Page 43 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #3 – Thursday 8/12/21-Saturday 8/14/21 Severe Weather & Heat Wave Potential

August 12, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity is expected Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday. With the intense heat and humidity, it will bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through this period with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with much of the corridor along and northwest of I-95 in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and evening. Timeframe is from 4-11 PM today for severe weather potential.
..SPC has also placed the same area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday Afternoon and Evening. A general thunderstorm with isolated severe thunderstorm risk extends into Saturday but will depend on convection strength and timing on Friday..
..An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect from 12-8 PM Thursday and an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Evening through Friday Evening for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North Central Plymouth Counties for heat indices of up to 105 or slightly higher for Thursday and heat indices of 102 or slightly higher for Friday.
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 12-8 PM Thursday and an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Evening through Friday Evening for Western Hampden, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 97-99 or slightly higher for Thursday into Friday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from 12-8 PM Thursday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for heat indices of up to 99 degrees..
..In all Excessive Heat Warning/Watch and Heat Advisory areas, use extreme caution if outside and needing to physically exert yourself. Drink plenty of liquids, take frequent breaks and seek cooler indoor locations wherever possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential during this heat wave Thursday through Saturday..

Intense heat and humidity will continue Thursday through Friday possibly extending to Saturday across the region. The worst heat is expected this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the latest Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories and basic safety tips.

Severe weather potential increases today with very strong instability expected due to the intense heat and humidity. Wind shear levels are marginal but strong heating and strong to extreme levels of instability will allow for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday Afternoon and Evening and offset the marginal/weaker wind shear. Activity is expected to evolve into a line of strong to severe thunderstorms progressing from Central and Eastern New York into Southern New England. Timing will determine how far east the threat extends with a timeframe for severe weather Thursday in the late afternoon through evening.

A marginal risk for severe weather exists on Friday Afternoon and Evening in the same areas affected by Thursday’s potential severe thunderstorms. Part of Friday’s potential will hinge on how severe weather evolves on Thursday. It will also hinge on the overlap of stronger jet dynamics and wind shear with instability levels in the atmosphere as there will be somewhat less instability owing to lower dewpoints and possibly slightly lower temperatures due to possible cloud cover from Thursday’s severe thunderstorms. This will be better understood in future outlooks.

Finally, there is a general thunderstorm risk for Saturday with a mention of isolated severe thunderstorms for the region. This will depend on Friday’s severe weather potential and the position and timing of a cold front which could sweep through late Friday Evening into early Saturday Morning ending the severe weather potential at that time or if that timing is more towards Saturday Afternoon and early evening which could result in another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. This potential for Saturday will be better understood by Friday Afternoon and evening.

Another coordination message will be posted either by 11 PM Thursday Evening or 11 AM Friday Morning if there is a change in heat headlines and for severe weather potential for Friday and Saturday as needed and time allows for an update as we monitor severe weather potential for late Thursday Afternoon and evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Excessive Heat Warning/Excessive Heat Watch/Heat Advisory Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC-Day-1, Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Excessive Heat Warning/Excessive Heat Watch/Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210812_0600.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day3otlk_20210812_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 8/11/21-Friday 8/13/21 Severe Weather & Heat Potential

August 11, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity is expected Wednesday through Friday and possibly extending into Saturday. With the intense heat and humidity, it will bring with it the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms through this period..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from 11 AM-8 PM Wednesday for heat indices between 95-100 degrees. An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect from Thursday Morning through Friday Evening for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices of 105-109 degrees. Heat advisories will likely be needed Thursday into Friday in areas not covered by the excessive heat watch. Use extreme caution if outside and needing to physically exert yourself. Drink plenty of liquids, take frequent breaks and seek cooler indoor locations wherever possible..
..There remains low grade potential for severe weather in Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut late Wednesday Afternoon into early evening where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now brought the marginal risk for severe weather into Berkshire and Western Franklin County Massachusetts and could extend as far west as Western Worcester County and down into Hartford and Tolland Counties of CT. The key factor for Wednesday is whether strong to severe thunderstorms stays west of our area or spills into western parts of our region..
..There remains greater severe weather potential on Thursday where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather with areas in New York and Pennsylvania in a slight risk for severe weather which could spread east. A marginal risk for severe weather is also possible for Friday across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut as well and will depend on the evolution of convection on Thursday..
..The severe weather potential for Wednesday through Friday will be isolated to scattered in nature with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential during this heat wave Wednesday through Friday. Another coordination message will be posted either by 11 PM Wednesday Evening or 11 AM Thursday Morning if there is a change in heat headlines and for severe weather potential for Thursday as needed and time allows for an update as we monitor severe weather potential for late Wednesday Afternoon and evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC-Day-1, Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210811_1730.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 8/11/21 Through Friday 8/13/21 Severe Weather & Heat Wave Potential

