July 2011

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday August 1st 2011 Severe Weather Threat

July 31, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Monday Afternoon and Evening across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Covering the entire region with a threat timeframe between 1 and 8 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting as early as Noon Monday..

An upper level low pressure system and associated cold front or trough will move through Southern New England during the time of max heating on Monday Afternoon and Evening. While there could be some mid and high level clouds to start the day, these are expected to move offshore and allow for heating and destablization across much of the region. Wind shear profiles will not be as strong as some of the prior event this summer and are a bit marginal but combined with the expected instability and cooling temperatures aloft, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area with a threat timeframe between 1-8 PM Monday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday anytime after Noon. Another coordination message will be issued by 830 AM Monday to update the threat. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1107311733.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday July 29th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

July 29, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely today with the greatest risk across Western and Central Massachusetts and Much of Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Slight Risk of Severe Weather with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. A more isolated risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm exists for areas of Southern New England outside the slight risk area..
..Amount of sunshine for heating and destablization and the timing of a line of thunderstorms in Western New York through the Great Lakes states will determine the extent of the severe weather threat today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely today anytime after Noon or 1 PM today..

At 715 AM, Satellite imagery showed clouds over the region with some breaks in New York State with stronger clearing over Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Doppler Radar showed a line of thunderstorms from just west of the Finger Lakes in New York through Lake Erie, Southeast Michigan and Northeast Ohio. The extent of clearing to allow for destablization and the timing of this line of storm activity will ultimately determine the severe weather threat over the region.

SPC has maintained the Slight Risk area for much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut for today. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out outside of the slight risk area in the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Given the current line configuration in Western New York and the Great Lakes states, the primary risks is for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding. Any threat for supercells appears lower than last night but will need to be watched carefully if more heating develops and individual cells form versus the line configuration that is currently being seen on radar.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible likely this afternoon and evening anytime after Noon or 1 PM today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 29th, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

July 29, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Friday Afternoon and Evening in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut where NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Friday. A more isolated severe weather threat exists for areas of the NWS Taunton County Warning area outside of the slight risk area. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, an Isolated supercell, and urban to poor drainage flooding to possibly isolated flash flooding are the primary threats..
..Degree of threat will hinge on amount of sunshine and destablization that can occur over the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely Friday Afternoon and Evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post-Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday July 26th, 2011 Severe Weather Summary

July 27, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Severe Weather Outbreak Slams Portions of Hampden County Massachusetts specifically the Chicopee, Springfield, Ludlow, Wilbraham and Monson Mass. area. Damage was largely trees and wires down with trees and wires falling on houses and cars. Holyoke, Mass also had damage right along the Connecticut River near Lyman Street where a weakened mill structure was blown out/destroyed in the area. Many Large Hail reports were also received..
..An additional area of significant damage was reported in Willimantic CT with trees down and this also affected portions of Windham, CT. The worst damage was south of Valley Street in Willimantic, Ct affecting Bridge and Spring street and several other locations. Roof damage was reported in the areas as well..
..Pictures, Video and additional damage information is requested so that this information can be given to MEMA, FEMA, NWS officials and the media. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators that give the damage and pictures to us. They can be emailed to rmacedo at rcn dot com or kd1cy at comcast dot net (emails put this way to prevent spamming)..
..NWS will survey the damage in Western Massachusetts Wednesday. If time allows, they will also review the damage in the Willimantic, CT area..
..Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report for this event. An update will be sent on this Severe Weather Outbreak that affected the region on Wednesday Evening..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report 7/26/11 Severe Weather Outbreak:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1A – Tuesday July 26th, 2011 Severe Weather Update

July 26, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Severe Thunderstorm Watch #686 has been issued until 7 PM for areas just west of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. It is likely that this watch will get expanded eastward as western parts of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area have broken out into sunshine and the marine clouds should fade and allow sunshine across Eastern New England particularly away from the coast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton started at 1215 PM. Weather should get active in western parts of the area starting around 2 PM and should progress eastward through about 8 or 9 PM this evening. This will be the last coordination message issued on today’s threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #686 Information..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1107261536.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #686:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0686.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday July 26th, 2011

July 26, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely this afternoon and evening across Southern New Hampshire and much of Massachusetts north of the Mass. Pike with potential for more isolated strong to severe thunderstorms south of the Mass. Pike. Damaging Winds, large hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather this afternoon into evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 2 PM Today..

At 730 AM, Satellite imagery showed some clouds over Southern New England that should burn off and move east as New York State is largely clear and this should allow sun to break out over the region and this should allow the atmosphere to destablize. A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will then work its way into New England during this afternoon and evening. This disturbance will have strong wind shear profiles to work with and the atmosphere should destabilize sufficiently for the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly along and north of the Mass. Pike in Massachusetts and into Vermont and New Hampshire with Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. SPC has placed this area in a Slight Risk for severe weather. A more isolated strong to severe thunderstorm threat exists south of the Mass. Pike. Activity could begin as early as 2-3 PM lasting through evening or as late as 5 PM lasting through evening.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 2 PM today. This will be the only complete coordination message on this threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Heat and Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – July 22nd, 2011

July 22, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Intense Heat and Humidity will peak today over Southern New England..
..An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from Noon to 6 PM Today for Northern Connecticut, Norfolk, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Northern and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Providence, Kent and Washington Counties of Rhode Island..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 6 PM Today for the remainder of Middlesex, Essex, Worcester, Eastern Hampshire, and Eastern Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts and Hillsborough county New Hampshire..
..Even outside the Heat Warning/Advisory areas, intense heat and humidity is expected particularly away from the coastal waters and anyone spending a prolonged period of time outdoors should use caution and drink plenty of liquids..
..Convective chances over the next couple days look difficult to predict at this time. There is an outside chance for Mesoscale Convective System development tonight into Saturday Morning. Later on Saturday into early Sunday Morning temperatures aloft will cool while it will still be very warm at the surface though not as warm as the past 2 days, this may also allow for convection. Probabilities look low and SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are not anticipated at this time though SKYWARN Self-Activation may be needed and the situation will be monitored closely. Below is the NWS Taunton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement, Heat Safety Rules and Area Forecast Discussion that discusses convective chances over the region later today through Early Sunday..

