Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 9/11/13-Friday Morning 9/13/13 Severe Weather Potential

September 11, 2013 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Intense Heat and Humidity for the next two days will then lead to the potential for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms later Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night and again Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning as a cold front approaches the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this afternoon and tonight and again Thursday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect from Norfolk County Massachusetts northeastward through Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast Hillsborough County New Hampshire from 1 to 6 PM today..

After low clouds and fog burn off over the region, temperatures will rise quickly into the upper 80’s to lower-mid 90s across the region with high humidity’s setting up for very hot and humid weather today and lasting through Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect from Norfolk County Massachusetts northeastward through Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast Hillsborough County New Hampshire from 1-6 PM today.

As we get into later this afternoon and evening, the atmosphere will become strongly unstable with sufficient wind shear profiles for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats but there is a lack of a well defined trigger to tap into the wind shear and unstable atmosphere. For later today and tonight, activity could be isolated or possibly stay north and west of Southern New England. This will be monitored throughout the day.

As we get into Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning, a strong cold front will move into the region likely enhancing the threat for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms again with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban/poor drainage flooding as the main threats. The key item for this timeframe will be the timing of the cold front and any pre-frontal trough with the peak instability expected for the day. Temperatures will be warm and humid and likely be at least in the mid-upper 80s possibly into the lower 90s again. The cold front will be through the region Friday Morning bringing an end to the summer-like heat and bringing a dry autumn-like weather weekend.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening and again Thursday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only complete coordination message on Wednesday’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued as time allows and if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Another coordination message on the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning will be posted either late tonight or Thursday Morning. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1/Day-2 Outlooks and NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

NWS Taunton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,