March 2014

Storm Coordination Message #4 – Monday 3/31/14 Storm Impacts

March 31, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Coastal Storm Wraps Up Impacts to the region today and tonight with a light Wintry Mix/Cold Rain, Minor Coastal Flooding issues and Strong Winds along East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod from 10 AM-3 PM today for the midday high tide cycle and from 11 PM today through 3 AM Tuesday Morning for the midnight high tide cycle. Minor flooding of shore roads is possible at both of these high tide cycles..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from Noon today through 500 AM Tuesday. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts from 11 AM-8 PM today. Sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH are likely in the Wind Advisory areas. This may cause isolated tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Southern New Hampshire, Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, Worcester, Western Essex, Northern and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire through 10 AM today for snow and sleet accumulations up to 1 inch and a trace of ice..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the day and tonight for minor coastal flood potential at high tide, strong winds in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands and wintry conditions in north-central portions of the coverage area. This will be the last message on the storm unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Winter Weather Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Saturday 3/29/14-Monday 3/31/14 Coastal Storm Event – Flood Reports Through Sunday 3/30 and Continued Storm effects through 3/31/14

March 31, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Widespread Rainfall of 2-5″ with isolated higher amounts occurred across Southern New England. Highest Rainfall Amounts occurred in Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island where significant flooding to flash flooding occurred during the morning though early afternoon hours. Showery rains will continue overnight into Monday. Renewed flooding is not currently expected but will be monitored..
..Colder air on Northeast Winds will bring the threat for some light icing conditions in northwest areas and minor coastal flooding for East Coastal Massachusetts..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from Franklin, Northern Worcester, Northern Middlesex, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts and Cheshire and West-Central Hillsborough Counties of New Hampshire through 10 AM Monday for ice accumulation of 1/4″ or less and up to 1″ of snow..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through 300 AM Monday for minor shore road flooding for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod. A Coastal Flood Advisory is also in effect from 10 AM-300 PM Monday (midday high tide) for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor conditions through Midday Monday. Another coordination message will be posted if time allows and if it is necessary. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement and raw SKYWARN log of rainfall and flood reports along with the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

Amateur Radio SKYWARN Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_3_30_14.txt

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 3/29/14-Monday 3/31/14 Coastal Storm Event

March 30, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Long Duration Storm System will Bring Heavy Rainfall, Several rounds of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding, strong winds along coastal areas and even the potential for wintry precipitation in northwest areas. Storm will be long duration affecting the region from tonight through Monday Afternoon/Evening..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect from Saturday Evening through Monday Afternoon for Southern New Hampshire. A Flood Watch remains in effect from Saturday Evening through Monday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest Rhode Island..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and Newport, Bristol and Eastern Kent Counties of Rhode Island from 6-10 AM Sunday for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide on most exposed coastal areas for shore road flooding..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts from 9 AM-2 PM Sunday for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide. Additional tide cycles maybe affected Sunday Evening through Monday Evening..
..At this time, winds will stay below Wind Advisory through Sunday Afternoon with winds gusting perhaps up to 40 MPH but may now reach Wind Advisory criteria Sunday Evening into Monday Morning. This will be monitored as we get into Sunday..
..Northwest Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire may seem some level of icing as cold air attempts to wrap into the system Sunday Night into Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall reports, and urban/poor drainage/river/stream flooding as well as the coastal flood threat through Sunday Morning. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as well..

A long duration storm system will affect the region with a variety of weather impacts tonight through Monday Afternoon and evening. The impacts include, heavy rainfall and potential for urban and small stream/river flooding, minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles, strong winds and then wintry precipitation in Northwest Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire Sunday Night into Monday. This coordination message will break down the impacts.

In the flood watch areas, there have been no significant changes to the forecast. Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts remain likely and with vegetation dormant, this may allow for urban, and small stream flooding. In northern parts of the Flood Watch area, there is also a low potential for ice jam flooding along rivers and streams. Areas outside of the Flood Watch area should monitor for typical urban and poor drainage issues from a likely 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts.

