coast and there could be stronger wind gusts in any thunderstorms that get strong enough to bring the winds down to the surface.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flood potential for later Friday Afternoon and Friday Night with Ops at NWS Taunton possible. This will likely be the only coordination message on this storm system unless Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated and time allows for a shortened coordination message update. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Evening 5/1/17-Tuesday Morning 5/2/17 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut during the evening and overnight hours. Strong to damaging winds and heavy downpours with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts through Western Connecticut in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor this strong to severe thunderstorm potential today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though current thinking is this will be handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation..

A warm front will push through portions of Western and Central New England today with a cold front to follow starting out through New York State and Pennsylvania Monday Afternoon and early evening and pushing through New England later Monday Evening into Tuesday Morning. Instability levels will be low given the timing of the front but strong winds and strong jet dynamics may compensate and allow for an isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorm threat across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut with strong to damaging winds and heavy downpours with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor this strong to severe thunderstorm potential today. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible though current thinking is this will be handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation. A shortened coordination message will be issued if an upgrade to the situation occurs and/or Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated and time allows for an update. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 4/16/17 Strong Thunderstorm Potential & Special Announcement: Boston Marathon Weather Coordination Message #1

Hello to all…

..Happy Easter and Passover to those who celebrate those holidays..
..This is a combined severe weather coordination message for strong thunderstorm potential in Western New England for late Sunday Afternoon and Evening as well as Boston Marathon Weather Coordination Message..
..Isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible in Western Massachusetts through North-Central Connecticut late Sunday Afternoon into early Sunday Evening between about 5-9 PM. Strong winds and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. While the threat is more favorable further west into New York State there is some potential for the strong thunderstorms to reach into Western New England.
..There is also an elevated brush fire risk today and into Monday with sunny and warm temperatures and wind gusts of up to 30 MPH causing conditions favorable for brush fire conditions..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorm potential in Western Massachusetts through North-Central Connecticut. This will be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook including a link to the new Experimental Enhanced Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook which will now appear in coordination messages going forward..

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

The second part of this message is a special announcement – Boston Marathon Weather Coordination Message as issued in prior years:

While this may be a bit off topic for some SKYWARN Spotters, Amateur Radio Operators and Red Cross volunteers, many of which are SKYWARN Spotters, will be involved in the Boston Marathon on Monday April 17th. To reach out to the highest level of Amateur Radio Operators involved in the event, this coordination message is being sent out to the SKYWARN email list and posted to the various Amateur Radio lists. We appreciate everyone’s patience with this message. This is a joint message between the Amateur Radio Emergency Services (ARES)-SKYWARN program at NWS Taunton and Eastern Massachusetts ARES. This is likely to be the only coordination message on the Marathon unless a significant change in the weather forecast occurs. See information below:

Eastern Massachusetts ARES members not participating in the Boston Marathon are requested to be on standby for marathon activities on Monday April 17th from 6 AM-7 PM for any significant issues outside of the Boston Marathon that may require Amateur Radio Emergency Communications support and for any unexpected issues on the Boston Marathon route. With over 280 Amateur Radio Operators staffing the Boston Marathon route, the start line and the finish line, if an issue arises needing Amateur Radio support outside of the Marathon route or an unexpected issue arises in marathon operations, it is important that any ARES members not involved in the marathon can help with any response that is required. The Amateur Radio Station at the National Weather Service in Taunton, WX1BOX, will be active on Monday April 17th for the Boston Marathon to provide weather support to the Amateur Radio community participating in the marathon and to gather any weather reports of significance during the marathon. This station will also be used to coordinate any ARES response to any significant incidents regarding Amateur Radio support outside of the marathon zone including any incidents that need to be provided to the State EOC for situational awareness information.

The Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) Multi-Agency Coordination Center (MACC) at the SEOC (State Emergency Operations Center) will be active for the Boston Marathon. Amateur Radio Operators will be at the SEOC to support Amateur Radio communications and will be on the air under call sign, WC1MA, while many agencies will be there performing primary operations for the marathon.

