Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #4 – Monday Evening 3/12/18-Tuesday Evening 3/13/18 Winter Storm Potential
Hello to all…
..Another significant coastal storm with heavy snowfall across much of Southern New England with the potential for near blizzard to blizzard conditions for Eastern New England and strong to damaging winds. Coastal flooding will be at minor levels in Northeast Coastal Massachusetts and Marthas Vineyard with minor to moderate coastal flooding in Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and Nantucket given lower astronomical tides during this significant coastal storm event. Confidence in at least a level of accumulating snow and strong winds is very high with confidence level on a high impact event moderate to high at this time..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 11 PM Monday Evening to 8 PM Tuesday Evening for Eastern Essex, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts for 10-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 20″, sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH with isolated higher gusts likely. Snow in this area is likely to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is remains in effect for all of Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts from 11 PM Monday Evening through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for 10-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in Eastern New England. Winds will be sustained at 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35-40 MPH in Central Massachusetts and sustained winds at 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH across Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts with near blizzard conditions expected. Snow along south coastal areas of Eastern Massachusetts and possibly Rhode Island maybe heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Nantucket Island from 11 PM Monday Evening through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for 5-8″ of snow and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. The snow in this area could be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. This area is the most problematic in terms of snowfall accumulation and rain/snow mix holding down snowfall amounts. If heavy snow coincides with the strongest winds, near blizzard conditions are expected..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 11 PM Monday Evening through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for Northern Connecticut and Western Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. The snow in this area will “not” be heavy and wet so main impacts will be to travel in this area from heavy snowfall and reduced visibilities..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Nantucket for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. These winds along with snow accumulation will likely cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. The remainder of the coastal area under the High Wind Watch is now covered under the Blizzard Warning..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 8 AM-Noon Tuesday for the Tuesday Morning high tide cycle for Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and Nantucket for moderate coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of the morning high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM-Noon Tuesday for the Tuesday Morning high tide cycle for Eastern Essex and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of the morning high tide cycle..
..ARES/RACES Groups in Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from their local leadership. Pictures and videos from this latest coastal storm event can be sent to WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, sent to pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this email and will be shared with emergency management, non-governmental organizations and other outlets. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 AM Tuesday Morning..
Another significant coastal storm with the potential for near blizzard to blizzard conditions is going to affect the region late Monday Night into Tuesday. There is continued confidence on a significant system with high confidence in significant accumulating snow and strong winds and at least moderate to high confidence in a high impact event. The headlines depict the current thinking which is an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for Eastern Essex, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts with a Winter Storm Warning remaining in effect across all of Southern New England. A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Nantucket Island as depicted in the headlines. Key factors for this storm include:
1.) The current thinking is that the snow consistency won’t be quite as heavy and wet as the prior storm system with the exception of areas along East and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and possibly South Coastal Rhode Island closer to the rain-snow line. This area stands the greatest risk for tree and wire damage from heavy wet snow and damaging winds. Also, Nantucket remains in the Winter Storm Warning and if the 5-8″ of snow is realized with the high winds, Nantucket could be an area that sustains tree and wire damage and power outages from the combination of heavy wet snow and strong to damaging winds and this will be monitored. Nantucket remains closest to the rain-snow line and a few miles could be the difference between a damaging winter storm event or mostly rain along with the high winds.
2.) Storm track could still change as we approach the event. Models have coalesced around the current solution but there is still some spread in the guidance and shifts in guidance of up to 50 miles are still possible and that could change some of the impacts across the region and where they occur. This will be monitored throughout the day today and is the reason for the Blizzard Warning upgrade to parts of East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard.
3.) The threat for near blizzard to blizzard conditions is likely to make travel near impossible on Tuesday by the morning commute and will likely impact the evening commute to a degree as the storm begins to depart the region at that time. Very high snowfall rates of 2-3″ per hour (possibly higher) and the potential for thundersnow could result in rapidly accumulating deep snowfall in the region. This will setup in parts of East Coastal Massachusetts in the Blizzard Warning area. There could be a further upgrade to the eastern most parts of the current Winter Storm Warning in later forecast updates and this will be monitored as well.