For the Coastal Flood Advisory area, a round of minor coastal flooding is expected to impact the most vulnerable shore roads of South Coastal Bristol, Newport, Bristol and Eastern Kent Counties of Rhode Island during the Sunday Morning high tide cycle due to southerly wind flow. The minor coastal flood threat will then shift into East Coastal Massachusetts for the midday high tide cycle and a Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended into this region for that high tide cycle. As winds turn more Northeast to North-Northeast and strengthen, the potential exists for additional rounds of minor to potentially moderate coastal flooding over future high tide cycles for East Coastal Massachusetts. This will be monitored for those additional high tide cycles and part of the reason for the impacts are the high astronomical tides over this time period.

Strong winds up to 40 MPH will impact coastal areas through Sunday Morning. These winds may strengthen Sunday Evening into Monday potentially reaching Wind Advisory criteria. The strength of these winds may also impact the coastal flood potential for additional high tide cycles in East Coastal Massachusetts.

Finally, northwest Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire could see a period of icing as colder air wraps into the system Sunday Night into Monday Morning. This will be updated in future coordination messages on this storm.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall reports, and urban/poor drainage/river/stream flooding as well as the coastal flood threat through Sunday Morning. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as well for a portion of the storm system depending on the strength of the winds, coastal flood potential, urban/small stream flood potential and the winter weather potential for northwest parts of the area. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Sunday Morning. Below are the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 3/29/14-Monday 3/31/14 Coastal Storm Event

March 29, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Coastal Storm System will bring Heavy Rainfall potential and possible flooding particularly for urban areas and small streams along with minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide along Southeast Coastal New England Sunday Morning..
..A Flood Watch is in effect from Saturday Evening through Monday Afternoon for Southern New Hampshire. A Flood Watch is in effect from Saturday Evening through Monday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest Rhode Island. In the flood watch areas, 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are likely and with vegetation dormant, this may allow for urban, and small stream flooding. In northern parts of the Flood Watch area, there is also a low potential for ice jam flooding along rivers and streams. Areas outside of the Flood Watch area should monitor for typical urban and poor drainage issues from a likely 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts and Newport, Bristol and Eastern Kent Counties of Rhode Island from 6-10 AM Sunday for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide on most exposed coastal areas for shore road flooding..
..At this time, winds will stay below Wind Advisory thresholds but coastal areas could see wind gusts of up to 40 MPH from this storm system..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall reports, and urban/poor drainage/river/stream flooding as well as the coastal flood threat. A more extensive coordination message will be posted by 900 PM this evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #5 – Tuesday Night 3/25/14-Wednesday 3/26/14 Winter Storm Event

March 26, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Model Uncertainty Remains Higher Than Normal but have converged sufficiently on a current solution as outlined with this coordination message. It is noted that subtle changes in track by as little as 30-50 miles could still cause a significant change regarding snowfall amounts in Eastern and Southeast New England and where on Cape Cod and the Islands blizzard conditions will occur. Strong to Damaging Winds will be a threat especially in Southeast New England but in other parts of interior and coastal Southern New England..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect for Midnight Tonight through 2 PM Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for a general 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ on Outer Cape and potentially Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island with blizzard conditions likely. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from Midnight Tonight Through Noon Wednesday for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 2-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts closer to the Cape Cod Canal and blowing and drifting snow likely..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 6-10 AM EDT for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide likely..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 6-10 AM EDT for Southeast Coastal Massachusetts from the Greater Boston area south to Plymouth for minor coastal flooding with isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding between Hull and Plymouth..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern and Southern Plymouth County Massachusetts from 5 AM to 8 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-70 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are likely..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the remainder of the NWS Taunton Coverage Area from 6 AM to 8 PM Wednesday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 45-55 MPH with the strongest gusts over portions of the coast and Eastern New England. Isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible to likely..
..In terms of snowfall, areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory/Blizzard Warning area from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border will now see a Dusting-2″ of snow. It is possible with a slightly closer track that areas from Boston and the MA/RI border to the current advisory areas could see slightly higher amounts with a slightly closer storm track to our area. Farther inland, little to no snow accumulation is expected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 530 AM Wednesday Morning. Pictures of coastal flooding, wind damage and blizzard conditions can be sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for providing the pictures unless otherwise indicated and will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management and the media..