The weather outlook for the Boston Marathon is one that should be favorable for volunteers but potentially too warm for the runners which could result in increased ambulance requests along the course for this year’s marathon and a higher than average year of medical related issues given the conditions. The Weather Forecast across the Boston Marathon is for mostly sunny conditions throughout the day. Temperatures are expected to be around 55-60 degrees in the pre-dawn and daybreak hours rising to the upper 60s to low 70s by afternoon. Dewpoint values will be low making conditions dry but warm. Winds will gust out of the west at 25-30 MPH. Volunteers should dress accordingly for these conditions and drink plenty of liquids and should be prepared for this potential of increased number of ambulance requests and higher than average year of medical related issues. Also, the low dewpoints and winds could result in increased brush fire risk across the region again for Monday. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement and Fire Weather Forecast regarding that potential:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Fire Weather Forecast:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fnus51.KBOX.html

From a SKYWARN perspective, the 146.64-Waltham Repeater and 145.23-Boston Repeater are being utilized for Marathon operations. From an ARES perspective, the Minutemen Repeater Association Repeater Network is being utilized for marathon operations. Please review the SKYWARN Frequency listing for your closest alternate repeater from a SKYWARN or ARES perspective.
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/37

For Amateur Radio, Red Cross and all other volunteers along the route, it is recommended that you dress in layers for this event so that you can put on or take off clothes as needed for comfort. Be sure to drink liquids and eat properly during the event and that you are self-sufficient so that you can be of full help to the function and not distract everyone from the main purpose of supporting the runners by having a health issue on your end that can be avoided. No rain is expected at this time so there should be no need for rain gear.

For those people that are planning to go to the Boston Marathon as spectators, the following link details guidelines for spectators for the 2017 Boston Marathon:
http://www.mass.gov/eopss/docs/mema/2017-marathon-spectator-guidelines-final.pdf

Barring a significant change in the weather forecast, this will be the only coordination message on the Boston Marathon. We appreciate everyone’s support in this event and hope those that volunteer enjoy themselves and feel the self-satisfaction of supporting this historic event and those that are monitoring the Marathon or events outside of the Marathon realize that the monitoring is an important function as well and is a testament to being able to scale other incidents beyond the marathon if required. Thanks to all for their support!

Respectfully Submitted,

Marek Kozubal
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Email Address: kb1ncg@gmail.com

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 4/12/17 Strong Thunderstorm Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated strong to possibly marginal severe thunderstorms possible today in Central and Eastern New England. Strong winds and hail are the primary threats along with urban and poor drainage flooding in heavy downpours from any thunderstorms. The threat timeframe would be between about Noon and 6 PM today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential today. Ops at NWS Taunton seem unlikely, however, if they are initiated or a significant upgrade to the situation occurs, a shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows for the update. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: National Hurricane Conference Amateur Radio Workshop Sessions To Be Livestreamed – Wednesday 4/19/17

Hello to all…

The National Hurricane Conference Amateur Radio Workshop sessions (this year being held in New Orleans Louisiana) will be livestreamed on Wednesday April 19th, 2017. The livestream links will be as follows:

http://www.nsradio.org/stream
http://www.voipwx.net/files/stream.htm

Wednesday, April 19 — 08:30-10:00 CDT (09:30-11:00 EDT)
8:30 Opening Remarks (5 Minutes – Presented by Rob Macedo – KD1CY)
8:35 Canadian Hurricane Centre and Hurricane Meteorological Topics (30 Minutes – Presented by Bob Robichaud-VE1MBR, Canadian Hurricane Centre)
9:05 WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the NHC (30 Minutes – Presented by Julio Ripoll – WD4R)
9:35 The Hurricane Watch Net, Personal Weather Stations, Backup Power, & Antenna Overview (30 Minutes – Presented by Bobby Graves – KB5HAV)
10:05 ARRL Update (15 Minutes – Presented by Matt Anderson – KD5KNZ / LA ARRL Asst. SM)

—> NOTE: Speakers will be on a break from 10:20-10:30 CDT (11:20-11:30 EDT)

Wednesday, April 19 — 10:30-12:00 CDT (11:30 AM-1:00 PM EDT)
10:30 Importance of Amateur Radio / Spotter Surface Reports (25 Minutes – Presented by NHC Director Dr. Rick Knabb)
11:00 The VoIP Hurricane Net and Best Practices in SKYWARN for Tropical Systems (30 Minutes – Presented by Rob Macedo – KD1CY)
11:30 SATERN Presentation (30 Minutes – Presented by Bill Feist – WD8BZH)
11:50 Q&A Panel with Door Prizes (20 Minutes – Presented by all members of the panel)

—> NOTE: Sessions end at 12:15 CDT/1:15 EDT

We hope folks can join the livestream Wednesday 4/19/17. If people cannot make the livestream, the presentations will be archived and information will be sent out once that occurs.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: 2017 SKYWARN Training Class Schedule

Hello to all…

We have a full slate of SKYWARN Training classes scheduled for 2017. There may be two or three more classes scheduled for the Spring of this year and then the focus will shift to Fall SKYWARN Training class scheduling. The complete SKYWARN Training Class Schedule can be seen via the following links:

NWS Taunton Web Site SKYWARN Class List:
http://www.weather.gov/box/skywarn#fragment-2

WX1BOX SKYWARN Training Class Schedule:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/36

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 4/6/17 – Heavy Rainfall and Strong Winds/Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Hello to all…

..Another storm system will bring more rain to the region and recent rainfall events increase the risk for flooding in the region. Strong winds and isolated pockets of wind damage are also possible if heavy rainfall can mix stronger winds down to the surface with a low chance for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with strong to damaging winds over Southeast New England..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area from Thursday Morning through Friday Evening for the potential for urban and poor drainage street flooding and the possibility of a few smaller streams and rivers going out of their banks from total rainfall of 1-1.5″ with isolated higher amounts of more than 1.5″ possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm event. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 4/6/17 Heavy Rainfall and Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Another storm system will bring more rain to the region and recent rainfall events increase the risk for flooding in the region. Strong winds and isolated pockets of wind damage are also possible if heavy rainfall can mix stronger winds down to the surface..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage area from Thursday Morning through Friday Evening for the potential for urban and poor drainage street flooding and the possibility of a few smaller streams and rivers going out of their banks from total rainfall of 1-1.5″ with isolated higher amounts of more than 1.5″ possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm event. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if the threat for strong winds and/or flooding increases. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 4/4/17 Heavy Rainfall/Flood and Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Storm system for today will bring widespread rainfall with amounts 1″ or more likely with an isolated axis of 2″ or more of rain possible in parts of the area with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding for parts of Southern New England. Strong winds are also likely across Cape Cod and the Islands today..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod from 8 AM-5 PM today and for Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket from 8 AM-3 PM today for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH. Other coastal areas could see wind gusts to around 40 MPH today. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flood and strong wind potential. This will be the only coordination message on today’s storm unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #4 – Friday 3/31/17-Saturday 4/1/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Winter is not over yet in Southern New England as a winter storm system will affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. Exact snow and/or ice amounts remain uncertain given spread in the model guidance. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning in Central and Western areas and possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast parts of the area..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts from 11 AM Friday Morning through 11 AM Saturday Morning for 6-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in the 9-12″ range near the New Hampshire border. The wet snow/sleet could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties Massachusetts from 2 PM Friday Afternoon 2 PM Saturday Afternoon for 6-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts near the New Hampshire border. The wet snow/sleet could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Friday Afternoon through 2 PM Saturday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 2-6″ of snow and sleet with the highest amounts away from the coast. If higher snowfall amounts occur, this could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Worst conditions expected late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM Saturday for Northern Connecticut and Hampden and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and sleet with the highest amounts near the Mass Pike and a trace of ice accretion..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday for Norfolk County Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 2-5″ of snow and a trace of ice. The heaviest precipitation will be Friday Evening through the overnight hours Friday into early Saturday..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight to Noon Saturday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Other parts of the coast could see wind gusts around 40 MPH overnight through Saturday Morning. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide is possible at the Saturday Morning and especially Saturday Afternoon high tide cycles..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm throughout the entire event but Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning depending on snow and ice accumulation and rates and damage potential with the wet snow and ice. A shortened coordination message will be sent if time allows and ops are initiated..

Winter is not quite done with Southern New England. Another winter storm system will likely affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. The headlines reflect current thinking but could change as models remain divergent in terms of storm track and amount of cold air over the region but the current advisories and warnings and snow/sleet/ice amounts are based on current model trends. As mentioned previously, key factors for this storm system:

1.) Exact track and intensity of the storm system. The storm is currently expected to track south of New England as an intensifying coastal storm and its exact track and intensity will affect amount of cold air available, rain/ice/snow line, strength of winds at the coast and precipitation amounts. Some models bring more warm air into the storm system than others for more ice in the interior and rain at the coast while other models imply colder air and more potential for wet snow. Amount of cold air, storm track and intensity will affect the rain/snow line and the amounts of snow and ice.
2.) Timing of heavy precipitation. This is currently expected to be in the later afternoon and evening hours Friday into Saturday Morning which may allow for better snow and ice accumulation with heavier precipitation possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast Massachusetts. If any one type of precipitation is heavy enough (wet snow or ice accumulation), this could potentially cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Uncertainty is higher than normal given spread in model guidance on storm track and cold air along with the high sun angle of March and impact on precipitation type.

This type of winter storm could have higher variability in precipitation type and snow and ice amounts based on location and elevation. Spotter reports for this storm system per the reporting criteria will be critical during this event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm throughout the entire event but Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning depending on snow and ice accumulation and rates and damage potential with the wet snow and ice. A shortened coordination message will be sent if time allows and ops are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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