August 11, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 8/4/21 – Heavy Rainfall Flash Flood & Severe Weather Potential

August 4, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Storm system will move through the region Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning bringing heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms with the low risk of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in Eastern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Wednesday Night through Thursday Morning for all of Rhode Island, Windham County Connecticut, Southern Worcester County and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 1-3″ of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 4″ possible. This rainfall combined with a wet month of July will result in a renewed risk for flooding of urban, poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams. The Flash Flood Watch was expanded northwest into Northeast Connecticut and South-Central Massachusetts for this update..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall, flooding and any strong to damaging wind and wind damage reports across Eastern New England Tonight into Thursday Morning..

Another round of heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) High resolution models are in different locations with the heaviest rainfall ranging as far west as Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Central and Northeast Massachusetts to areas further southeast even including Cape Cod and the Islands. The current Flash Flood Watch area represents the highest confidence area for potential flooding concerns. In this update, Windham County Connecticut and Southern Worcester County Massachusetts were included in the Flash Flood Watch as the consensus of models brings the heavy rainfall into these areas with a sharp northwest cutoff on heavy rainfall to the northwest of this area.
2.) With the heaviest rainfall occurring in the Flash Flood Watch and shifting a bit further north and west, areas of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see an isolated severe thunderstorm threat develop with strong to damaging winds and the possibility of a couple rotating thunderstorms. This will be monitored closely.
3.) With the wet month of July, if this heavy rainfall falls in the current Flash Flood Watch area or areas further west, the flood potential for urban and poor drainage areas and small rivers and streams will be fairly high. At this time this is looking like the most likely scenario though if it shifts further east into the Cape and Islands, the rain would be beneficial as its been much drier in this area versus the rest of the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports across Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StormTotalQPF_SFC2.png

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Night 8/4/21-Thursday Morning 8/5/21 Heavy Rainfall & Flood Potential

August 4, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Storm system will move through the region Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning bringing heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms to Eastern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Wednesday Night through Thursday Morning for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 1-3″ of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 4″ possible. This rainfall combined with a wet month of July will result in a renewed risk for flooding of urban and poor drainage areas as well as small rivers and streams. Uncertainty remains on the axis of heavy rainfall in Southern New England and could shift west or east in future updates..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports across Eastern New England Tonight into Thursday Morning..

Another round of heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) High resolution models are in different locations with the heaviest rainfall ranging as far west as Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Central and Northeast Massachusetts to areas further southeast even including Cape Cod and the Islands. The current Flash Flood Watch area represents the highest confidence area for potential flooding concerns and this could shift west or east as we get closer to the storm event and models come into a further consensus on location.
2.) If a further west shift to the heavy rainfall occurs, areas of Southeast Massachusetts could see an isolated severe thunderstorm threat develop along with some strong general wind gusts and this will be monitored in future updates.
3.) With the wet month of July, if this rainfall falls in the current Flash Flood Watch area or areas further west, the flood potential for urban and poor drainage areas and small rivers and streams will be fairly high. If the axis shifts further east into Cape Cod and the Islands, the rainfall will be beneficial as this area has actually experienced below normal rainfall whereas areas northwest of the Cape Cod Canal have had above normal rainfall. This will be monitored as we get closer to the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports across Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StormTotalQPF_SFC1.png

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Evening 7/29/21-Early Friday Morning 7/30/21 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

July 29, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms still possible anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning along and south of the Mass Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats but even an isolated weak tornado is a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued the region along and south of the Mass Pike in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..The Weather Prediction Center also has the entire region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for the possibility of training thunderstorms in some localized areas where there has been prior heavy rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning..