Model solutions have now reached a reasonable agreement on the current storm scenario though there remains higher than normal variability between the different models and some higher than normal variation run to run of the various models. As stated, wobbles in the track guidance, now as little as 30-50 miles will have significant impacts on the forecast. A track further west would increase impacts to Southeast New England and may allow for slightly higher snowfall amounts over the Boston to Providence Corridor. A track 30-50 miles further east would mean lighter impacts to the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the greatest impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands. As with many of our offshore systems this winter, there will be a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and lighter snowfall and will be monitored closely throughout this storm.

The blizzard/storm coordination message headlines above depict the current forecast scenario well. One item to emphasize and is likely the highest confidence portion of this event is the strong to damaging wind potential despite the offshore track of the storm system. The strength of the system and its size will allow for damaging winds on Cape Cod and the Islands and Eastern and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts with the potential for gusts to hurricane force on the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island with isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Strong to damaging winds particularly along other coastal areas and interior Eastern New England and strong winds well into the interior are also likely. This has prompted the Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings as noted in the headlines.

From a coastal flood perspective, the headlines depict the current scenario of minor to moderate coastal flooding for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island meaning potential for flooding of shore roads and potential shore road closures. In the area from Boston to Plymouth, minor coastal flooding of shore roads is expected with the potential for pockets of moderate coastal flooding between Hull and Plymouth.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 530 AM Wednesday Morning. Pictures of coastal flooding, wind damage and blizzard conditions can be sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for providing the pictures unless otherwise indicated and will be shared with the National Weather Service, Emergency Management and the media. This will be the last coordination message on this system as we move into activation/operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday Night 3/25/14-Wednesday 3/26/14 Winter Storm Event

March 25, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Model Uncertainty Remains Higher Than Normal with Major Coastal Storm/Nor’easter that will attempt to take aim on portions of Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England with the threats of Heavy Snow, Near Blizzard to Blizzard Conditions and Strong to Damaging Winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday and the potential for minor to moderate Coastal Flooding at the time of the Wednesday Morning high tide on north and east facing coastal areas of Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for a general 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ on Outer Cape and potentially Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island with the potential for blizzard conditions depending on the track of the storm. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible depending on how close the coastal storm tracks toward the coast. Considerable blowing and drifting snow possible along with isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from late tonight through Wednesday Evening for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island depending on how close the coastal storm tracks toward the region..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border may see advisory level snowfall at this time but this will ultimately depend on the track of this major coastal storm/nor’easter and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up. Farther inland, little to no snow accumulation is expected..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon..

Model solutions still have a wide variance as of Tuesday Morning. The European model has been the most consistent with its track closest to but still southeast of the 40 North/70 West benchmark. The European model was joined by one of the American short-term models late Monday Afternoon and Evening on this closer storm track. This remains at odds with a second American and Canadian model and a second European model which has a more offshore track confining the impacts to Cape Cod and the Islands. Wobbles in the track guidance of as little as 50-100 miles will have significant impacts on the forecast as we have said from the start of tracking this system. A track 50-100 miles further west would mean impacts through much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with even greater impacts to Southeast New England. A track 50-100 miles further east would mean lighter impacts to the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the greatest impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands. As with many of our offshore systems this winter, there will be a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and strongest winds versus lighter winds and lighter snowfall. This will be monitored closely into Tuesday Evening. All models agree this is a powerful coastal storm/nor’easter and for that reason bears close monitoring across all of Eastern New England given uncertainties in the track guidance. The following represents the latest update of current thinking for this system and continue to indicate the most significant impacts would be over Cape Cod and the Islands as well as portions of Southeast Massachusetts and extreme Southeast Rhode Island. Confidence was still not high enough to convert Blizzard and Winter Storm Watches to Warnings, however, the High Wind threat for Cape Cod and the Islands is probably the highest confidence of the forecast to date.

