August 2011 – Page 3

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday August 2nd, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

August 2, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely today across Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and NWS Taunton is in agreement. Western areas may see an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm but the main threat for today should be in Eastern New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely today anytime after Noon today..

Satellite imagery shows clear skies over the region this morning. The Cold front remains back into Eastern New York and because of its slower movement, this resulted in most of the severe weather being in Western New England on Monday and will set the stage for a second day of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threat for today should be over Southeast New Hampshire, Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island where NWS Taunton and SPC are in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather today. An isolated strong or severe thunderstorm or two could occur in Western parts of the NWS Taunton County Warning area depending on the movement of the front and how quickly it moves into the area. If its more towards early afternoon, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible but if its more toward morning, this should reduce the threat in western areas. Temperatures aloft will remain cold and wind shear profiles will be stronger today than yesterday. Instability will not be quite as high as yesterday due to lower dewpoints but the cold pool aloft along with stronger wind shear profiles will compensate for somewhat lower instability today. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding will be the primary threats.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely anytime after noon today. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday August 2nd, 2011 Severe Weather Event

August 2, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..After today’s severe weather was confined largely to Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut, another conditional threat for severe weather with isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms exists for portions of Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts from Norfolk County Massachusetts northward. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat is contingent on another wave of low pressure/upper level system moving close enough to the area. Models have trended the system towards the Northeast portions of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area. It is noted that shear profiles are stronger Tuesday than Monday. If sufficient destablization occurs with a trigger, there should be isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the northeast portions of the region. Threat timeframe is after 2 PM ET..
..SPC has portions of Southern New England in a ‘See Text’/5% severe weather risk category for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely on Tuesday. Further details will be posted in a coordination message issued by 8 AM Tuesday..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1108012258.nwus51.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1108011715.acus02.html

Also, here is the Monday August 1st Local Storm Report from today’s severe weather event:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1108012258.nwus51.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2A – Monday August 1st, 2011 Severe Weather Threat

August 1, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 1230 PM lasting through early evening for scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms that will develop over the area this afternoon and evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Severe Weather Threat for Monday August 1st, 2011

August 1, 2011 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely this Afternoon and Evening across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area. Damaging Winds, Large Hail, and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Covering the entire region with a threat timeframe between 1 and 8 PM Today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely starting as early as Noon Today..

At 630 AM Satellite Imagery shows mainly clear skies over Southern New England. A small complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is present over Southwest and South-Central New York spreading southeast. This is responsible for some cloud cover over Central New York that is also moving southeast. The cloud cover may clip parts of Western New England but overall heating and destablization is expected over the region setting up scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms over the region this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching upper level low pressure system and cold front that will swing through the region today. Wind shear profiles will not be as strong as some of the prior event this summer and are a bit marginal but combined with the expected instability and cooling temperatures aloft, scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of the NWS Taunton County Warning Area Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. SPC and NWS Taunton remain in agreement on a Slight Risk for severe weather across the entire NWS Taunton County Warning Area with a threat timeframe between 1-8 PM Monday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Monday anytime after Noon. This will be the last complete coordination message on today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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