Hello to all..

..Friday brought intense heat and humidity and a round of flash flooding and severe weather to portions of South-Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Two more rounds of high heat and humidity and severe weather is expected on Saturday and again on Sunday as a frontal boundary draped over Southern New England will set the for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the primary threat and strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat through the period..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed parts of Western New England in a slight risk for severe weather with much of the rest of central and east-central New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for today and a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England for Sunday..
..An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for Hartford County Connecticut and Eastern Hampden County Massachusetts for heat indices up to 107 with temperatures in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 7 PM Friday for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island for heat indices of 104 with temperatures in the mid-80s to low 90s and Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories could be needed for portions of Southern New England again on Sunday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 100 PM today. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again on Sunday..

Friday brought intense heat and humidity and a round of flash flooding and severe weather to portions of South-Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Another round of intense heat and humidity is expected again Saturday with a bit of a reprieve in parts of Northeast Massachusetts with intense heat and humidity across the entire area again on Sunday. The headlines mention the latest in Heat Advisories/Warnings for the area. Below are links to reports from Friday’s severe weather event:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio “Raw” Storm Report Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_8_13_16.txt

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday Afternoon through early Saturday Evening and again Sunday Afternoon through early evening. This continues to be caused by a frontal boundary near Southern New England. The boundary has pushed a bit further south which means parts of Northeast Massachusetts will have less heat and humidity and that may extend through much of Eastern Massachusetts so the Saturday severe weather potential is highest over Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Northern and Western Rhode Island. Wind shear values will remain marginal today though a bit stronger than Friday and wind shear values may again be stronger still on Sunday. Instability will be strong and set the stage for several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and extending through this evening with heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the primary threat and strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat through the period and then another round of similar conditions for Sunday afternoon and evening and then the heat and humidity breaks for a couple of days early next week.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 100 PM today. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again on Sunday. The next coordination message will be posted either late Saturday Evening by 1130 PM or by 1100 AM Sunday Morning depending on how long Ops at NWS Taunton and Saturday’s activation will be. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Outlooks and the NWS Taunton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Friday and the weekend will be a very hot and humid stretch of weather for Southern New England. The heat and humidity and a frontal boundary sagging slowly through Southern New England will set the stage for several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the primary threat and strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat through the period..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday and again on Sunday with areas north and west of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM Friday for Eastern Franklin, Northern Worcester County Massachusetts, Eastern Massachusetts away from the South Coast, North-Central Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut for heat indices up to 103 degrees and temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Heat Advisories could be needed for portions of the area again this weekend..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by 130 PM today and could be activated as early as 1230-100 PM. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again Saturday and Sunday..

From Friday through this weekend, the weather will feature intense heat and humidity over much of the region with the warmest days likely on Friday and Sunday. A break in the heat and humidity will occur as we get into early next week. Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of Southern New England today and will likely be needed again this weekend.

Several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected between Friday Afternoon through this weekend. This will be caused by a frontal boundary approaching and moving slowly through Southern New England. Wind shear values will be marginal but instability will be strong and set the stage for several rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and extending through this evening with heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the primary threat and strong to damaging winds as a secondary threat through the period. Exact areas that see isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be difficult to pinpoint and will vary day to day over the region. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather for both Friday and Sunday but areas in Western New England may see isolated strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely by 130 PM today and could be activated as early as 1230-100 PM. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely again Saturday and Sunday. The next coordination message will be posted either late Friday Evening by 1130 PM or by 1000 AM Saturday Morning depending on how long Ops at NWS Taunton and Friday’s activation will be. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and Day-3 Outlooks and the NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over much of Southern New England around midday through early evening Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) now has much of Southern New England, particularly from the Mass Pike south through Southeastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut and into Southeastern New York in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather across much of the rest of Eastern New York and New England with Eastern Maine also in a slight risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential..

Satellite and radar imagery is showing some cloud cover and showers across Southern New Hampshire and Northern Massachusetts with some other shower activity in Southeast New York. Much of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and portions of Connecticut are getting a good amount of sunshine. Clearing follows the shower activity this morning and as we get into the afternoon hours, a cold front will be approaching Southern New England. Presuming the morning shower and any possible thunderstorm activity moves out of the area with any clouds pushing through the region by later this morning to allow for sufficient daytime heating and destabilization for instability, the cold front acting as a triggering mechanism during a favorable time of day and strong wind shear profiles should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms either in a single squall line or a couple of short lines or clusters moving through the region. While favorable remain along and south of the Mass Pike, much of Southern New England could see some isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms move through their area. SPC has upgraded much of Southern New England, especially along and south of the Mass Pike to a slight risk for severe weather. As always with severe weather in New England, severe thunderstorms will hit some localized areas and miss others and there are some key factors which will dictate the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms which include:

1.) Current cloud debris and shower activity and its movement through the area to allow clearing or to fire off activity in southern parts of Southern New England by midday.
2.) The timing of the cold front and triggering mechanism into the area. If its timing isn’t near peak heating presuming sufficient heating and destabilization, that may limit strong to severe thunderstorm coverage. If its timed correctly as expected, the timing of the front provided sufficient heating should allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message on the severe weather potential for Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over much of Southern New England around midday through early evening Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of New England and Eastern New York in a marginal risk for severe weather with a potential upgrade to a slight risk to severe weather possible in later outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential..

