June 2015

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday July 1st 2015 Severe Weather Potential

June 30, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England away from the Cape and Islands mid-late Wednesday Morning through late afternoon Wednesday. Strong to Damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall are the primary threats but a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes exists depending on the level of destabilization in the atmosphere and the position of the warm front as it moves through the area..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed much of Southern New England except for the Cape and Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather but could upgrade the region in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 730 AM Wednesday Morning to monitor the severe weather potential..

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across much of Southern New England away from the Cape and Islands mid to late Wednesday Morning through late afternoon Wednesday as a warm front will move through the region Wednesday Morning followed by a cold front in the early to mid-afternoon timeframe on Wednesday. The key item to be resolved is whether there will be clearing to allow for destabilization of the atmosphere or if the level of wind shear and other parameters such as the cold pool of air aloft can overcome a lack of heating to allow for a more potent severe weather event or whether there will be isolated to scattered activity limited by the cloud cover and any morning shower and thunderstorm activity. It is noted that when colder air moves in aloft such as in the scenario for Wednesday, these scenarios have a tendency to be fairly prolific severe weather producers in Southern New England despite cloud cover as well as the possible earlier timing of activity.

The primary threat is for strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall but a secondary threat for isolated tornadoes depending on the level of destabilization and the position of the warm front. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather to much of Southern New England north and west of the Cape and Islands and have noted a possible upgrade in later outlooks. The threat timeframe in more specific terms is a bit earlier than normal with the threat in the 9 AM-4 PM timeframe.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 730 AM Wednesday Morning to monitor the severe weather potential. There is the possibility for one more coordination message to be sent by 900 AM Wednesday or this will be the last coordination message for this event depending on the evolution and timing for any strong to severe thunderstorms in the first part of the morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/1506301752.acus02.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday July 1st, 2015 Severe Weather Potential

June 30, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of interior Southern New England from mid-morning Wednesday to mid to late afternoon Wednesday. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Key items on the severe weather threat will be the amount of instability that can develop given potentially earlier timing of severe weather into the area. Wind shear profiles will be favorable for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday. The next coordination message will be posted by 700 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm/Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message #5 – Saturday 6/27/15-Sunday 6/28/15 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Information

June 27, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the fifth and final message in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 13 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..A windswept rain is expected to develop across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area Saturday Evening through midday Sunday followed by the chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon. This will likely make Amateur Radio Field Day activities wet during the second half of the weekend. Field Day sites are advised to bring rain gear and to prepare for possible windy conditions that could develop as well as for the chance of lightning and thunderstorm activity with the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. A widespread 1-3″ of rainfall is likely Saturday Evening into Sunday. Isolated higher amounts of 3-4″ are also possible..
..The Flood Watch has been expanded in areal coverage. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for Cape Cod and the Islands from tonight through Saturday Afternoon. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties from 2 AM Sunday through late Sunday Night. Urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small stream flooding is the main threat..
..The Wind Advisory has been expanded in areal coverage. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM to Noon Sunday for Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 35-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts closer to the coast and in higher terrain areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from 3 AM-Noon Sunday for Southeast winds at 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will be capable of causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and can cause problems for outdoor Field Day sites with portable outdoor antenna systems, tents, canopies etc. These portable antenna systems, tents and canopies will need to be tied down well given the strong winds. Areas outside of the Wind Advisory in the higher terrain of Western New England could see wind gusts as high as 30 to possibly 40 MPH during the overnight hours into early Sunday Afternoon..
..A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM to 8 PM Sunday for East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island due to strong winds causing high surf and rip current conditions on area beaches..
..Depending on the track of the storm, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk and having the potential for strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall is also possible. The greatest risk appears to be confined to Southeastern New England late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon with the warm sector staying south of the Mass Pike. This will continue to bear watching..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm through this evening and to the first half of the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 530 AM EDT looking for reports of storm conditions and to guard Amateur Radio Field Day sites across Southern New England by providing latest weather data as required..