A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts of 12″ possible on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and the potential for blizzard conditions depending on how close the coastal system passes through the region. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 50 MPH causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow depending on how close the coastal system passes through the region. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding. For areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area particularly from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border, advisory level snow remains possible depending on the track of the major coastal storm and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up. Further west, little to no snow accumulation is expected.

It is noted that despite the offshore track of the system, one of the bigger concerns and highest confidence points of the forecast will be strong to damaging winds over Cape Cod and the Islands and the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with wind gusts to 60-65 MPH and even a low probability of wind gusts to near hurricane force over the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island depending on how close the system tracks to the region. A High Wind Watch is now in effect from late tonight through Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands given the confidence on the wind threat. Strong winds will also affect much of Southeast Massachusetts particularly at the coast with wind gusts up to 50 MPH possibly causing isolated tree and wire damage and power outages.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon. The next coordination message will be posted by 830 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday Night 3/25/14-Wednesday 3/26/14 Winter Storm Event

March 24, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Major Coastal Storm/Nor’easter will attempt to take aim on portions of Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England with the threats of Heavy Snow, Near Blizzard to Blizzard Conditions and Strong to Damaging Winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday and the potential for minor to moderate Coastal Flooding at the time of the Wednesday Morning high tide on north and east facing coastal areas of Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for a general 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts to 12″ on Outer Cape and potentially Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island with the potential for blizzard conditions. Isolated to Scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. Considerable blowing and drifting snow possible along with isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border may see advisory level snowfall at this time but this will ultimately depend on the track of this major coastal storm/nor’easter and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up. There is still some higher than normal model disparity affecting confidence in storm impacts for this event..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon..

Model solutions still have a fairly wide variance as of Monday afternoon with one camp of models (the European models) giving a slightly closer track to Southern New England while the American models give a track further offshore. Wobbles in the track guidance of as little as 50-100 miles will have significant impacts on the forecast. A track 50-100 miles further west would mean impacts through much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with even greater impacts to Southeast New England. A track 50-100 miles further east would mean lighter impacts to the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the greatest impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands. As with many of our offshore systems this winter, there will be a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and strongest winds versus lighter winds and lighter snowfall. This will be monitored closely tonight into Tuesday Morning. All models agree this is a powerful coastal storm/nor’easter and for that reason bears close monitoring across all of Eastern New England given uncertainties in the track guidance. The following represents the latest update of current thinking for this system and continue to indicate the most significant impacts would be over Cape Cod and the Islands as well as portions of Southeast Massachusetts and extreme Southeast Rhode Island.

A Blizzard Watch remains in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts of 12″ possible on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and possibly higher gusts to hurricane force on Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island and the potential for blizzard conditions. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 50 MPH causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding. For areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area particularly from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border, advisory level snow remains possible depending on the track of the major coastal storm and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up.

It is noted that despite the offshore track of the system, one of the bigger concerns will be strong to damaging winds over Cape Cod and the Islands and the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages with wind gusts to 60-65 MPH and even a low probability of wind gusts to near hurricane force over the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island. Strong winds will also affect much of Southeast Massachusetts particularly at the coast with wind gusts up to 50 MPH possibly causing isolated tree and wire damage and power outages.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon. The next coordination message will be posted by 830 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Night 3/25/14-Wednesday 3/26/14 Winter Storm Event

March 24, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Major Coastal Storm/Nor’easter will attempt to take aim on portions of Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England with the threats of Heavy Snow, Near Blizzard to Blizzard Conditions and Strong to Damaging Winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday and the potential for minor to moderate Coastal Flooding at the time of the Wednesday Morning high tide on north and east facing coastal areas of Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Cape Cod and the Islands for 6″ or more of snow and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and possibly higher gusts with the potential for blizzard conditions..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Morning for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 6″ or more of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. Considerable blowing and drifting snow possible..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border may see advisory level snowfall at this time but this will ultimately depend on the track of this major coastal storm/nor’easter and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up. There is still some higher than normal model disparity affecting confidence in storm impacts for this event..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon..

