Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday May 29th, 2013 Potential Severe Weather Event
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday Afternoon to Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban/poor-drainage flooding are the primary threats with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing this region in a slight risk for severe weather with the timeframe anytime between Noon and 9 PM. There is also a more limited severe weather threat with possible urban/poor drainage flooding issues with a complex of storms associated with the warm front currently evolving over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the complex of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
At 905 PM, Doppler Radar shows a complex of showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front with heavy rainfall and even an isolated severe weather threat over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania. This activity will move through Southern New England overnight into Wednesday Morning. The threat for any severe weather with this feature is limited but cannot be entirely ruled out. There is a slightly higher risk of urban and poor drainage flooding than severe weather with this complex.
As this activity moves out of the area Wednesday Morning, the question will become how much heating and destabilization can occur behind the warm front across Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut with good shear profiles in place as the warm front moves through this area and slows over Eastern New England. If sufficient heating and destabilization can occur with the wind shear profiles in place, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe is between Noon and 9 PM and the Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the complex of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 10 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1305281721.acus02.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible Wednesday Afternoon to Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, and urban/poor-drainage flooding are the primary threats with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing this region in a slight risk for severe weather with the timeframe anytime between Noon and 9 PM. There is also a more limited severe weather threat with possible urban/poor drainage flooding issues with a complex of storms associated with the warm front currently evolving over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the complex of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
At 905 PM, Doppler Radar shows a complex of showers and thunderstorms associated with the warm front with heavy rainfall and even an isolated severe weather threat over Western New York and Western Pennsylvania. This activity will move through Southern New England overnight into Wednesday Morning. The threat for any severe weather with this feature is limited but cannot be entirely ruled out. There is a slightly higher risk of urban and poor drainage flooding than severe weather with this complex.
As this activity moves out of the area Wednesday Morning, the question will become how much heating and destabilization can occur behind the warm front across Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Connecticut with good shear profiles in place as the warm front moves through this area and slows over Eastern New England. If sufficient heating and destabilization can occur with the wind shear profiles in place, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. The threat timeframe is between Noon and 9 PM and the Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a slight risk for severe weather.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the complex of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 10 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1305281721.acus02.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box