There are a large number of Amateur Radio Field Day sites across the NWS Taunton Coverage Area and adjacent NWS Coverage Areas. Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: http://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: http://fd.ema.arrl.org/

After dry conditions through Saturday Afternoon with increasing and thickening clouds, storm impacts will begin to be felt later this Saturday Evening and especially during the overnight hours through Noon Sunday. We have broken the various potential weather hazards into sections with this storm:

Heavy Rainfall and Flood Potential:

Rain should commence between 4-8 PM from west to east based on current weather forecast models. Rain will become heavy overnight after midnight with the heaviest rain between 2-11 AM. Rain should end from west to east during the early afternoon. The Flood Watch has been expanded in areal coverage. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for Cape Cod and the Islands from tonight through Saturday Afternoon. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties from 2 AM Sunday through late Sunday Night. Urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small stream flooding is the main threat. Widespread 1-3″ rainfall is expected with isolated 3-4″ amounts possible in areas that received the heaviest downpours for the longest period of time.

Strong to Damaging Wind Potential:

The Wind Advisory has been expanded in areal coverage. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 3 AM to Noon Sunday for Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 35-45 MPH with isolated higher gusts closer to the coast and in higher terrain areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from 3 AM-Noon Sunday for Southeast winds at 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will be capable of causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and can cause problems for outdoor Field Day sites with portable outdoor antenna systems, tents, canopies etc. These portable antenna systems, tents and canopies will need to be tied down well given the strong winds. Areas outside of the Wind Advisory in the higher terrain of Western New England could see wind gusts as high as 30 to possibly 40 MPH during the overnight hours into early Sunday Afternoon.

Coastal High Surf at Area Beaches:

A High Surf Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM to 8 PM Sunday for East and South Coastal Massachusetts and South Coastal Rhode Island due to strong winds causing high surf and rip current conditions on area beaches. Given the weather conditions for heavy rainfall, people are less likely to be at beaches but those that are should use extra caution as the high surf and rip currents can affect poor swimmers and pull them into deeper waters resulting in a safety issue for people in the water. Use caution if headed out to the ocean on Sunday.

Severe weather and Thunderstorm Potential:

Concerning thunderstorm potential, this will be contingent on the warm sector position. At this time, the boundary looks to be right over Southern New England in the vicinity of the Mass. Pike. At this time, there is a continued concern that isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could occur in Southeast New England late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon with strong to damaging winds, the attendant lightning risk and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threat. This will be contingent on the level of instability in the atmosphere and where the warm sector position ultimately ends up. Wind shear profiles are sufficient to support isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm through this evening and to the first half of the overnight hours. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 530 AM EDT looking for reports of storm conditions and to guard Amateur Radio Field Day sites across Southern New England by providing latest weather data as required. Below are links to the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

As a reminder, during setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day as well as rain gear given the expected rain and heavy rainfall. The links below features information on Heat Safety as well as Lightning Safety since this year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend coincides with Lightning Safety Awareness Week, Flood Safety Information from the NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week given the potential for heavy rainfall and Severe Weather Safety information from the 2015 severe weather preparedness week given the potential for severe weather during the second half of Amateur Radio Field Day weekend:

NWS Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/flood_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Lightning Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lightning_safety_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/severe_weather_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Web Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/SevereWeatherPreparednessWeek

Amateur Radio Field Day sites are strongly encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio and a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/37

This will be the last coordination message on this storm system and coordinating weather for Amateur Radio Field Day operations as we move into operations mode for the storm and to support weather data for Southern New England Amateur Radio Field Day sites.

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm/Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message #4 – Saturday 6/27/15-Sunday 6/28/15 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Information

June 27, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the fourth in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 13 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..This year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend will feature dry weather into Saturday Afternoon. After that, a windswept rain is expected to develop across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area Saturday Evening through midday Sunday followed by the chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon. This will likely make Amateur Radio Field Day activities wet during the second half of the weekend. Field Day sites are advised to bring rain gear and to prepare for possible windy conditions that could develop as well as for the chance of lightning and thunderstorm activity with the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. A widespread 1-3″ of rainfall is likely Saturday Evening into Sunday with the highest amounts in the range currently expected in Western New England and in any areas where heavy downpours occur over the same area..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties from late tonight through late Sunday Night. The Flood Watches could be expanded to other parts of Southern New England. Urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small stream flooding is the main threat..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts from 2 AM-2 PM Sunday for Southeast winds at 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will be capable of causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and can cause problems for outdoor Field Day sites with portable outdoor antenna systems, tents, canopies etc. These portable antenna systems, tents and canopies will need to be tied down well given the strong winds. Areas outside of the Wind Advisory in Eastern New England and in the higher terrain of Western New England could see wind gusts as high as 40 MPH during the overnight hours into early Sunday Afternoon..
..Depending on the track of the storm, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk and having the potential for strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall is also possible. The greatest risk would be in Eastern New England late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the Saturday Evening into Sunday storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the extent of the Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning storm threat..