A warm front is in the vicinity of Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning before a cold front sweeps through the area. This will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential along and south of the Mass Pike. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Instability levels will likely be muted but wind shear and helicity or turning in the atmosphere would be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development and could compensate for limited instability. The helicity level and other factors mean an isolated weak tornado is possible.
2.) How far north the warm sector moves into Southern New England and whether it encompasses the southern part of Southern New England, much of or all of Southern New England or if it stays shunted south of Southern New England. Current models and conditions show the marginal risk area will remain along and south of the Mass Pike in Southern New England.
3.) There is the possibility of excessive rainfall and flooding issues if thunderstorms train over a localized area particularly in areas that have had prior heavy rainfall and this will bear monitoring.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning. This is the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Thursday Afternoon 7/29/21 Thru Early Friday Morning 7/30/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 29, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning along and south of the Mass Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats but even an isolated weak tornado is a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region along and south of the Mass Pike in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning..

A warm front will be in the vicinity of Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning before a cold front sweeps through the area. This will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential along and south of the Mass Pike. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Instability levels will likely be muted but wind shear and helicity or turning in the atmosphere would be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development and could compensate for limited instability. The helicity level and other factors mean an isolated weak tornado is possible.
2.) How far north the warm sector moves into Southern New England and whether it encompasses the southern part of Southern New England, much of or all of Southern New England or if it stays shunted south of Southern New England. Current models indicate the southern half of Southern New England has the greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development but could change as we get closer to the event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Thursday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210728_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Late Afternoon and Evening 7/27/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 27, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 5 PM-12 AM Tuesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Massachusetts from Norfolk County north and west, Northern Connecticut and Northern Rhode Island near the Massachusetts state line to a Slight risk for severe weather with all other areas of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England Tuesday as a cold front will bring an end to a short round of heat and summer temperatures in the region. The headlines depict the current thinking which is an upgrade from yesterday evening. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front as it moves into Southern New England and whether it’s passage is close enough to the higher level of instability parameters to trigger strong to severe thunderstorm development. That is currently expected based on the present model trends.
2.) Wind shear will be strongest in Northern New England but sufficiently wind shear values will be present particularly in the slight risk area that if it overlaps with higher levels of instability or can offset instability as it drops towards sunset would allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development. This is now depicted in several of the high resolution convective models.
3.) Some instability parameters along with higher levels of wind shear could persist passed peak heating to allow for continued strong to severe thunderstorm development well into the evening and allow for severe weather potential in the southern portions of Southern New England provided those favorable parameters occur as forecasted and current model trends support this idea for at least a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for this area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/27/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 26, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded much of Southern New England to a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Tuesday as a cold front will bring an end to a short round of heat and summer temperatures in the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front as it moves into Southern New England and whether it’s passage is close enough to the higher level of instability parameters to trigger strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Wind shear will be strongest in Northern New England but sufficient wind shear values will be present particularly in Northern Massachusetts that if it overlaps with higher levels of instability would allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Some instability parameters along with higher levels of wind shear could persist passed peak heating to allow for continued strong to severe thunderstorm development well into the evening and allow for severe weather potential in the southern portions of Southern New England provided those favorable parameters occur as forecasted,

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210726_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday PM & Evening 7/25/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 25, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible over Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather with the timeframe between 3-8 PM Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for Sunday Afternoon and Evening as a warm front moves through Sunday Morning with the cold front sweeping into the area late Sunday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking which is little changed from yesterday. Key factors include:

1.) Clearing after morning to early afternoon showers
2.) Frontal position and timing to the area presuming sufficient clearing for destabilization
3.) Amount of drying in the atmosphere as too much drying in the atmosphere could limit thunderstorm development and strength but if the drying is not too significant, the drying could enhance the strong wind potential

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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