Page 45 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Night 8/4/21-Thursday Morning 8/5/21 Heavy Rainfall & Flood Potential

August 4, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Storm system will move through the region Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning bringing heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms to Eastern New England..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Wednesday Night through Thursday Morning for all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 1-3″ of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 4″ possible. This rainfall combined with a wet month of July will result in a renewed risk for flooding of urban and poor drainage areas as well as small rivers and streams. Uncertainty remains on the axis of heavy rainfall in Southern New England and could shift west or east in future updates..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports across Eastern New England Tonight into Thursday Morning..

Another round of heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) High resolution models are in different locations with the heaviest rainfall ranging as far west as Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Central and Northeast Massachusetts to areas further southeast even including Cape Cod and the Islands. The current Flash Flood Watch area represents the highest confidence area for potential flooding concerns and this could shift west or east as we get closer to the storm event and models come into a further consensus on location.
2.) If a further west shift to the heavy rainfall occurs, areas of Southeast Massachusetts could see an isolated severe thunderstorm threat develop along with some strong general wind gusts and this will be monitored in future updates.
3.) With the wet month of July, if this rainfall falls in the current Flash Flood Watch area or areas further west, the flood potential for urban and poor drainage areas and small rivers and streams will be fairly high. If the axis shifts further east into Cape Cod and the Islands, the rainfall will be beneficial as this area has actually experienced below normal rainfall whereas areas northwest of the Cape Cod Canal have had above normal rainfall. This will be monitored as we get closer to the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports across Eastern New England tonight into Thursday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StormTotalQPF_SFC1.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Evening 7/29/21-Early Friday Morning 7/30/21 Severe Weather & Flood Potential

July 29, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms still possible anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning along and south of the Mass Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats but even an isolated weak tornado is a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued the region along and south of the Mass Pike in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..The Weather Prediction Center also has the entire region in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for the possibility of training thunderstorms in some localized areas where there has been prior heavy rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning..

A warm front is in the vicinity of Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning before a cold front sweeps through the area. This will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential along and south of the Mass Pike. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Instability levels will likely be muted but wind shear and helicity or turning in the atmosphere would be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development and could compensate for limited instability. The helicity level and other factors mean an isolated weak tornado is possible.
2.) How far north the warm sector moves into Southern New England and whether it encompasses the southern part of Southern New England, much of or all of Southern New England or if it stays shunted south of Southern New England. Current models and conditions show the marginal risk area will remain along and south of the Mass Pike in Southern New England.
3.) There is the possibility of excessive rainfall and flooding issues if thunderstorms train over a localized area particularly in areas that have had prior heavy rainfall and this will bear monitoring.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning. This is the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Late Thursday Afternoon 7/29/21 Thru Early Friday Morning 7/30/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 29, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning along and south of the Mass Pike. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats but even an isolated weak tornado is a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region along and south of the Mass Pike in Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning..

A warm front will be in the vicinity of Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning before a cold front sweeps through the area. This will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential along and south of the Mass Pike. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Instability levels will likely be muted but wind shear and helicity or turning in the atmosphere would be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development and could compensate for limited instability. The helicity level and other factors mean an isolated weak tornado is possible.
2.) How far north the warm sector moves into Southern New England and whether it encompasses the southern part of Southern New England, much of or all of Southern New England or if it stays shunted south of Southern New England. Current models indicate the southern half of Southern New England has the greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorm development but could change as we get closer to the event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential anytime late Thursday Afternoon into early Friday Morning with the highest potential late Thursday Night into early Friday Morning. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Thursday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210728_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Late Afternoon and Evening 7/27/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 27, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely across much of Southern New England late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening anytime between 5 PM-12 AM Tuesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Massachusetts from Norfolk County north and west, Northern Connecticut and Northern Rhode Island near the Massachusetts state line to a Slight risk for severe weather with all other areas of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England Tuesday as a cold front will bring an end to a short round of heat and summer temperatures in the region. The headlines depict the current thinking which is an upgrade from yesterday evening. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front as it moves into Southern New England and whether it’s passage is close enough to the higher level of instability parameters to trigger strong to severe thunderstorm development. That is currently expected based on the present model trends.
2.) Wind shear will be strongest in Northern New England but sufficiently wind shear values will be present particularly in the slight risk area that if it overlaps with higher levels of instability or can offset instability as it drops towards sunset would allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development. This is now depicted in several of the high resolution convective models.
3.) Some instability parameters along with higher levels of wind shear could persist passed peak heating to allow for continued strong to severe thunderstorm development well into the evening and allow for severe weather potential in the southern portions of Southern New England provided those favorable parameters occur as forecasted and current model trends support this idea for at least a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for this area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/27/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 26, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded much of Southern New England to a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England Tuesday as a cold front will bring an end to a short round of heat and summer temperatures in the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front as it moves into Southern New England and whether it’s passage is close enough to the higher level of instability parameters to trigger strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Wind shear will be strongest in Northern New England but sufficient wind shear values will be present particularly in Northern Massachusetts that if it overlaps with higher levels of instability would allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Some instability parameters along with higher levels of wind shear could persist passed peak heating to allow for continued strong to severe thunderstorm development well into the evening and allow for severe weather potential in the southern portions of Southern New England provided those favorable parameters occur as forecasted,