If there is additional Amateur Radio Field Day information that you would like to appear in these coordination message, please contact me and it will be added to this section of the Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message. There will likely be a series of Field Day Coordination Messages through Saturday Evening given the potential storm system for Saturday Evening into Sunday.

Dry conditions will continue through Saturday Afternoon with increasing and thickening clouds through the day and high temperatures in the Low 70s. As we get into late Saturday Afternoon through Sunday, conditions will deteriorate as a coastal storm approaches the region. We have broken the various potential weather hazards into sections with this storm:

Heavy Rainfall and Flood Potential:

Rain should commence between 4-8 PM from west to east based on current weather forecast models. Rain will become heavy overnight after midnight with the heaviest rain between 2-11 AM. Rain should end from west to east during the early afternoon. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Western Franklin Counties from late tonight through late Sunday Night. The Flood Watches could be expanded to other parts of Southern New England. Urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small stream flooding is the main threat. By storm’s end, rainfall amounts of 1-3″ are likely region wide but the higher rainfall amounts in the range are likely in Western New England and potentially secondarily in any areas that receive repeated heavy downpours across Eastern New England.

Strong to Damaging Wind Potential:

There is also the potential for strong winds capable of producing isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and could affect portable antenna installations, tents and other outdoor items that could affect Amateur Radio Field Day Operations. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts from 2 AM-2 PM Sunday for Southeast winds at 20-30 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will be capable of causing isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and can cause problems for outdoor Field Day sites with portable antenna systems, tents, canopies etc. These portable antenna systems, tents and canopies will need to be tied down well given the strong winds. Areas outside of the Wind Advisory in Eastern New England and in the higher terrain of Western New England could see wind gusts as high as 40 MPH during the overnight hours into early Sunday Afternoon.

Severe weather and Thunderstorm Potential:

Concerning thunderstorm potential, this will be contingent on the warm sector position. There is a continued concern that isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could occur in Eastern New England late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon with strong to damaging winds, the attendant lightning risk and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. This will be contingent on the level of instability in the atmosphere. Wind shear profiles are sufficient to support isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. The greatest threat for this activity appears to be in Eastern New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the Saturday Evening into Sunday storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the extent of the Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning storm threat. Below are links to the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/flood_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Lightning Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lightning_safety_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/severe_weather_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Web Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/SevereWeatherPreparednessWeek

The next coordination message will be posted by 700 PM Saturday Evening.

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm/Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message #3 – Friday 6/26/15-Sunday 6/28/15 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Information

June 26, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the third in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 13 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..This year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend will feature dry weather into Saturday Afternoon. After that, a windswept rain is expected to develop across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area Saturday Evening through midday Sunday followed by the chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon. This will likely make Amateur Radio Field Day activities wet during the second half of the weekend. Field Day sites are advised to bring rain gear and to prepare for possible windy conditions that could develop as well as for the chance of lightning and thunderstorm activity with the potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. A widespread 1-3″ of rainfall is likely Saturday Evening into Sunday with the highest amounts in the range currently expected in Western New England and in any areas where heavy downpours can train over the same area..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the Saturday Evening into Sunday storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the extent of the Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning storm threat..

Conditions improved as expected with dry and pleasant weather since late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon across the region. These conditions will last through Saturday Afternoon. As we get into late Saturday Morning into Saturday Afternoon, clouds will increase and thicken over the region.

As we get into early Saturday Evening into Sunday, a review of the model runs understanding that we are about 36 hours out from the storm event shows strong correlation on a heavy rainfall event in the Saturday Evening to Sunday timeframe. Rain should commence in the early evening across Western New England and in Eastern New England by around midnight. Rain will become heavy overnight after midnight through Sunday Morning with the rain winding down in the late morning to early afternoon from west to east. Both models bring the heaviest rainfall into Western New England but periods of rain, heavy at times will extend into Eastern New England. By storm’s end, rainfall amounts of 1-3″ are likely region wide but the higher rainfall amounts in the range are likely in Western New England and potentially secondarily in any areas that receive repeated heavy downpours across Eastern New England.

There is also the potential for strong winds capable of producing isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and could affect portable antenna installations during Field Day this weekend. Wind gusts of 45-50 MPH are possible and could prompt the issuance of Wind Advisories. The greatest threat for strong winds will be across Eastern New England and could also occur in higher elevations of Western New England. Wind direction will likely be out of the East and Southeast over the region.

