Hello to all…

..Heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday Night through Tuesday Morning with the potential for renewed urban, poor drainage river and stream flooding in pockets across Southern New England. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday Night into Monday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing South-Central Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island and a small portion of south coastal Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning as the main threats for Monday Afternoon and Evening. The key factor for any severe weather potential is the position of the warm front and warm sector over the region and whether or not activity stays southwest of this area..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 0.50-1.5″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts. With recent rainfall from Elsa and prior rainfall in July, this rainfall could result in urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Monday Evening for Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts for 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts. With recent rainfall from Elsa and prior rainfall in July, this rainfall could result in urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential for Sunday Night through Tuesday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted some time between Monday Morning to early afternoon depending on how active operations on for any flooding during the first part of this storm event. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210711_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2SSS

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Active Weather Pattern through Friday as current light to moderate rainfall ahead of Elsa is occurring in portions of Western New England with heavier rainfall from Elsa and increasing wind speeds in Southeast New England to start arriving between 2-4 AM Friday across Southern New England. The Thursday severe weather potential wasn’t realized due to cloud cover and warm frontal positioning keeping the severe weather activity southwest of our coverage area today..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Merrimack River Massachusetts through New Haven Connecticut. In this area, tropical storm conditions are likely with sustained winds anywhere from 25-40 MPH and wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts to 60 MPH with the strongest wind gusts in South Coastal Rhode Island, South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. With recent wet conditions and these winds, scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are possible in this area..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday in association with Tropical Storm Elsa for strong to damaging winds and even the potential for an isolated tornado or two in this area. There could also be another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a front after Elsa moves out of the area for later Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from late Thursday Night to Friday Afternoon for 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts up to 6″. With recent wet conditions, this additional rainfall could lead to widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and some flooding of rivers and streams in the watch area. This is likely the biggest impact of Tropical Storm Elsa on the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active covering the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa and any severe weather after Elsa’s departure late Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding from the last 2 days of severe weather as well as Elsa’s impacts on Friday can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..

Yesterday featured another fairly widespread severe weather event with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across Southern New England. In addition, a nocturnal line of strong thunderstorms briefly reached severe limits in Southeast Worcester and Western Norfolk Counties around 345-400 AM this morning,. The latest Local Storm Reports giving the latest reports from this event can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Thursday Morning 7/8/21 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107081030.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Wednesday 7/7/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107080226.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html

Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org both for these past severe weather events as well as upcoming severe weather for Thursday and Elsa’s impacts for Thursday Night into Friday.

The Thursday severe weather potential wasn’t realized due to cloud cover and warm frontal positioning keeping the severe weather activity southwest of our coverage area today. Across Western New England, light to moderate rainfall is occurring as of this Thursday Evening and will continue to increase overnight with Tropical Storm Elsa approaching the region between 2-4 AM Friday which will bring an 8-hour window of heavy rainfall across areas of Southern New England north and west of I-95 and increasing strong to damaging winds across Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts. The headlines depict the current thinking with Tropical Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches posted as listed. Key factors include:

1.) Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track with 2-4″ of rain with isolated amounts up to 6″. With recent heavy rainfall from the past week, numerous pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are likely along with the potential for some river and stream flooding.
2.) Strong to damaging winds and the potential for severe weather exists along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system but with less rainfall in this area particularly over Cape Cod and the Islands. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes in this area. If the storm center tracks 50 miles further east, heavier rain and less wind and severe weather potential exists in these areas while a track as forecasted or further west would allow for the strong to damaging wind and severe weather potential in this area.

In addition, after Elsa moves out of the region by mid-afternoon Friday, models indicate the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms later Friday Afternoon and evening with a cold front. This will bear monitoring depending on Elsa’s movement out of the area to allow for heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active covering the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa and any severe weather after Elsa’s departure late Thursday Night into Friday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode for Tropical Storm Elsa. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Elsa information:

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210708_1730.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Active Weather Pattern through Friday with additional severe weather potential Thursday and people in Southern New England need to prepare for heavy rainfall across much of Southern New England and strong to damaging winds and severe weather potential in Southeast New England from Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night through Friday Afternoon..
..Starting with Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a Marginal Risk of severe weather today as another potential round of Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely anytime between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday across the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats, however, even an isolated tornado is possible due to more shear and turning in the atmosphere with a warm front positioned in the area..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through New Haven Connecticut after Tropical Storm Watches were issued Wednesday Evening. In this area, tropical storm conditions are likely with sustained winds anywhere from 25-40 MPH and wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts to 60 MPH possible across South Coastal Rhode Island, South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. With recent wet conditions and these winds, scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are possible in this area..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday in association with Tropical Storm Elsa for strong to damaging winds and even the potential for an isolated tornado or two in this area. There could also be another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a front after Elsa moves out of the area for later Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for all of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from late Thursday Night to Friday Afternoon for 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts up to 6″. With recent wet conditions, this additional rainfall could lead to widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and some flooding of rivers and streams in the watch area. This is likely the biggest impact of Tropical Storm Elsa on the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Thursday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding from the last 2 days of severe weather as well upcoming severe weather Thursday and Elsa’s impacts on Friday can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..

