Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, Large Hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a Slight Risk for Severe Weather Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will approach the region Saturday Afternoon and Evening bringing more seasonable temperatures and less humidity for the first half of next week. As the front approaches, the atmosphere should be unstable with good wind shear profiles aloft. Some other severe weather parameters are not quite as favorable but the approach of the cold front into an unstable atmosphere with reasonably strong wind shear should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop over the region with damaging winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe will be Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening and SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for that timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely on Saturday. Another coordination message will be issued by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..At the request of NWS Taunton, SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 400-415 PM to monitor severe weather potential over the region. A few heavy downpours have formed in the North Shore to Braintree area and additional activity could form over the next few hours. This will be the last message on severe weather potential for July 4th..

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms remain possible late this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area with some models indicating that Southern New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts may be at greatest risk for isolated to scattered severe weather activity. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC and NWS Taunton maintain the 5% probability of severe weather risk over the area..
..Much of the region is clearing out this morning in the wake of earlier showers and isolated downpours which will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 90’s with high humidity. Much of the region will remain dry but isolated to scattered locations could receive a shower or thunderstorm and a couple to few locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the severe weather potential for later Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for the same time period..

At 1030 AM, Satellite and Radar imagery indicate clearing conditions across much of Southern New England. Clouds across Southeast Massachusetts and Southern Rhode Island will move out of the area allowing for temperatures to rise quickly with much higher humidity there as well. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower 90s.

As this occurs, the atmosphere will destabilize over the course of the day with good wind shear profiles over the region. Warmer temperatures aloft and the lack of a trigger will keep the atmosphere capped for a good portion of the day across the region and this will mean little in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity during the day. As we get into late this afternoon and this evening, an impulse will approach the region from southern Canada and this may allow for the cap to be broken allowing for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat is conditional on the impulse being able to break the cap and tap into the unstable environment and wind shear aloft. Models seem to indicate that Southern New Hampshire and Eastern Massachusetts may be an area to watch though all areas should monitor the situation. As stated in this coordination message and prior messages, much of the region will remain dry but isolated to scattered locations could receive a shower or thunderstorm and a couple to few locations could see a strong to severe thunderstorm.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the severe weather potential for later Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Evening. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for the same time period. This will be the last full coordination message on today’s threat. Given the 4th of July holiday and many outdoor activities, a shortened coordination message will be issued later today, likely prior to or around 800 PM this evening, either indicating the threat is cleared or if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated or SKYWARN Self-Activation is actively monitoring activity over the region. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be possible for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..

..Uncertainities remain with what occurs with convection during the early morning hours of Wednesday and what impacts that has on the environment for later Wednesday. Anyone with outdoor interests particularly given the amount of them occurring for July 4th/Independence Day activities should continue to monitor later forecasts. It will not be a washout and many areas will remain dry but events impacted by thunderstorms, particularly strong to severe thunderstorms, could have issues so monitoring later forecasts remains prudent..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued with a severe weathre threat level of ‘See Text’/5% severe weather probability owing to uncertainties in what evolves for convection and storms during the early morning hours Wednesday. This could get upgraded if conditions become more certain for severe weather for later Wednesday Afternoon and evening.

The two different scenario setup as indicated in the last coordination message remains in play. Wind fields should be sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development, the keys for severe weather development later Wednesday Afternoon and Evening are the amount of cloud cover over the region from any shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday Morning and whether expected heating and destablization is realized and sufficient triggering for thunderstorms to develop. The information from the previous message on the two scenarios is brought forward to this message below.

The first sceneario would be that convection that occurs during Wednesday Morning will mitigate heating and destablization lessening the threat for showers and thunderstorms and a severe weather threat for later in the day Wednesday. The second scenario is that this activity moves through quickly and allows for clearing, heating and destablization that would allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and even the potential for a more potent severe weather outbreak. The forecast is uncertain in the regards to the severe weather magnitude but odds favor at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. If enough clearing and other parameters line up, a more potent severe weather episode would be possible. Given the amount of outdoor activities for July 4th, future forecasts should be monitored closely for changes as the initial set of convection moves through Wednesday Morning and what that means for potential severe weather later Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1100 AM Wednesday Morning to update the July 4th severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator

Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator

Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)

Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)

Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)

Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com

http://ares.ema.arrl.org

http://beta.wx1box.org

 

Read more

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms continue to be possible for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Uncertainities exist with what occurs with convection during the early morning hours of Wednesday and what impacts that has on the environment for later Wednesday. Anyone with outdoor interests particularly given the amount of them occurring for July 4th/Independence Day activities should continue to monitor later forecasts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday..