Concerning thunderstorm potential, this will be contingent on the warm sector position. There is growing concern that isolated severe thunderstorms could occur in Eastern New England late Sunday Morning into Sunday Afternoon with strong to damaging winds, the attendant lightning risk and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. This will be monitored closely as we get into Saturday.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the Saturday Evening into Sunday storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the extent of the Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning storm threat. Below is a link to the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

As a reminder, during setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day as well as rain gear given the potential for rain and heavy rainfall. The links below features information on Heat Safety as well as Lightning Safety since this year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend coincides with Lightning Safety Awareness Week, Flood Safety Information from the NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week given the potential for heavy rainfall and Severe Weather Safety information from the 2015 severe weather preparedness week given the potential for severe weather during the second half of Amateur Radio Field Day weekend:

NWS Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/flood_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Lightning Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lightning_safety_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/severe_weather_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Web Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/SevereWeatherPreparednessWeek

The next coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Saturday Morning.

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm/Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message #2 – Friday 6/26/15-Sunday 6/28/15 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Information

June 26, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the second in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 13 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..This year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend will feature some morning showers Friday Morning followed by clearing Friday Afternoon and Evening and dry weather into Saturday Afternoon. After that, a windswept rain is expected to develop across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area Saturday Evening through Sunday. This will likely make Amateur Radio Field Day activities wet during the second half of the weekend. Field Day sites are advised to bring rain gear and to prepare for possible windy conditions that could develop as well as for the chance of lightning in any embedded thunderstorm activity that might occur. A widespread 1-3″ of rainfall is likely Saturday Evening into Sunday with the highest amounts in the range currently expected in Western New England though that could change as we get closer to the storm event..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the Saturday Evening into Sunday storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the extent of the Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning storm threat..

At 700 AM Friday Morning, Doppler Radar showed an area of showers across Northern Massachusetts and a second area of light showers in South Coastal Massachusetts. This will move through the area Friday Morning with gradual improvement Friday Afternoon lasting into Saturday Afternoon where during this time, the weather will feature dry and cool conditions. High temperatures will be in the low 70s with low temperatures in the 50s with some slightly cooler lows in rural areas. As we get into late Saturday Morning into Saturday Afternoon, clouds will increase and thicken over the region.

As we get into Saturday Evening into Sunday, a review of the model runs understanding that we are about 36-48 hours out from the storm event shows strong correlation on a heavy rainfall event in the Saturday Evening to Sunday timeframe. Some models have the start time of rainfall as early as late Saturday Afternoon or early evening while other model runs have the rain starting late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning in the 10 PM-2 AM timeframe. It is possible that western New England could start having rain late Saturday Afternoon/Evening and Eastern New England does not see the rainfall until the 10 PM-2 AM timeframe. The timing of the onset of rain will be adjusted as we get closer to the storm event.

Heavier rainfall is expected by Sunday Morning and depicted similarly across the various model runs. Both models bring the heaviest rainfall into Western New England but periods of rain, heavy at times will extend into Eastern New England. By storm’s end, rainfall amounts of 1-3″ are likely region wide but the higher rainfall amounts in the range are likely in Western New England and potentially secondarily along the Northeast Massachusetts area bordering New Hampshire possibly extending into the rest of Eastern Massachusetts and parts of Rhode Island. These 2 axis’ of heaviest rainfall could shift in future forecasts and will be monitored closely.

There is also the potential for strong winds capable of producing isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and could affect portable antenna installations during Field Day this weekend. Wind gusts of 45-50 MPH are possible and could prompt the issuance of Wind Advisories for a portion of the area or much of the coverage area. It is still a bit early to get into details on the wind threat but the latest Forecast Discussion indicates a potential wind risk.

