Hello to all…
..A coastal storm will take aim on Southern New England late Monday Night through Tuesday Night. The coastal storm will be capable of heavy snow, minor to moderate coastal flooding and strong wind gusts at the coast. The storm track has shifted significantly to the south meaning lighter snows in northern and western parts of Southern New England and heavier snowfall in Southeast New England including Cape Cod and the Islands. Coastal flood and wind threats remain similar to the previous update..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 1 AM Tuesday Morning through 1 AM Wednesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and isolated higher amounts wind gusts to 40 MPH at the coast..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 1 AM Tuesday Morning through 1 AM Wednesday Morning for Bristol, Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands, Eastern Kent, Bristol, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for 5-10″ of snow with higher amounts possible and wind gusts to 50 MPH with isolated higher gusts except for Cape Cod and the Islands where wind gusts to 65 MPH are likely. In this area, the snow will be heavy and wet and this may result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage in this area. A period of near blizzard conditions are possible on Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 1 AM Tuesday Morning to 1 AM Wednesday Morning for Northern Worcester, Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-4″ of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for central Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow. The Winter Storm Warnings for these areas has been canceled. The Winter Storm Watch and Winter Weather Advisories previously in effect for Franklin and Western Hampshire counties have been canceled as 2″ or less of snow is expected in this area..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 12-5 PM Tuesday Afternoon for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide for East Coastal Massachusetts which includes Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth Counties, Cape Cod and the Islands. Shore road closures and beach erosion in areas hard hit by coastal storms last month are likely in the warning area and possible in the watch area. South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island with a Northeast wind component is not expected to see any coastal flooding from this event.
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 7 AM to 10 PM Tuesday for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Tuesday for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 50 MPH. These winds along with any wet snow accumulation of 3″ or more could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Tuesday across much of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area. A best effort/complete Amateur Radio Net Schedule for Tuesday is posted below. Pictures and videos of coastal flooding and any storm damage etc. can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org..
A coastal storm will bring an end to a relative quiet stretch of weather for the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) As always, storm track will be critical to snowfall amounts and the rain-snow line in Coastal Southeast New England. The current track supports the current headlines and depicts a further south track with greater impacts to Southeast New England including Cape Cod and the Islands and lesser impacts north of the I-90 corridor way from east coastal Massachusetts.
2.) With no high pressure to the north, this will impact the amount of cold air to the north but the system will be intensifying which means dynamic cooling with the intensifying storm would allow for heavy snow expected to affect east and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and will continue to be monitored.
3.) With no high pressure to the north, this should keep the strong wind gusts a bit more muted than some coastal storms. Nonetheless, wind gusts of 40-65 MPH at the coast will be possible with this storm and models have trended a bit stronger with the storm resulting in a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and the Islands for wind gusts up to 65 MPH. With wind gusts 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts at the coast in the Winter Storm Warning area. Those winds are covered under the Winter Storm Warning. The timing of these Northeast winds will have an impact on the level of coastal flooding at the time of high tide Tuesday for East Coastal Massachusetts but a high-end minor to low-end moderate coastal flood event is expected. No impacts are expected in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island due to the Northeast wind direction based on the current storm track.
4.) Amount of snow will depend on the storm speed and intensity in addition to the track as mentioned in item 1. Also, the snow could be heavy and wet in the Winter Storm Warning area of Southeast Massachusetts and South Central Rhode Island and East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands and this aspect will be monitored for any isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and any power outages.
SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Tuesday across much of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area. A best effort/complete Amateur Radio Net Schedule for Tuesday is posted below and could change based on storm conditions:
146.940-Mount Tom MA Repeater (PL: 127.3): Nets every 2 hours starting at 7 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions
146.970-Paxton MA Repeater (PL: 114.8) – Nets every 2 hours starting at 730 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions
146.790-Vernon CT Repeater (PL: 82.5) – Nets every 2 hours starting at 700 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions (Time Tentative)
147.225-Killingly, CT Repeater (PL: 156.7) – Will call on repeater as needed throughout the day for reports
146.895-Walpole MA Repeater (PL: 123.0) – Nets every 2 hours starting at 700 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions
146.955-Westford Repeater (PL: 74.4) – With the latest forecast, nets will be scheduled as needed and if resources allow
145.230-Boston Repeater (PL: 88.5) – Nets every 2 hours starting at 700 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions – net may run continuously for a time during the Tuesday PM high tide (Time tentative)
NB1RI Repeater System – Nets every 2 hours starting at 700 AM Tuesday and will adjust pending on conditions (times tentative)
147.000-Dartmouth Repeater (PL: 67.0): Nets starting at 9 AM – every 2 hours
147.180-Bridgewater Repeater (PL: 67.0): Nets starting at 930 AM – every 2 hours
146.955-Barnstable Repeater (PL 88.5): Nets starting at 9 AM – every 2 hours
Pictures and videos of coastal flooding and any storm damage etc. can be sent as a reply to this message, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Winter Storm Warning Statement & Snowfall Map, Coastal Flood Warning Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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