Yesterday featured another fairly widespread severe weather event with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across Southern New England. In addition, a nocturnal line of strong thunderstorms briefly reached severe limits in Southeast Worcester and Western Norfolk Counties around 345-400 AM this morning,. The latest Local Storm Reports giving the latest reports from this event can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Thursday Morning 7/8/21 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107081030.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Wednesday 7/7/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107080226.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html

Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org both for these past severe weather events as well as upcoming severe weather for Thursday and Elsa’s impacts for Thursday Night into Friday.

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today focused on Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut. Some heating is possible this morning before the next atmospheric impulse along a stalled warm front will move through the region. Today will have better shear values as well as turning in the atmosphere with the warm front nearby but not as much instability due to somewhat cooler temperatures and some more cloud cover with the warm front in the area. Models favor portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut for strong to severe thunderstorms between 1-9 PM EDT today. Given the turning in the atmosphere, an isolated tornado or two is possible in this area and will bear close watching.

As we look ahead to the Thursday Night and Friday timeframe, Tropical Storm Elsa will impact our region. The headlines depict the current thinking with Tropical Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches posted as listed. Key factors include:

1.) Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track with 2-4″ of rain with isolated amounts up to 6″. With recent heavy rainfall from the past week, numerous pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are likely along with the potential for some river and stream flooding.
2.) Strong to damaging winds and the potential for severe weather exists along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system but with less rainfall in this area particularly over Cape Cod and the Islands. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes in this area. If the storm center tracks 50 miles further east, heavier rain and less wind and severe weather potential exists while a track as forecasted or further west would allow for the strong to damaging wind and severe weather potential in this area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Thursday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night into Friday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM EDT Thursday Evening depending on severe weather operations for Thursday and time allowing for an update to account for any significant changes to the forecast. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Active Weather Pattern through Friday with additional severe weather potential Wednesday and people in Southern New England need to begin monitoring Tropical Storm Elsa for potential impacts of heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track, strong to damaging winds along and southeast of the track including the potential for severe weather and the possibility of minor coastal storm surge flooding..
..Starting with Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk of severe weather today as another potential round of Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely anytime between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday across the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Impacts from Tropical Storm Elsa could be felt beginning late Thursday Night and especially Friday across much of Southern New England. Will briefly mention her potential impacts to the region in this message and provide more details in future coordination messages.
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Wednesday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..

Yesterday featured another fairly widespread severe weather event with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across Southern New England. The latest Local Storm Report giving the latest reports from this event can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html

Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org.

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Southern New England. Intense heating and humidity will allow for high instability. Wind fields are similar to Tuesday in the region. Models show a cluster of storms ranging from impacts across much of interior Massachusetts north of the Mass Pike to a similar setup to yesterday where much of Massachusetts, Connecticut and parts of Rhode Island have a line of strong to severe thunderstorms sweep through the region. The key factors on how widespread the potential severe weather is for Wednesday is as follows:

1.) High instability levels compensating for marginally strong wind shear profiles.
2.) If wind shear profiles are a bit stronger than modeled, it would increase the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms.
3.) A strong enough trigger to tap into the high instability and marginally strong wind fields in the atmosphere.

As we look ahead to the Thursday Night and Friday timeframe, we will have the potential for impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa in our region. Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track and strong to damaging winds, minor coastal flooding and the potential for severe weather along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system with much of the rest of Southern New England getting into the heavy rainfall side of the system. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes across Southern New England. Now is the time to prepare for tropical storm like conditions particularly in Southeast New England with heavy rainfall and potential for pockets of river, stream and urban flooding in portions of interior Southern New England north and west of the storm center. Further details will be posted in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Wednesday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday Night into Friday. Another coordination message more focused on Tropical Storm Elsa will be posted by 11 PM EDT Wednesday Evening or worse case 9 AM EDT Thursday Morning. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued all of Southern New England in a Slight risk for severe weather with the timeframe between 1-8 PM Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will return to Southern New England Tuesday and with an impulse in the atmosphere, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the Tuesday afternoon and evening hours. The headlines depict the current thinking with little change from last night. Key factors remain and include:

1.) Wind shear values will be marginally conducive for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts. If that shear becomes stronger, it could potentially mean a greater more widespread severe weather risk and this will be monitored. Certain mid-level instability parameters are also marginally favorable for severe thunderstorm development.
2.) There is some cloud cover in the region and with the overnight thunderstorms being a bit more robust than modeled, it does create some uncertainty on whether the impulse in the atmosphere will break and capping to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development. At this time, models still show the potential across much of Southern New England and despite cloud cover that is in the area, instability remains elevated over the region and should increase with breaks in the clouds noted on satellite imagery.
3.) Timing of strong to severe thunderstorm development in the area as some models show earlier timing but near the time of peak heating and other models show the development towards late afternoon and evening. This timing would be favorable but if showers and thunderstorms build in earlier towards mid to late morning or produce more cloud cover, this could limit the severe weather potential. At this time, models are giving a favorable timeframe for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

It is noted that we are also in a marginal risk for severe weather in portions of Southern New England for Wednesday. This will be discussed as needed in a future coordination message posted by 11 PM Tuesday Evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on the Tuesday severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Slight risk for severe weather with the timeframe between 1-8 PM Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will return to Southern New England Tuesday and with an impulse in the atmosphere, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the Tuesday afternoon and evening hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Wind shear values will be marginally conducive for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts. If that shear becomes stronger, it could potentially mean a greater more widespread severe weather risk and this will be monitored. Certain mid-level instability parameters are also marginally favorable for severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Any cloud cover leftover from any overnight showers or isolated thunderstorms associated with a warm front pushing through the region that will bring in the heat and humidity.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210705_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..After the most widespread severe weather event so far in the 2021 Severe Weather Season, a more marginal risk for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exists this Thursday Afternoon and Evening between 1-9 PM across Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage flooding is the primary threat with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for this Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..Post storm wind damage, lightning damage, hail and flooding reports, pictures and videos from the Wednesday 6/30/21 and today’s potential severe weather/flood event can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the spotter for providing the pictures, videos, reports..

Wednesday 6/30/21 brought the most widespread severe weather event so far in the 2021 Severe Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Season in our coverage area. The latest Local Storm Report on Wednesday 6/30/21 severe weather event can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107010134.nwus51.html

As stated in the headlines, post storm wind damage, lightning damage, hail and flooding reports, pictures and videos from the Wednesday 6/30/21 and today’s potential severe weather/flood event can be sent via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the spotter for providing the pictures, videos, reports.

A more limited potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts this Thursday Afternoon and Evening from 1-9 PM EDT. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Amount of sunshine to allow for heating and destabilization. Cloud cover is not as extensive as previously thought with some sizeable breaks in the clouds in the marginal risk area. This is expected to allow for increased instability and part of the reason for the marginal risk upgrade in Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island, and South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts.
2.) Wind shear in the atmosphere will be strong so with the increased instability due to more breaks of sunshine, a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms could cause strong to damaging winds and hail in the SPC marginal risk area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather and flood potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Severe thunderstorms caused pockets of wind damage and flooding in portions of Western Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and in the Metro Boston/Brookline/Newton area Tuesday. Any additional damage reports, photos and videos from the Tuesday 6/29/21 severe weather event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or for photos and videos, they can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org..
..Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Southern New England between 2-10 PM. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Extreme Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts including the metro Boston area to an Enhanced risk for severe weather while the rest of Southern New England north and west of the Cape Cod Canal is in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. Damaging Winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding are the main threats..
..A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Wednesday Evening for all of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices between 97-103 degrees. Anyone exerting themselves outside should take frequent breaks, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned areas wherever possible to avoid heat related illnesses..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity continues across much of Southern New England today and will continue through at least Wednesday. Heat Advisories are posted for much of Southern New England away from Cape Cod and the Islands. Links to the apparent maximum temperatures factoring in humidity and dewpoints can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Apparent Maximum Temperatures:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Heat-Indices-Wednesday.png

Tuesday also featured a bit more coverage in strong to severe thunderstorms across the area particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island as well as the Brookline/Boston/Newton area. Any additional damage reports, photos and videos from the Tuesday 6/29/21 severe weather event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or for photos and videos, they can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org. The Tuesday Evening NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report can be seen below:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2106300125.nwus51.html