Concerning thunderstorm potential, this will be contingent on the warm sector position and whether conditions remain quite cool as the storm hits with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s but the strength of the system could mean embedded thunder and lightning in the heavy rain area and a chance for a few thunderstorms during the heavy rainfall. These details will be worked out as we get closer to the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the Saturday Evening into Sunday storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the extent of the Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning storm threat. Below is a link to the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

As a reminder, during setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day as well as rain gear given the potential for rain and heavy rainfall. The links below features information on Heat Safety though its noted conditions will be cooler than normal with temperatures in the low 70s Friday and Saturday and even cooler during the storm system Saturday Night into Sunday as well as Lightning Safety since this year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend coincides with Lightning Safety Awareness Week and Flood Safety Information from the NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week given the potential for heavy rainfall during the second half of Amateur Radio Field Day weekend:

NWS Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/flood_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Lightning Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lightning_safety_awareness_2015.txt

Amateur Radio Field Day sites are encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio and a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/37

The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Friday Evening.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm/Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message #1 – Friday 6/26/15-Sunday 6/28/15 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend Weather Information

June 25, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the first in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 13 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..This year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend will feature dry weather conditions Friday into Saturday Afternoon. After that, a windswept rain is expected to develop across much of the NWS Taunton coverage area Saturday Evening through Sunday. This will likely make Amateur Radio Field Day activities wet during the second half of the weekend. Field Day sites are advised to bring rain gear and to prepare for possible windy conditions that could develop as well as for the chance of lightning in any embedded thunderstorm activity that might occur. A widespread 1-3″ of rainfall is likely Saturday Evening into Sunday with the highest amounts currently expected in Western New England though that could change as we get closer to the storm event..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the Saturday Evening into Sunday storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the extent of the Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning storm threat..

Friday into Saturday Afternoon will feature largely dry and cool conditions. There could be some scattered showers Friday Morning particularly in South Coastal areas but conditions will improve through the day Friday and then be dry through Saturday Afternoon. High temperatures will be in the low 70s with low temperatures in the 50s with some slightly cooler lows in rural areas. As we get into late Saturday Morning into Saturday Afternoon, clouds will increase and thicken over the region.

As we get into Saturday Evening into Sunday, a review of the model runs understanding that we are 48-72 hours out from the storm event shows strong correlation on a heavy rainfall event in the Saturday Evening to Sunday timeframe. Some models have the start time of rainfall as early as late Saturday Afternoon or early evening while other model runs have the rain starting late Saturday Night or early Sunday Morning in the 10 PM-2 AM timeframe. Heavier rainfall is expected by Sunday Morning and depicted similarly across the various model runs. Both models bring the heaviest rainfall into Western New England but periods of rain, heavy at times will extend into Eastern New England. By storm’s end, rainfall amounts of 1-3″ are likely region wide but the higher rainfall amounts in the range are likely in Western New England and potentially secondarily along the Northeast Massachusetts area bordering New Hampshire. Winds may also be a concern with this storm system but it is a bit premature to get into the details on the winds and how strong they will be. Concerning thunderstorm potential, conditions will actually be quite cool as the storm hits with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s but the strength of the system could mean embedded thunder and lightning in the heavy rain area and a chance for a few thunderstorms later on Sunday Afternoon depending on the evolution of the storm system. These details will be worked out as we get closer to the storm event. In addition, the axis of heaviest rainfall could shift in future forecasts and will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor the Saturday Evening into Sunday storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible depending on the extent of the Saturday Evening to Sunday Morning storm threat. Below is a link to the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

As a reminder, during setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day as well as rain gear given the potential for rain and heavy rainfall. The links below features information on Heat Safety though its noted conditions will be cooler than normal with temperatures in the low 70s Friday and Saturday and even cooler during the storm system Saturday Night into Sunday as well as Lightning Safety since this year’s Amateur Radio Field Day weekend coincides with Lightning Safety Awareness Week and Flood Safety Information from the NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week given the potential for heavy rainfall during the second half of Amateur Radio Field Day weekend:

NWS Heat Safety Rules:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

NWS Taunton Flood Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/flood_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Lightning Safety Awareness Week Information:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lightning_safety_awareness_2015.txt

The next coordination message will be posted by 930 AM Friday Morning.

Respectfully Submitted,

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday June 23rd, 2015 Severe Weather Event

June 25, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..NWS Taunton Survey Team determined that an EF-0 Tornado touched down in Wrentham, MA in the town common area. Straightline wind damage causing power outages in the Falmouth, Hyannis, Barnstable, Centerville, Mass area with wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH from West Island – Fairhaven into the Falmouth, Hyannis, Mass area from late Tuesday Evening severe thunderstorms. A late report from a sailboat in Quissett Harbor Woods Hole measured wind gusts of 70 Knots during the severe thunderstorm..
..Any additional photos, video and damage from the Tuesday 6/23/15 severe weather event can be sent as reply to this message or sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for their photo or video. The photo album on the WX1BOX Facebook page will be updated with new pictures received over the next day or two. This will likely be the last post severe weather coordination message on the Tuesday 6/23/15 severe weather event. Below is the latest NWS Taunton Local Storm Reports, NWS Taunton Public Information Statement Regarding the EF-0 Wrentham Tornado, Amateur Radio log from this storm event and the WX1BOX Facebook Album..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/lsr_6_23_15.txt