A cold front will be approaching Southern New England during the early afternoon through early evening hours Saturday. Presuming there is no early morning convective activity or any early morning convective activity moves out of the area with any clouds pushing through the region to allow for sufficient daytime heating and destabilization for instability, the cold front acting as a triggering mechanism during a favorable time of day and strong wind shear profiles should set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms either in a single squall line or a couple of short lines or clusters moving through the region. While favorable areas maybe along and south of the Mass Pike, much of Southern New England could see some isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms move through their area. As always with severe weather in New England, severe thunderstorms will hit some localized areas and miss others and there are some key factors which will dictate the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms which include:

1.) Any early morning thunderstorm activity and any cloud debris from that activity as mentioned earlier.
2.) The timing of the cold front and triggering mechanism into the area. If its timing isn’t near peak heating presuming sufficient heating and destabilization, that may limit strong to severe thunderstorm coverage. If its timed correctly as expected, the timing of the front provided sufficient heating should allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Saturday lasting through early evening for the severe weather potential. The next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160805_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…

The week of July 18th-July 22nd was the NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Week and a few of Public Info Statements were issued during that week and are provided in this announcement via the link below. In addition, the Thursday July 21st, 2016 ARRL Hurricane Preparedness Webinar recording is also available and provided in the link below.

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Hurricane Preparedness Week:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2016.txt

ARRL 2016 Hurricane Preparedness Webinar Recording:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VsJfG68YNus&feature=youtu.be

As we enter the more active timeframe of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we hope this information and webinar will be helpful for preparedness measures in the event a tropical system threatens Southern New England this season.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Friday will feature convective showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours and the potential for high rainfall rates in a short period of time resulting in flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas if the high rainfall rates train over the same area and occur for a long enough period of time. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather across Southeast Cpastal New England including Cape Cod and the Islands for strong winds. The low probability for a possible isolated weak tornado or waterspout now appears confined to the offshore waters..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Evening for South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread 1-2″ rainfall with a band or isolated rainfall amounts of 2″ or more in any areas where thunderstorms or convective showers with heavy rainfall train over the same area. The Flash Flood Watch for Northern and Central Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts has been cancelled as computer models have shifted the heaviest rain further south over South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening but for now the situation will be handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation..

At 710 AM Doppler Radar was showing rainfall and some embedded heavier rainfall over Connecticut and heavier rainfall over Long Island all moving northeast. Rain should become steadier and heavier over Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts later this morning with the heaviest rainfall over South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands late this morning into early evening. In the Flash Flood Watch area, 1-2″ of rain is likely with higher amounts of rainfall in areas that get repeated high rate rainfall in their area. Overnight, computer models have been keeping the heaviest rain offshore and this has led to the cancellation of the flash flood watch for North-Central Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Interior Southeast Massachusetts. In these areas and points north less than 1″ of rain over a general area is expected but any areas that receive any embedded heavier downpours could see higher rainfall amounts.

The other secondary threat is for severe weather in the form of strong to damaging winds over the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island and South Coastal Connecticut. The low probability for an isolated weak tornado or waterspout now appears confined to the offshore waters. This will continue to be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening but for now the situation will be handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation. This will be the last coordination message on this storm system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs or time allows for a shortened coordination message to be sent if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Friday will feature convective showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours and the potential for high rainfall rates in a short period of time resulting in flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas if the high rainfall rates train over the same area and occur for a long enough period of time. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated a marginal risk for severe weather across Southeast New England including Cape Cod and the Islands for strong winds and the low probability for a possible isolated weak tornado or waterspout. The severe weather threat is conditional and isolated and could stay south of our area..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from 500 AM Friday through Friday Evening for Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for 2-4″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible in any areas where thunderstorms or convective showers with heavy rainfall train over the same area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening..

Computer models over the last several days have been signaling the potential for beneficial rainfall particularly along and south of the Mass Pike but with a variance in solutions ranging from portions of interior Southern New England to just offshore of Southern New England. At this time, the headlines reflect the current thinking including the heaviest rainfall over Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands. While the rain, if it tracks over some land areas as expected, will be beneficial, if heavy downpours with high rainfall rates occur as expected and hit the same area repeatedly, it could result in urban and poor drainage flash flooding with 2-4″ of rainfall and possibly isolated higher rainfall amounts.

The other secondary threat is for severe weather in the form of strong to damaging winds and even the low probability for an isolated weak tornado or waterspout. Again, this threat could affect parts of Southeast New England or stay offshore of the area. This will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning depending on how any heavy downpours and thunderstorms evolve Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160728_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Heat, humidity and severe weather potential will return on Monday to Southern New England. Timing on severe weather potential a bit earlier than stated in the prior message..
..Scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England from early to mid-Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night. Strong to damaging wind, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lighting are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for much of the rest of Southern New England..
..Intense Heat and Humidity still expected with a heat advisory continuing for Hampden County Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT lasting through late Monday Night..

