Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 6/25/14-Thursday 6/26/14 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening after 500 PM Wednesday through 2 AM Thursday Morning across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts, and Western Connecticut. Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible from late morning Thursday into Thursday Evening across much of interior Southern New England with a focus across Central and Eastern New England. Again, Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding remain the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form remains likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible on both days..
Warmer and more humid conditions will occur for Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front approaching from the north and west and this will lead to the potential for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and for much of interior Southern New England particularly central and Eastern New England midday Thursday into Thursday Evening as the cold front pushes through the entire region Thursday. Strong to damaging winds and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
For Wednesday, the severe weather potential for Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut will still be determined by the position of the cold front and the amount of mid-level dry air that affects any potential strong to severe thunderstorm development. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization over this area but the cold front could be further north and west limiting the threat or limiting the threat to Wednesday Evening resulting in more of a potential heavy rain, urban and poor drainage and flash flood type of an event. At this time, the cold frontal position should favor the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in this area after 500 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 200 AM Thursday Morning. Heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and strong to potentially damaging winds are the primary threats.
For Thursday, the cold front will move through the region and it will be a similar setup to Wednesday but covering much of interior Southern New England and maybe more of a heavy rainfall and potential urban and poor drainage and flash flood issue as cloud cover may limit destabilization for any kind of severe thunderstorm development but if sufficient destabilization can occur isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible.
Looking ahead to Friday through Sunday, the annual American Radio Relay League (ARRL) Amateur Radio Field Day weekend, initial indications are for a sunny and gorgeous weekend with little to no threat for thunderstorms and also low humidity. Temperatures will be in the 80s. Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Messages will likely be issued Thursday Evening and Friday and if no significant weather threat for thunderstorms exists, there will be no need to issue any over the weekend.
SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on both days. This will be the last complete coordination message on the threat for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. The next coordination message on the potential for severe weather Thursday will be sent either late tonight or Thursday Morning depending the evolution of Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms remain possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening after 500 PM Wednesday through 2 AM Thursday Morning across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts, and Western Connecticut. Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible from late morning Thursday into Thursday Evening across much of interior Southern New England with a focus across Central and Eastern New England. Again, Strong to Damaging Winds and Heavy Downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding remain the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form remains likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible on both days..
Warmer and more humid conditions will occur for Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front approaching from the north and west and this will lead to the potential for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and for much of interior Southern New England particularly central and Eastern New England midday Thursday into Thursday Evening as the cold front pushes through the entire region Thursday. Strong to damaging winds and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
For Wednesday, the severe weather potential for Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut will still be determined by the position of the cold front and the amount of mid-level dry air that affects any potential strong to severe thunderstorm development. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization over this area but the cold front could be further north and west limiting the threat or limiting the threat to Wednesday Evening resulting in more of a potential heavy rain, urban and poor drainage and flash flood type of an event. At this time, the cold frontal position should favor the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in this area after 500 PM Wednesday Afternoon through 200 AM Thursday Morning. Heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and strong to potentially damaging winds are the primary threats.
For Thursday, the cold front will move through the region and it will be a similar setup to Wednesday but covering much of interior Southern New England and maybe more of a heavy rainfall and potential urban and poor drainage and flash flood issue as cloud cover may limit destabilization for any kind of severe thunderstorm development but if sufficient destabilization can occur isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms would be possible.
Looking ahead to Friday through Sunday, the annual American Radio Relay League (ARRL) Amateur Radio Field Day weekend, initial indications are for a sunny and gorgeous weekend with little to no threat for thunderstorms and also low humidity. Temperatures will be in the 80s. Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Messages will likely be issued Thursday Evening and Friday and if no significant weather threat for thunderstorms exists, there will be no need to issue any over the weekend.
SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely on Wednesday and Thursday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on both days. This will be the last complete coordination message on the threat for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. The next coordination message on the potential for severe weather Thursday will be sent either late tonight or Thursday Morning depending the evolution of Wednesday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box