Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #3

October 1, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The Wednesday Storm System dumps 2-5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts across much of Southern New England with pockets of coastal flooding, river/stream/urban flooding and pockets of wind damage up to 50 MPH in portions of Southern New England particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Thursday will bring wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and a round of minor coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from Noon-4 PM EDT for East Coastal Massachusetts Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Afternoon high tide..
..Friday will bring another storm system with strong winds and heavy rainfall centered across Southeast New England followed by a lull on Saturday though strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin and potential impact to the US East Coast from North Carolina northward. It remains too early to get into specifics regarding Joaquin but interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants..

The Wednesday storm system packed a fairly potent punch for Southern New England. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5″ were common with isolated higher amounts across Southern New England. Pockets of coastal flooding were reported along parts of South Coastal Massachusetts with river, stream and urban flooding reports as well. Wind gusts were as high as 50 MPH across portions of Southern New England, particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts. Below is the latest NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall and wind measurements and the storm log kept during the SKYWARN Self-Activation for Wednesday’s storm:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

SKYWARN Self-Activation Storm Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_9_30_15.txt

Thursday will bring a strong east-northeast flow of wind with wind gusts up to 40 MPH likely. At this time, winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria. The strong winds out of the east-northeast and the high astronomical tide will bring the risk of coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands with a Coastal Flood Advisory from Noon-4 PM EDT Thursday. Reports of minor coastal flooding would be helpful during the Thursday Afternoon high tide cycle.

On Friday, another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. Future model runs will bring this into more focus. Another round of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide. On Saturday, there will be a lull in the rainfall as well as winds in the interior but strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin has now intensified into a major hurricane and will be moving towards the Bahamas within 24 hours. Joaquin is expected to continue to intensify over the next day or two and then hold similar intensity over the next few days thereafter. The model spread remains divergent with the reliable European model keeping it well over open waters but much of the rest of the model consensus implying a US East Coast hurricane threat. A synoptic scale mission launched today with data ingested into the next model suites should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Thursday. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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