Model solutions still have a fairly wide variance as of Monday Morning but some wobbles to the east of the storm track have shifted a bit west particularly with the European model guidance overnight. For several days, model solutions with some variance have indicated the most significant impacts would be over Cape Cod and the Islands as well as portions of Southeast Massachusetts and extreme Southeast Rhode Island. Taking all current guidance into account, a Blizzard Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for 6″ or more of snow and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and the potential for blizzard conditions. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island for 6″ or more of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow. A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for the Wednesday Morning high tide for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding. For areas outside of the Winter Storm/Blizzard Watch area particularly from the North Shore of Massachusetts and the Boston to Providence corridor through the Connecticut/Rhode Island border, advisory level snow is possible depending on the track of the major coastal storm and where the sharp cutoff between light snow and heavier accumulating snow lines up.

As stated in the prior coordination message, the European model guidance has a closer storm track. After a wobble east in the track yesterday, it has wobbled west with the track overnight. American model guidance remains further offshore with the greatest impacts confined to Cape Cod and the Islands. Track differences of as little as 50-100 miles can still have significant impact on the forecast. A track 50-100 miles further west would mean impacts through much of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island with even greater impacts to Southeast New England. A track 50-100 miles further east would mean lighter impacts to the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island and the greatest impacts over Cape Cod and the Islands. As with many of our offshore systems this winter, there will be a sharp cutoff between heavier snow and strongest winds versus lighter winds and lighter snowfall. This will be monitored closely today. All models agree this is a powerful coastal storm/nor’easter and for that reason bears close monitoring across all of Eastern New England given uncertainties in the track guidance.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely late Tuesday Evening through Wednesday Afternoon. The next coordination message will be posted by 700 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:

NWS Taunton Blizzard/Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Night 3/25/14-Wednesday 3/26/14 Winter Storm Event

March 23, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Strong Coastal Storm/Nor’easter to potentially impact portions of Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England, Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Exact specific impacts remain uncertain as well as northern and western extent of most potent impacts but the potential exist for Heavy Snow, Strong to Damaging Winds Tuesday Night into Wednesday for portions of Southeast New England and Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding at the time of the Wednesday Morning High Tide on north and east facing coastal areas of Cape Cod, Nantucket and possibly other parts of East Coastal Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Tuesday Night into Wednesday..

Computer models have indicated for several days a powerful coastal storm/nor’easter system will organize off the North Carolina coast and then move northeastward to near or southeast of the 40 North/70 West benchmark. The exact track of the storm system will determine the level and extent of impact across the NWS Taunton Coverage Area. Models have been fairly consistent with the primary impacts focused on Southeast New England including Cape Cod and the Islands and South Coastal Massachusetts from Southeast Plymouth County through Southern Bristol County with heavy snow (potentially more than 6″) and the potential for strong to damaging winds with the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of the Wednesday Morning High Tide on north and east facing coastal areas of Cape Cod, Nantucket and possibly other parts of East Coastal Massachusetts. Secondary impacts for a moderate snowfall and strong winds cover much of Southeast Massachusetts as well as East Coastal Massachusetts through Boston and the North Shore. A lighter snowfall is possible elsewhere in Southern New England.

As we have seen all winter with our storm systems that are more offshore, there is likely going to be a sharp cutoff between light snow and the heavier snowfall and strong to damaging wind threat. Future model runs should assist with delineating this line. A track difference of just 50-100 miles could vary the impact over the area significantly with a 50-100 mile westward shift meaning a greater impact in Eastern New England including South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands while a shift 50-100 miles eastward could mean lesser impacts and the worst conditions over Cape Cod and Nantucket Island.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible late Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The next coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and NWS Taunton Snowfall Probabilities Maps:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Snowfall Probability Maps:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Flood Safety Awareness Week – 3/17/14-3/21/14

March 23, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

Flood Safety Awareness Week was Monday 3/17/14-Friday 3/21/14 and NWS Taunton issued Public Information Statements as well as created a web link on Flood Safety tips. The links below have the information for Flood Safety Awareness Week:

http://www.weather.gov/box/FloodSafetyAwarenessWeek
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/flood_awareness_pns_2014.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

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