Storm and Hurricane Joaquin Coordination Message #7

October 3, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Storm system for Friday produced heavy rainfall and strong winds in Southeast New England with minor coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Strong Winds and another round of minor coastal flooding is likely for East Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Saturday Afternoon High Tide. Southern New England is now expected to see little to no direct impacts from Hurricane Joaquin though monitoring will continue through early afternoon Saturday..
..A Wind Advisory in effect through 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East Coastal Massachusetts may reach around 40 MPH through midday Saturday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 3-6 PM EDT Saturday Afternoon/Evening for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Late Afternoon to early Evening high tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds and minor coastal flood threat for Saturday. After Saturday, no further SKYWARN Activation’s of any kind appear to be needed as Hurricane Joaquin is currently expected to stay offshore..

The Friday storm system brought 1-3″ of rainfall to Southeast Coastal New England and wind gusts in the 45-50 MPH range across South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands. Strong winds will continue through midday to mid-afternoon Saturday across Southeastern New England. A Wind Advisory in effect through 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East Coastal Massachusetts may reach around 40 MPH through midday Saturday.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 3-6 PM EDT for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Late Afternoon to Early Evening high tide. The level of minor coastal flooding will be similar or slightly more than what was experienced on Friday.

After several additional model runs through the day Friday, the spread in model guidance, while still there, is closer to the norm for any tropical system and the track of Hurricane Joaquin appears more certain and will most likely be out to sea south and east of Southern New England. This will mean little to no impact for Southern New England other than rip currents and swells at the coast. Monitoring of model runs through mid-afternoon Saturday will occur but the recent model trends has been quite solid over the course of Friday leading to higher confidence that the track guidance well offshore of New England will be the most likely path. Nonetheless, this will be monitored through mid-afternoon Saturday and beyond as needed. This will be the last coordination message on Hurricane Joaquin barring a significant change to the track meaning more impact to any part of Southern New England.

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net stood down operations during the afternoon and evening. The damage on Rum Cay and San Salvador Bahamas is very significant as the hurricane force conditions lasted close to 1-1.5 days causing very significant damage in this area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds and minor coastal flood threat for Saturday. After Saturday, no further SKYWARN Activation’s of any kind appear to be needed as Hurricane Joaquin is currently expected to stay offshore. This will likely be the last coordination message on Saturday’s expected strong winds and minor coastal flooding and Hurricane Joaquin unless something changes of significance with the Saturday weather or the track of Hurricane Joaquin. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Natipnal Hurricane Center – Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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