Severe weather potential continues to fairly high for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and SPC has continued the enhanced risk in parts of our coverage area as indicated in the headlines. A cold front will be approaching the region and with the intense heat and humidity in place and increasing winds aloft, it will set the stage for a greater risk of strong to severe thunderstorm development along with a greater coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England. Key items for Wednesday will be how quickly the cold front gets into or close enough to the region to provide a trigger for thunderstorm development and the overlap of the stronger winds aloft with high instability over the region from intense heating and humidity through the day. No cloud cover remains over the region so intense heating will continue through the day. The main threat appears to be clusters or lines of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding in the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we switch to operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2106301343.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Severe thunderstorms caused pockets of wind damage and flooding in portions of Western Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and in the Metro Boston/Brookline/Newton area Tuesday. Any additional damage reports, photos and videos from the Tuesday 6/29/21 severe weather event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or for photos and videos, they can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org..
..Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Extreme Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts including the metro Boston area to an Enhanced risk for severe weather while the rest of Southern New England north and west of the Cape Cod Canal is in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. Damaging Winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding to possibly flash flooding are the main threats..
..A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Wednesday Evening for all of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices between 97-103 degrees. Anyone exerting themselves outside should take frequent breaks, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned areas wherever possible to avoid heat related illnesses..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity continues across much of Southern New England today and will continue through at least Wednesday. Heat Advisories are posted for much of Southern New England away from Cape Cod and the Islands. Links to the apparent maximum temperatures factoring in humidity and dewpoints can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Apparent Maximum Temperatures:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Heat-Indices-Wednesday.png

Tuesday also featured a bit more coverage in strong to severe thunderstorms across the area particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island as well as the Brookline/Boston/Newton area. Any additional damage reports, photos and videos from the Tuesday 6/29/21 severe weather event can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or for photos and videos, they can be sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org. The Tuesday Evening NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report can be seen below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2106300125.nwus51.html

Severe weather potential continues to increase for Wednesday and this has prompted an upgrade in the severe weather outlook to Enhanced in parts of our coverage area as indicated in the headlines. A cold front will be approaching the region and with the intense heat and humidity in place and increasing winds aloft, it will set the stage for a greater risk of strong to severe thunderstorm development along with a greater coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England. Key items for Wednesday will be how quickly the cold front gets into or close enough to the region to provide a trigger for thunderstorm development and the overlap of the stronger winds aloft with high instability over the region from intense heating and humidity through the day. Also it is presumed any lingering cloud cover from overnight convection in Eastern New York will not prevent expected strong heating through the day and this will be monitored. The main threat appears to be clusters or lines of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding in the area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210629_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Intense heat and humidity with a second heat wave ongoing for much of Southern New England away from Cape Cod and the Islands through at least Wednesday of this week. A few isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible today in parts of Western and Central Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northern Rhode Island this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening though the best coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to be north and west of our area for Tuesday..
..For Wednesday, a more significant potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is expected with an approaching cold front and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area from Boston to Providence north and west in a slight risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours are the main threats..
..A Heat Advisory is now in effect through 7 PM Wednesday Evening for all of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area except for Cape Cod and the Islands for heat indices between 97-103 degrees. Anyone exerting themselves outside should take frequent breaks, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned areas wherever possible to avoid heat related illnesses..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any strong to severe thunderstorm potential that develops on Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and especially Wednesday Afternoon and evening..

Intense heat and humidity continues across much of Southern New England today and will continue through at least Wednesday. Heat Advisories are posted for much of Southern New England away from Cape Cod and the Islands. Links to the apparent maximum temperatures factoring in humidity and dewpoints can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Apparent Maximum Temperatures:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Heat-Indices-Tuesday.png
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Heat-Indices-Wednesday.png

Severe weather potential will be on the increase particularly on Wednesday but there is some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening as there will be some marginal triggers to the unstable atmosphere that could allow for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with the greatest risk in Western Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. The greater potential is noted to be north and west of our coverage area but some models do produce a few pop-up thunderstorms and the potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two.

On Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching the region and with the intense heat and humidity in place and increasing winds aloft, it will set the stage for a greater risk of strong to severe thunderstorm development along with a greater coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England. Key items for Wednesday will be how quickly the cold front gets into or close enough to the region to provide a trigger for thunderstorm development and the overlap of the stronger winds aloft with high instability over the region from intense heating and humidity through the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any strong to severe thunderstorm potential that develops on Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and especially Wednesday Afternoon and evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Tuesday Evening on Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210629_0600.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box