NWS Taunton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS/NOAA Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtml

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Heat and Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – July 21st, 2011

July 21, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Intense Heat and Humidity could cause issues for anyone working outdoors for an extended period of time across much of the region. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 9 PM Today and an Excessive Heat Watch for Friday Afternoon for Northern Connecticut, Central and Eastern Massachusetts, North-Central Rhode Island, and Southeast New Hampshire. Even outside of these areas, intense heat and humidity could cause issues fpr anyone outdoors in other portions of Southern New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Northern New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms with portions of Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts from the Mass. Pike northward in a low probability category for isolated severe thunderstorms. Damaging Winds and Large Hail are the primary threats. Threat would be contingnent on thunderstorms overcoming a cap and being able to tap into extreme instability values over the area. If thunderstorms cannot break the cap, weather will be hot and dry over the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity could cause health issues for people with extended exposure outdoors. Heat Advisories have been issued for today and Excessive Heat Watches for Friday have been issued. See link below for NWS Taunton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch information and NWS/NOAA heat safety rules:

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory/Excessive Heat Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS/NOAA Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtml

While the heat will be the major story for Southern New England, Isolated Severe Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over portions of Southern New England particularly over Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts from the Mass. Pike northward. The atmosphere will have a strong cap which would impede convection but there will also be extreme instability. In Northern New England, an impulse will allow for the forcing required to break the cap and could cause a complex of severe weather, either a bow echo of storms or Mesoscale Convective System to organize and swing through that area with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats. If the impulse gets far enough south or can allow for the cap to break in portions of Southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts north of the pike, this could allow for isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail as the primary threats over this area. It is also possible that activity stays north of the NWS Taunton CWA resulting in just very hot and dry weather and the severe weather threat is a low risk probability but because of the extreme instability with the heat and humidity, it is worth mentioning this in a coordination message in case thunderstorms can organize to the south of the prime threat zone of Northern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later today and this evening if the threat for severe thunderstorms occurs over the area. This will be the only coordination message unless time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Local Storm Report (7/18/11) & Post Severe Weather Event Analysis

July 19, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

Today’s severe weather event was more isolated in scope and this had to do with a weakening Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that went over the area during the late morning and afternoon hours. This caused extensive cloud cover precluding a more widespread event. One isolated strong thunderstorm associated with the MCS caused minor wind damage in West Newbury, Mass with a 39 Knot measured wind gust at Eastern Point Gloucester, Mass. followed by an isolated severe thunderstorm affecting the Wareham, South Plymouth, and Bourne, Massachusetts area. An Isolated to Scattered strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorm or two could still occur over the overnight hours but the threat for a more widespread event has diminished and the threat for this isolated to scattered activity is low and will be monitored with SKYWARN Self-Activation. Weather models have difficulties with Mesoscale Convective Systems and can sometimes miss a system and its position entirely. This was the case today with the MCS that went through the area during the late Monday Morning and Afternoon timeframe limiting the severe weather threat.

The following Local Storm Reports highlight the activity from today’s minor weather event:

http://beta.wx1box.org/local/LSR_7_18_11.txt

As warmer temperatures approach towards the Thursday to Friday timeframe with the potential for temperatures well into the 90s to perhaps 100 degrees, the threat for severe weather could hinge on Mesoscale Convective Systems, their timing, intensity and track toward the area. This will make for challenging convective forecasts during this period. Along with the heat, the potential for severe weather will need possible monitoring as we move toward this portion of the week.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Monday July 18th, 2011 Threat

July 18, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potential exists for a Severe Weather Outbreak across much of Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail, urban/poor drainage flooding to isolated flash flooding and isolated supercells are the primary threats..
..Threat timeframe is anytime after 11 AM today. The Storm Prediction Center and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a high-end Slight Risk of severe weather for much of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 11 AM today..

At 7 AM, Doppler Radar showed a weakening area of showers and embedded thunderstorms over Southern New Hampshire. This will affect northeast Massachusetts before racing out to sea. A complex of strong thunderstorms is over Lake Ontario diving Southeastward. This will get into Central and Eastern New York later this morning and could get into portions of Western New England early to mid this afternoon and into Central and Eastern New England mid to late afternoon. Satellite imagery at 7 AM shows some mid to high level clouds over Southern New England that should clear out and allow for heating and destablization over the next few hours. Presuming the complex over Lake Ontario holds together as expected, this will likely be the complex that produces a potentially widespread severe weather episode over the region. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly isolated flash flooding and isolated supercells are the main threats. It is noted that the Storm Prediction Center has put Southern New England back into the high percentage slight risk for severe thunderstorm category and NWS Taunton is in agreement. This event is not expected to be as potent as June 1st of this year but it should be a potentially active severe weather day in the region and today’s storms should be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after 11 AM today. This will likely be the last complete coordination message as we move into operations mode. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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