Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Saturday Night 4/2/16-Sunday 4/3/16 Damaging Wind and Snow Squall/Thundersnow Potential
Hello to all..
..Damaging Winds Likely Across Southern New England and especially Southern Parts of Southern New England Sunday Morning through mid-late afternoon. In addition, heavy snow squalls are likely in interior Southern New England and cannot rule out heavier snowfall in localized areas if snowfall is intense enough in a short period of time or persists in localized areas..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area. Sustained winds of 20-35 MPH with gusts in the 50-65 MPH range are likely. The highest sustained wind speeds and highest wind gusts are expected in southern parts of Southern New England. This will bring scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages to the region most numerous in southern parts of Southern New England. Regarding hurricane force wind gust potential, it is possible that these wind gusts may either clip South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island through Cape Cod and the Islands or remain just offshore of the coast. This will continue to bear close watching and is within the error of the model even at this short time range because these winds are that close to the coastline..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 3-11 AM Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and all of Massachusetts from North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties north and west in Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and isolated higher amounts of 5-6″ possible in any persistent heavy snow squall or thundersnow bands with near whiteout conditions possible. Some high-res models are calling for even higher snow amounts but the current snow amounts are the highest confidence forecast currently. This will bear close monitoring through this quick hitting storm event..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 530 AM lasting through mid-late afternoon for wind damage and wind measurement reports, snowfall amounts and thundersnow/whiteout condition reports. Any pictures of storm damage, snowfall etc. can be sent via our Facebook/Twitter social media feeds, as a reply to this email address or to pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the spotter for the photos and sent to media and various emergency management agencies unless otherwise noted..
An unusually strong and dynamic cold front and storm system for early April will move through the region Sunday Morning. The headlines reflect the latest thinking in terms of damaging wind potential and the potential for a quick hitting accumulating snow for much of interior Southern New England and the possibility of heavier snow in bands across parts of interior Southern New England. Some general points of information on confidence levels and possible changes to the current scenario:
1.) Regarding the wind potential, there is high confidence in sustained winds of 20-35 MPH and wind gusts in the 50-65 MPH range with the highest wind gusts over the southern parts of Southern New England. This will result in scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages. As noted in earlier forecasts and discussions, there is some concern over the possibility of hurricane force wind gusts over parts of southeast New England particularly at the coast. Current model runs keep the hurricane force gusts just offshore but its so close to the coast and in the error of the models even at this short time range where that will bear watching. Highest confidence right now of wind gusts along Southeast New England reaching the 60-65 MPH range. In northern and western areas, while the most likely wind gusts to be seen are in the 50-55 MPH range, it is possible for some strong wind gusts to hit 60 MPH resulting in the upgrade to a High Wind Warning.
2.) Regarding the snowfall potential, the current forecast reflects the best blend of models regarding snowfall totals. It is noted that some high resolution models have even higher snowfall totals than the current forecast. This will be dependent on how heavy the snow can fall in a relatively short duration of time, how quick can it accumulate due to relatively warm ground conditions and if there are localized areas where the heaviest snow bands are very persistent resulting in higher snow amounts. This will be watched through the storm event. Highest confidence right now in a widespread 1-4″ snowfall in the Winter Weather Advisory area with a band or a few bands of possibly heavier snow in the 4-6″ range.
3.) Near whiteout conditions with snow squalls and potential for thundersnow as the storm moves swiftly through the region. This will be monitored to see if it occurs persistently in any one area for several hours.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 530 AM lasting through mid-late afternoon for wind damage and wind measurement reports, snowfall amounts and thundersnow/whiteout condition reports. Any pictures of storm damage, snowfall etc. can be sent via our Facebook/Twitter social media feeds, as a reply to this email address or to pics@nsradio.org. Credit will be given to the spotter for the photos and sent to media and various emergency management agencies unless otherwise noted. This will be the last coordination message on this system as we move into operations mode for Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement, Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:
NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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