Page 98 – WX1BOX – Amateur Radio Station at NWS Boston/Norton

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Night to Early Friday Morning 7/20/17-7/21/17 Severe Weather Potential

July 20, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms or potentially a complex of thunderstorms in a mesocale convective system is possible Thursday Evening or during the Thursday Night overnight hours. Strong to damaging winds, hail, torrential rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed far western New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..The key item is placement of features to fire off a convective complex and whether those features get into Southern New England or if the activity slides south and west of Southern New England. These details will become better defined as we get into Thursday. The key item here is to note that this activity could occur during the evening and overnight hours due to intense heat and humidity and the timing of the complex into the region..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for Thursday Evening and into the overnight hours. Another coordination message will be posted by 1 PM Thursday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170719_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/17/17 Severe Weather Potential in Western/North-Central Massachusetts & Northwest Connecticut

July 17, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in Western Massachusetts from Central Worcester County Massachusetts and Hartford County Connecticut west anytime between 3-9 PM Monday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area into a marginal to slight risk of severe weather and there remains a slight risk of severe weather across New York, Vermont & Northeast Pennsylvania..
..Key question on any severe weather potential is how close a frontal system/trough gets to this area and whether cooling temperatures aloft get close enough to this area along with heating and destabilization of the day is sufficient to realize severe weather potential. Wind fields are marginally sufficient for severe weather if instability levels and cooling aloft works far enough east into the Marginal to Slight risk area and the risk area has shifted a bit more east indicating the cooling aloft could make it far enough east to affect parts of our coverage area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely mid to late Monday Afternoon into the evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms in Western and North-Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. This will be the last complete coordination message on this severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 7/17/17 Severe Weather Potential in Western Massachusetts

July 16, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible in Western Massachusetts from the Connecticut River Valley west from Monday late afternoon through early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather across New York and Vermont and Northeast Pennsylvania..
..Key question on any severe weather potential in Western Massachusetts west of the Connecticut River Valley is how close a frontal system/trough gets to this area and whether cooling temperatures aloft get close enough to this area along with heating and destabilization of the day is sufficient to realize severe weather potential..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is possible to likely late Monday Afternoon into the evening to monitor this severe weather potential. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms in Western Massachusetts. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Monday Morning to update this potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170716_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/13/17 Severe Weather Potential

July 13, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely again across sections of Southern New England particularly in Southwest Massachusetts from Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts through Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts, potentially confined to the South Coast this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban to poor drainage flooding and even flash flooding are the primary threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for today through tonight but this threat is likely to be along and south/southwest of the cold frontal boundary..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 8 PM EDT for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Bristol, Plymouth, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 200 PM EDT Thursday Afternoon for severe weather potential..

Yesterday brought one of the more significant severe weather and flash flood events of the spring-summer 2017 season to date with numerous wind damage and hail reports as well as flash flooding reports. Below is the NWS Taunton Public Information Statement, Local Storm Report and WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album from the event:

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1707131457.nous41.html

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1707130243.nwus51.html

For today, a cold frontal boundary is draped over South-Central Massachusetts through Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts just north of the south coast. This boundary divides much cooler air to the north and east from very warm and humid air to the south. There could be some question on whether parts of Southern New England will be deep enough into the warm sector but areas of Southwest Massachusetts through Connecticut, parts of southern Rhode Island and perhaps South Coastal Massachusetts will likely have a chance for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms similar to yesterday but over more southern and western parts of the area southwest of the cold front. The headlines above depict the situation well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM today. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion, and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md1303.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/12/17 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 12, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely through Wednesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather today..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 9 PM Wednesday Evening for Hampden, Southern Worcester, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Northern Connecticut and all of Rhode Island and except Block Island Rhode Islamd..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely today for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible for the later afternoon/early evening timeframe..

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday July 8th, 2017 Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely Saturday, possibly as early as late Saturday Morning and extending through the early evening hours Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday for much of Southern New England and could upgrade to a slight risk in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 11 AM Saturday Morning..

On Friday, significant flash flooding affected portions of Cape Cod from Falmouth and Sandwich through Barnstable, Dennis and Yarmouth and to a lesser extent on Outer Cape Cod. Storm report information and a few flooding photos can be seen at the following links:

WX1BOX Storm Report Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_7_17.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1622155554485123

For today, there remains a risk for at least a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England as a cold front sweeps through the region. Some high-resolution models have been hinting at a more widespread severe weather event in Southern New England and this will be monitored closely today. There will be sufficiently strong winds aloft to support the severe weather potential. Satellite imagery shows low clouds burning off across Southern New England and there has been on convective activity so far this morning to preclude heating and destabilization with activity staying largely north and west of Southern New England. Model timing is now bringing the cold front and any pre-frontal trough towards this afternoon and evening. The headlines of the coordination message continue to capture the current situation well. The key remaining items that will determine the extent and coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms are as follows:

1.) Continued heating and destabilization through the morning and early afternoon hours for sufficient instability.
2.) Whether too much mid-level dry air keeps coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms limited or causes a lack of strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 11 AM Saturday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday July 8th, 2017 Severe Weather Potential

July 8, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely Saturday, possibly as early as late Saturday Morning and extending through the late afternoon and early evening hours Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Saturday..