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across the region. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210726_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday PM & Evening 7/25/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 25, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible over Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather with the timeframe between 3-8 PM Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for Sunday Afternoon and Evening as a warm front moves through Sunday Morning with the cold front sweeping into the area late Sunday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking which is little changed from yesterday. Key factors include:

1.) Clearing after morning to early afternoon showers
2.) Frontal position and timing to the area presuming sufficient clearing for destabilization
3.) Amount of drying in the atmosphere as too much drying in the atmosphere could limit thunderstorm development and strength but if the drying is not too significant, the drying could enhance the strong wind potential

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/25/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 25, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible over Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather anytime after 4 PM Sunday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

1.) Clearing after morning showers and possible embedded non-severe thunderstorms.
2.) Frontal position and timing to the area presuming sufficient clearing for destabilization.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for this Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210724_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/23/21 Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Potential

July 23, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Scattered Strong Thunderstorms with Isolated Severe Thunderstorms likely today particularly across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island for this Friday afternoon and early evening. Strong to isolated damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. An impulse in the atmosphere with cold temperatures aloft will allow for this development of scattered strong and isolated severe thunderstorms today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to isolated severe thunderstorm potential for this Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 7/21/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 21, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely between 1 PM-9 PM Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing areas along and south of the Mass Pike in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island in a Slight Risk for severe weather with areas north of the Mass Pike in a marginal risk. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated an 80% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for areas south of the Mass Pike, particularly Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts via their Mesoscale Convective Discussion..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

We are continuing to compile reports, pictures and videos from the last few days of severe weather and flash flooding. If time allows, a post severe weather and flash flood coordination message around the weather events this past weekend and potentially a summary of all the various events going back to the week off July 4th will be compiled and posted by the end of this week. It has been a very active month of July for areas from the Boston to Providence corridor north and west in the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area.

Tuesday’s severe weather stayed north and west of Southern New England across Northeast New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. Today’s severe weather potential is looking more robust particularly along and south of the Mass Pike across in Massachusetts as well as Connecticut and Rhode Island. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for today include:

1.) Any lingering cloud cover from strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday Night into early Wednesday. As of 930 AM, plenty of sunshine is occurring in the slight risk area in the region.
2.) Timing of the cold front through the region Wednesday and whether it is timed with peak heating and instability. This timing looks to be verifying at this time.
3.) Level of sufficiently strong wind shear in the atmosphere as well as maintaining higher dewpoints in the slight risk area. At this time, both of these are occurring as expected.
4.) Much of interior Southern New England from roughly a Boston to Providence line has been very wet so even non-severe thunderstorms that contain heavy downpours could result in greater flooding impacts than normal in these areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message for Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107211423.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1323.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Evening 7/20/21 & Wednesday PM/Evening 7/21/21 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 20, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible tonight between 6 PM-12 AM Tuesday Evening across Western Massachusetts with more widespread potential for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday Evening and much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Tuesday Evening and again Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Two more rounds of severe weather potential for the region starting this Tuesday Evening with the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Western Massachusetts from the Berkshires through Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester Counties. The Key factors on the Tuesday severe weather potential is as follows:

1.) The overlap of strongest instability and shear is not in sync with one another but if more instability lingers overnight or shear can compensate for lowering instability, strong to severe thunderstorms would become more likely for Tuesday Evening.
2.) The timing of the impulse and front approaching Southern New England and how that affects coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in this area.
3.) Western Massachusetts has been extremely wet throughout the last few days and weeks so even non-severe thunderstorms that contain heavy downpours could result in greater flooding impacts than normal in this area.

As we get into Wednesday, the coverage of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be wider across Southern New England as a cold front brings an end to the heat and humidity and will finally allow for a longer period of drier weather for at least Thursday and Friday in Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors include:

1.) Any lingering cloud cover from strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday Night into early Wednesday.
2.) Timing of the cold front through the region Wednesday and whether it is timed with peak heating and instability.
3.) Level of sufficiently strong wind shear in the atmosphere
4.) Similar to Tuesday’s potential, much of interior Southern New England from roughly a Boston to Providence line has been very wet so even non-severe thunderstorms that contain heavy downpours could result in greater flooding impacts than normal in these areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Tuesday Evening and again Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message for Tuesday’s severe weather potential. Given operations may be needed for severe weather and flood potential Tuesday Evening, the next coordination message on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will likely by 11 AM Wednesday Morning unless time allows for an update sooner and there is a significant change to Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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