Hello to all…
..Powerful and long duration coastal storm will bring the multiple high tide cycles of significant major coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts along with the potential for strong to damaging winds including hurricane force wind gusts for Cape Cod and the Islands, heavy rainfall that could lead to urban, poor drainage and potentially river and stream flooding and rain changing to snow with the potential for significant snow accumulations in portions of interior Southern New England. The potential for heavy snow remains the lowest confidence portion of the forecast..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from 9 AM Friday Morning to 3 AM Sunday Morning for the potential of major coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island from 7 AM Friday to 11 PM Saturday for minor coastal flooding of shore roads up to 1 foot in depth for multiple high tide cycles..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM Saturday for Eastern Kent, Southeast Providence, Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island and Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-40 MPH with gusts to 70 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts likely. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM Saturday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 75 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Friday through 7 AM Saturday for Western Kent and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island and Southern Worcester, Central and Southeast Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday for Northern Connecticut, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds coupled with any wet snow accumulation will cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts from Southern Worcester and Central Middlesex Counties eastward to the coast line from Friday Morning through Saturday Morning for 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher rainfall amounts of 4″. This rainfall could produce urban and small stream flooding as well as urban and poor drainage flooding..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM Saturday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 5-8″of snow with higher amounts to 12″ possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with the strong winds could down scattered trees and power lines and cause scattered power outages. This remains lower confidence and could be subject to revision on snow amounts..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from Noon Friday to 4 AM Saturday for Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 4-7″ of snow with higher amounts to 10″ possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with the strong winds could down scattered trees and power lines and cause scattered power outages. This remains lower confidence and could be subject to revision on snow amounts..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Southern Worcester County from Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning for 4-7″ of snow. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with the strong winds could down scattered trees and power lines and cause scattered power outages. This remains lower confidence and could be subject to revision on snow amounts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 8 AM Friday Morning lasting through Saturday Afternoon. Overnight Ops are possible..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds, as a reply to this email or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the photos/videos unless otherwise indicated..
..ARES/RACES Groups should seek advice from local leadership for possible standby or activation status..
Model solutions have converged on a storm track just offshore of the Southern New England coastline but close enough to get the region into significant impacts from coastal flooding which could hit major category in multiple locations, damaging wind gusts causing isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and small river and stream flooding. The track guidance continues to support an increased risk for heavy wet snow and coupled with strong winds could cause power outages in interior locations of the Winter Storm Warning/Watch areas. The headlines reflect the current thinking. Factors for consideration:
1.) Given model trends and the potential for widespread damaging winds and widespread pockets of tree and wire damage, high wind warnings have been posted and expanded with the continued potential for hurricane force wind gusts over Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly other parts of the coast line with wind gusts as high as 75 MPH with isolated higher gusts likely particularly in Southeast Coastal New England and Cape Cod and the Islands. Further inland in Eastern Massachusetts, Northwest Rhode, wind gusts to 65-70 MPH are likely with widespread pockets of wind damage. Lesser wind gusts are expected inland but with the wet snow, impact could be similar in nature.
2.) This is likely to be one of the bigger coastal flood episodes for East Coastal Massachusetts in recent memory particularly when considering the multiple tide cycles and higher astronomical tides. This continues to bear close watching and preparations in this area should start and be completed by Thursday Night into early Friday Morning. It is now looking like the Friday Morning, Friday Evening and Saturday Midday high tides all have high risks with some risk of some level of coastal flooding Saturday Evening.
3.) Heavy rainfall could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding as well as street flooding. If the heavier rainfall occurs over East Coastal Massachusetts, this could cause further flooding issues in the coastal areas.
4.) Lowest confidence in this forecast is regarding any rain changing to snow potential but enough confidence for Winter Storm Warnings across Western and Northern Massachusetts with a Winter Storm Watch for Southern Worcester County. The trend in the models has maintained colder temperatures and more snow in the interior and there is a possibility more snowfall totals could get into portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut as well. This will likely have the most revisions leading up to the storm and will bear close watching for further changes. With the wet snow and strong to damaging winds, pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Friday Morning lasting through Saturday Afternoon. Overnight Ops are possible. Pictures and videos of storm damage can be sent via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds, as a reply to this email or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the photos/videos unless otherwise indicated. ARES/RACES Groups should seek advice from local leadership for possible standby or activation status.
Another coordination message will be posted if time allows by 9 AM Friday Morning otherwise this will be the last coordination message on the storm potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and NWS Facebook storm briefing post:
NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Taunton Facebook Storm Briefing Post:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1640966885997676/1640966152664416/?type=3&theater
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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