ARES/RACES Groups in Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from their local leadership. Pictures and videos from this latest coastal storm event can be sent to WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, sent to pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this email and will be shared with emergency management, non-governmental organizations and other outlets. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 AM Tuesday Morning. There could be one more coordination message by 8 PM Monday Evening if there is any significant changes otherwise this will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and Facebook Winter Storm Briefing Post:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Taunton Facebook Winter Storm Briefing Post:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1652411654853199/1652410274853337/?type=3&theater
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Another significant coastal storm with heavy snowfall across much of Southern New England with the potential for near blizzard to blizzard conditions for Eastern New England and strong to damaging winds. Coastal flooding will be at minor levels in Northeast Coastal Massachusetts and Marthas Vineyard with minor to moderate coastal flooding in Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and Nantucket given lower astronomical tides during this significant coastal storm event. Confidence in at least a level of accumulating snow and strong winds is very high with confidence level on a high impact event moderate to high at this time..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 11 PM Monday Evening to 8 PM Tuesday Evening for Eastern Essex, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts for 10-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 20″, sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH with isolated higher gusts likely. Snow in this area is likely to be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning is remains in effect for all of Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts from 11 PM Monday Evening through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for 10-18″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in Eastern New England. Winds will be sustained at 15-25 MPH with gusts to 35-40 MPH in Central Massachusetts and sustained winds at 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH across Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts with near blizzard conditions expected. Snow along south coastal areas of Eastern Massachusetts and possibly Rhode Island maybe heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Nantucket Island from 11 PM Monday Evening through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for 5-8″ of snow and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. The snow in this area could be heavy and wet and with the strong to damaging winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. This area is the most problematic in terms of snowfall accumulation and rain/snow mix holding down snowfall amounts. If heavy snow coincides with the strongest winds, near blizzard conditions are expected..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 11 PM Monday Evening through 8 PM Tuesday Evening for Northern Connecticut and Western Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. The snow in this area will “not” be heavy and wet so main impacts will be to travel in this area from heavy snowfall and reduced visibilities..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Nantucket for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. These winds along with snow accumulation will likely cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. The remainder of the coastal area under the High Wind Watch is now covered under the Blizzard Warning..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 8 AM-Noon Tuesday for the Tuesday Morning high tide cycle for Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and Nantucket for moderate coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of the morning high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM-Noon Tuesday for the Tuesday Morning high tide cycle for Eastern Essex and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding of shore roads at the time of the morning high tide cycle..
..ARES/RACES Groups in Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from their local leadership. Pictures and videos from this latest coastal storm event can be sent to WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, sent to pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this email and will be shared with emergency management, non-governmental organizations and other outlets. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 AM Tuesday Morning..
Another significant coastal storm with the potential for near blizzard to blizzard conditions is going to affect the region late Monday Night into Tuesday. There is continued confidence on a significant system with high confidence in significant accumulating snow and strong winds and at least moderate to high confidence in a high impact event. The headlines depict the current thinking which is an upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for Eastern Essex, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts with a Winter Storm Warning remaining in effect across all of Southern New England. A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Nantucket Island as depicted in the headlines. Key factors for this storm include:
1.) The current thinking is that the snow consistency won’t be quite as heavy and wet as the prior storm system with the exception of areas along East and Southeast Coastal Massachusetts and possibly South Coastal Rhode Island closer to the rain-snow line. This area stands the greatest risk for tree and wire damage from heavy wet snow and damaging winds. Also, Nantucket remains in the Winter Storm Warning and if the 5-8″ of snow is realized with the high winds, Nantucket could be an area that sustains tree and wire damage and power outages from the combination of heavy wet snow and strong to damaging winds and this will be monitored. Nantucket remains closest to the rain-snow line and a few miles could be the difference between a damaging winter storm event or mostly rain along with the high winds.
2.) Storm track could still change as we approach the event. Models have coalesced around the current solution but there is still some spread in the guidance and shifts in guidance of up to 50 miles are still possible and that could change some of the impacts across the region and where they occur. This will be monitored throughout the day today and is the reason for the Blizzard Warning upgrade to parts of East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard.
3.) The threat for near blizzard to blizzard conditions is likely to make travel near impossible on Tuesday by the morning commute and will likely impact the evening commute to a degree as the storm begins to depart the region at that time. Very high snowfall rates of 2-3″ per hour (possibly higher) and the potential for thundersnow could result in rapidly accumulating deep snowfall in the region. This will setup in parts of East Coastal Massachusetts in the Blizzard Warning area. There could be a further upgrade to the eastern most parts of the current Winter Storm Warning in later forecast updates and this will be monitored as well.
ARES/RACES Groups in Rhode Island, Central and Eastern Massachusetts should closely monitor the progress of this system and seek advice from their local leadership. Pictures and videos from this latest coastal storm event can be sent to WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds, sent to pics@nsradio.org or as a reply to this email and will be shared with emergency management, non-governmental organizations and other outlets. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 4 AM Tuesday Morning. There could be one more coordination message by 8 PM Monday Evening if there is any significant changes otherwise this will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and Facebook Winter Storm Briefing Post:
NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
NWS Taunton Facebook Winter Storm Briefing Post:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1652411654853199/1652410274853337/?type=3&theater
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box