WX1BOX Storm Report Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_7_7_17.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1622155554485123

On Saturday, there is a risk for at least a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Southern New England as a cold front sweeps through the region. Some high-resolution models are also hinting at a more widespread severe weather event in Southern New England but there is not enough consensus in the models to determine if that will be the likely scenario. There will be sufficiently strong winds aloft to support the severe weather potential. The headlines of the coordination message capture the current situation well. The key items that will determine the extent and coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms are as follows:

1.) A pre-frontal trough and its potential passage in the morning hours and whether this brings cloud cover over the region that doesn’t allow the atmosphere to destabilize when the cold front passes through the region presuming the pre-frontal trough timing remains in the morning.
2.) Presuming a morning pre-frontal trough passage and then a cold front in the afternoon, if the atmosphere can destabilize, whether too much mid-level dry air after the pre-frontal trough passage keeps coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms limited or causes a total lack of strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Timing of the actual cold front and whether it comes through in the mid to late afternoon as currently anticipated.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely Saturday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170707_1730.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 7th, 2017 Flash Flood & Severe Weather Potential

July 6, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Heavy Rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding from convective showers and thunderstorms and an isolated severe thunderstorm threat is possible across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon for Rhode Island and Bristol, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts particularly near south coastal locations for urban and poor drainage flooding potential. The biggest uncertainty is whether or not heavy rainfall and thunderstorms clip portions of the Flash Flood Watch area or stay south of the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor heavy rainfall and flash flood potential as well as for isolated severe weather potential in Southeast New England..

A warm front will be pushing through Southern New England Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon. This warm front could bring heavy rainfall in the form of convective showers and thunderstorms across Southeast New England. Models continue to struggle with the northward extent of the convective showers and thunderstorms. Some models bring the activity into Southeast New England and particularly south coastal locations while other models track the heaviest precipitation south of this region. Taking a consensus of the models currently, there appears to be enough of a risk for heavier convective showers or thunderstorms into Southeast New England which is prompting a Flash Flood Watch for Southeast New England area with the uncertainty in that it tracks further offshore to the south of the area. There is also a risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even an isolated brief weak tornado or waterspout. This will again depend on the northward extent of the warm front into the area and the ability for thunderstorms to organize with the warm front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor heavy rainfall and flash flood potential as well as for isolated severe weather potential. This could be the last coordination message on this flash flood and severe weather potential for Friday depending on the timing of the convective showers and thunderstorms into the region or if time allows another message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning. Also, a shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday July 1st, 2017 Severe Weather Potential

July 1, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely today particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut anytime after 4 PM Saturday Afternoon lasting through late Saturday evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has again placed Western & Central Massachusetts, Western & Central Connecticut in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 330 PM today..

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms caused pockets of tree and wire damage and urban and poor drainage flooding across portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut late Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening. The NWS Taunton Local Storm Report highlighting the pockets of damage in the NWS Taunton Coverage Area for Friday can be seen at the following link:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1706302258.nwus51.html

For today, there is reasonable heating and destabilization occurring across Southern New England, away from the south coast and its marine influence. Wind shear values are slightly stronger today than Friday as well. This will set the stage for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across Western and Central Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut. The coverage will likely be similar to or maybe slightly more than Friday provided impulses in the atmosphere are timed near or slightly after peak heating and heating and destabilization can continue through the first half of the afternoon hours. The headlines of the coordination message cover the situation well.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 330 PM today. This will be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday June 30th, 2017 Severe Weather Potential

June 30, 2017 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this Friday afternoon and evening between 4-10 PM across interior Southern New England, Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 200-230 PM EDT for Friday’s severe weather potential..

At 1050 AM EDT Friday Morning, Doppler Radar showed a few showers moving through Southern New England with cloud cover over Massachusetts and Rhode Island. An area of clearing is working its way into Connecticut and Eastern New York. An impulse in the atmosphere will be moving eastward from East-Central New York and East-Central Pennsylvania and given clearing upstream there should be sufficient heating and destabilization along with marginally sufficient wind shear for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly in Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut but the threat could extend elsewhere in interior Southern New England. The headlines reflect thinking well for today presuming the heating and destabilization can take place as expected.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 200-230 PM EDT for Friday’s severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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