This morning the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reduced the threat level for severe weather from Slight Risk to ‘See Text’/5% severe weather probability owing to uncertainties in what evolves for convection and storms during the early morning hours Wednesday. They also stated, however, that a Slight risk could be reintroduced in later outlooks.

Essentially, two scenarios could evolve for July 4th. The first sceneario would be that convection that occurs during Wednesday Morning will mitigate heating and destablization lessening the threat for showers and thunderstorms and a severe weather threat for later in the day Wednesday. The second scenario is that this activity moves through quickly and allows for clearing, heating and destablization that would allow for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and even the potential for a more potent severe weather outbreak. The forecast is uncertain in the regards to the severe weather magnitude but odds favor at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. If enough clearing and other parameters line up, a more potent severe weather episode would be possible. Given the amount of outdoor activities for July 4th, future forecasts should be monitored closely for changes as the initial set of convection moves through Wednesday Morning and what that means for potential severe weather later Wednesday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be issued by 1130 PM this evening to update Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated Strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorms possible this Monday afternoon into early evening. The greatest threat would be in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island but all areas should monitor. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Instability and shear is forecast to be less than on Sunday which should mean less storms over the area but an isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out over the area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the threat for this afternoon into early tonight. Ops at NWS Taunton will be possible if the threat becomes more widespread. This will be the only message on today’s threat unless the threat becomes more widespread and Ops are initiated. The NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook is posted below for reference..
..Looking ahead to Wednesday July 4th, it is noted that both NWS Taunton and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are in agreement on a Slight risk for Severe Weather for the entire region with SPC posting the slight risk in their Day-3 Convective Outlook. There are still some uncertainties but the potential exists for severe weather Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across the region. If a Slight risk for severe weather remains in the Tuesday Morning SPC Day-2 convective outlook, coordination messages for Wednesday July 4th will start Tuesday Morning to cover the potential threat given the significant number of outdoor activities for July 4th. The SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook is posted for reference..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

Read more

Hello to all..

..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence starting at 2 PM Sunday Afternoon lasting through early evening for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms potential for portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts during this Sunday afternoon into early evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. SPC has upgraded portions of Southern New England (Specifically portions of Connecticut) to a Slight Risk for Severe Weather and parts of the area could be under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch later today per the Mesoscale Convective Discussion issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This will be the last update on today’s severe weather threat. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Mesoscale Convective Discussion..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1332.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

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Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible for portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts during this Sunday afternoon into early evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Biggest question for any threat of a few strong to severe thunderstorms is the ability of a weak frontal boundary to be able to tap into the unstable atmosphere and wind shear profiles to allow for thunderstorm development..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will montior today’s threat. Ops at NWS Taunton would be possible if the threat becomes more widespread..

Hazy, Hot and Humid weather will occur Sunday over much of the region. Unlike the past warm days, where a lack of a trigger and capping in the atmosphere prevented any thunderstorm development, there is the possibility that a weak frontal boundary moving into the area may be enough of a trigger to allow for the formation of a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The greatest risk for any strong to severe thunderstorms would be over Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts south of the Massachusetts Turnpike. There is some question as to whether this frontal boundary will be enough of a trigger to tap into an enviroment of instability and shear over the area. If there is not enough forcing, little to no activity could occur, however given the shear profiles and instability and the fact that there is at least some possible focus for thunderstorm devleopment, a message is warranted to monitor the threat for Sunday Afternoon into early this evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the situation and activate as required for any strong to severe thunderstorms that can develop. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible if the threat becomes widespread. This will be the only message on today’s threat unless Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated and time allows to send out an updated shortened coordination message. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org

 

Read more