Satellite and Radar imagery show strong heating over Eastern New York and New England. Radar imagery shows a line of showers and thunderstorms over West-Central New York likely associated with a trough/cold front will move into the region Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening. Some models weaken this feature while most models show this being the activity that will have severe weather potential over Southern New England. Given the location of this feature, the timing of the severe weather potential now look as early as 1-2 PM lasting into Monday evening. Given strong heating taking place over the region, high instability levels will be present by this afternoon and evening across the region. Shear levels will be marginal at first but increase and be more sufficient for severe weather potential by Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. This will set the stage for another round of scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. Similar to the last couple of events, there is a key factor that will determine the severe weather potential in the area and in this case, the key factor is that given the earlier timing of the showers and thunderstorms and the fact that shear and other favorable parameters may not arrive until later, does this result in weaker activity over the region versus a more robust severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM lasting through late Monday Night. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook as well as the NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..After a one day reprieve in heat, humidity and severe weather, both will return on Monday to Southern New England..
..Scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England late Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night. Strong to damaging wind, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lighting are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for much of the rest of Southern New England..
..Intense Heat and Humidity has prompted the issuance of a heat advisory for Hampden County Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely starting around 3-4 PM lasting through late Monday Night..

Saturday 7/23/16 brought another round of severe weather as a gust front out ahead of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms caused widespread pockets of wind damage in Massachusetts and more isolated reports of wind damage in Rhode Island. A few isolated reports of large hail were also received in Northeast Massachusetts with wind damage from a few severe thunderstorms ahead of the line of thunderstorms and the gust front. Any additional photos or late reports can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, via our Facebook/Twitter feeds, or to my rmacedo@rcn.com email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/video unless otherwise indicated. The pictures will be sent to NWS, media, and emergency management. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall, WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio log and a link to the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607240156.nwus51.html

WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_23_16.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/216287391738620/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1246998732000809

After Sunday’s less humid and slightly cooler temperatures, conditions will heat up on Monday with higher humidity levels as temperatures will soar to the mid and upper 90s. A trough/cold front will move into the region later Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening. High instability levels will be present by mid to late afternoon and evening across the region. Shear levels will be marginal in the mid-afternoon but increase and be more sufficient for severe weather potential by the late afternoon Monday into Monday Evening. This will set the stage for another round of scattered to possibly numerous strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. Similar to the last couple of events, the key factors that will determine the severe weather potential include:

1.) Any morning cloud debris/cloud cover in the morning that affects daytime heating and lowers instability levels.
2.) If the strong wind shear values do not overlap the favorable instability levels presuming factor 1 does not change the potential.
3.) Timing of the trough/cold front to tap into increasing wind shear and higher instability levels in the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely starting around 3-4 PM lasting through late Monday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook as well as the NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160724_1730.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..After Friday’s severe weather event, another round of at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely for portions of Southern New England this afternoon into early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of interior Southern New England through East Coastal Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather today. The threat timeframe is between 2-9 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Saturday for today’s severe weather potential..

Friday’s severe weather event brought scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England with the hardest hit areas including the Westboro/Southboro, Mass area, West Warwick, RI and the Dayville/Killingly CT area. Any additional photos or late reports can be sent to pics@nsradio.org, via our Facebook/Twitter feeds, or to my rmacedo@rcn.com email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/video unless otherwise indicated. The pictures will be sent to NWS, media, and emergency management. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall, WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio log and a link to the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607231238.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1607231228.nous41.html

WX1BOX “raw” Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_22_16.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1246470188720330

Turning our attention to Saturday’s severe weather potential, we appear again to have the right mix of instability, wind shear and in this case a stronger triggering mechanism for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of the SPC marginal severe weather risk area. In addition, there will be a level of cooling aloft which may allow for a greater potential for hail and large hail in the strongest thunderstorms. The headlines depict the timing and nature of the severe weather potential. Key factors that could limit the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is the level of drying in the atmosphere as the day wears on and whether the strong wind shear values are maintained as the impulse in the atmosphere that will trigger convection moves into the region. At this time, there is expected to be sufficient overlap in instability, wind shear, and moisture for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across interior Southern New England away from the south coastal areas and there is the possibility for there to be numerous strong to severe thunderstorms over the region if mitigating factors on moisture are overcome and maintaining the strong winds as the impulse approaches occurs.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 1 PM EDT for today’s severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message posted on Saturday’s severe weather potential.

Also, it is noted that the NWS Taunton radar is having an issue where thunderstorms are looking stronger than they would normally. This is due to a problem with the radar. Radar maintenance was completed Saturday but a part is required to address the issue. The radar will remain available for use but note that storms could look approximately 10 DBz stronger than reality. If the radar ends up being down, it is likely because of this issue with the radar but for now it will remain available for use and any users of the NWS Taunton radar should note that it will be running “hotter” or stronger on thunderstorm reflectivity than normal. This furthers the importance of spotter reports based on the reporting criteria to understand what is actually happening at the surface. See the NWS Taunton Radar Free Text Message link below for information:

NWS Taunton Radar Free Text Message:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201607231456-KBOX-NOUS61-FTMBOX

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook – Saturday July 23rd, 2016 Severe Weather Potential:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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