NWS Taunton Public Info Statement:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/pns_6_24_15_wrentham_tor_6_23_15.txt

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log During the Storm Event:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_6_23_15.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1009200565780628.1073741864.216287391738620&type=3

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday June 23rd, 2015 Severe Weather Event

June 24, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..NWS Taunton Survey Team will investigate damage in the Blackstone, Wrentham, Franklin, MA area as well as Woonsocket, RI to determine if the pockets of damage were tornadic or from straight line winds. Straightline wind damage causing power outages in the Falmouth, Hyannis, Barnstable, Centerville, Mass area with wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH from West Island – Fairhaven into the Falmouth, Hyannis, Mass area from late Tuesday Evening severe thunderstorms..
..Any additional photos and video from yesterday or damage from the Tuesday 6/23/15 severe weather event can be sent as reply to this message or sent to pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for their photo or video. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, NWS Taunton Public Information Statement Regarding the Survey, Amateur Radio log from this storm event and the WX1BOX Facebook Album..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Info Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log During the Storm Event:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_6_23_15.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Album:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.1009200565780628.1073741864.216287391738620&type=3

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday June 23rd 2015 Severe Weather Potential

June 23, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Potential significant severe weather outbreak with scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms remains likely across much of Southern New England particularly north and west of a Boston to Providence line but potentially affecting an area as far south and east as the Cape Cod Canal. Damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats but an isolated tornado or two remains possible. Evolution of severe weather potential still has some uncertainty but confidence has increased since Monday Evening..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the enhanced risk area for severe weather. The enhanced risk area now covers Central and Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, most of Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Surrounding the enhanced risk of severe weather, there is a slight risk for severe weather for extreme Southeast Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal and a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this assessment..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 12 PM for this potentially significant severe weather event. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the situation and seek advice from local leadership. Pictures and videos will be very helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence and can be sent as a reply to this email, via pics@nsradio.org or via the Facebook, Twitter feeds under WX1BOX. Severe Weather Safety Rules should be reviewed ahead of any severe weather activity..

At 650 AM, Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over Southern New England with some scattered clouds. Doppler Radar is showing showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rain over Northeastern New York and into Vermont while across South Central New York through Northern Pennsylvania, a complex of severe thunderstorms is moving straight east. The showers and embedded thunderstorms in Northeast New York and Vermont represent the warm front that is moving east-northeast. The activity across South-Central New York through Northern Pennsylvania is expected to reach Southern New England by around Noon if it continues to hold together and would likely constitute the start of the severe weather event. Based on the satellite imagery and latest model runs, there should be sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of this activity to allow for a significant severe weather outbreak. It is also noted that given favorable wind shear profiles and other parameters, provided temperatures can reach the 80s, that will be more than sufficient for a significant severe weather outbreak to occur. Main threats will be damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding but the secondary threat for an isolated tornado or two remains possible. The threat timeframe appears to be slightly earlier. The threat timeframe now appears to be from Noon-8 PM though could extend to 9 or 10 PM in eastern areas. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the enhanced risk area for severe weather. The enhanced risk area now covers Central and Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts, most of Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Surrounding the enhanced risk of severe weather, there is a slight risk for severe weather for extreme Southeast Connecticut, the remainder of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts north and west of the Cape Cod Canal and a marginal risk for severe weather for Cape Cod and the Islands. NWS Taunton is in agreement with this assessment.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 12 PM for this potentially significant severe weather event. ARES/RACES Groups should closely monitor the situation and seek advice from local leadership. Severe Weather Safety Rules should be reviewed ahead of any severe weather activity. Pictures and videos will be very helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence and can be sent as a reply to this email, via pics@nsradio.org or via the Facebook, Twitter feeds under WX1BOX. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement on Severe Weather Potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Information to review severe weather safety rules:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Graphics:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statements – Severe Weather Preparedness Week:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/severe_weather_awareness_2015.txt

NWS Taunton Severe Weather Preparedness Week Web Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/SevereWeatherPreparednessWeek

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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