Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/16/16 – Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out and is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Western New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..Timeframe could be either two rounds with the first round between 7 AM-1 PM followed by a break and then a second round between 3-10 PM or all the activity could be centered after Noon Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as 7 AM with any morning convection with SKYWARN Self-Activation likely. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for the afternoon and evening severe weather potential..
Tuesday has the potential to be an active severe weather day in Southern New England. A warm front will push its way through Southern New England in the morning and early afternoon followed by a pre-frontal trough and cold front later Tuesday and Tuesday Night. The warm front could bring a round of thunderstorms with frequent lightning and torrential rain and an isolated risk for strong to damaging winds and possibly even an isolated tornado and then more activity could occur after the warm front passes behind the pre-frontal trough and cold front. This activity could occur in the 7 AM-1 PM timeframe associated with the warm front followed by a brief break with more activity in the 3-10 PM timeframe or it could be a situation where activity will start around midday and last through early to mid evening. There will be strong wind shear for storms on Tuesday and instability levels despite potential cloud cover may also be sufficient given the level of wind shear and the position of the warm front to our region. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Western New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as 7 AM with any morning convection with SKYWARN Self-Activation likely. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for the afternoon and evening severe weather potential. The next coordination message will be posted by 800 AM Tuesday and may be a shortened coordination message depending on how the severe weather potential for Tuesday Morning evolves. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160815_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Tuesday across much of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out and is a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Western New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..Timeframe could be either two rounds with the first round between 7 AM-1 PM followed by a break and then a second round between 3-10 PM or all the activity could be centered after Noon Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as 7 AM with any morning convection with SKYWARN Self-Activation likely. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for the afternoon and evening severe weather potential..
Tuesday has the potential to be an active severe weather day in Southern New England. A warm front will push its way through Southern New England in the morning and early afternoon followed by a pre-frontal trough and cold front later Tuesday and Tuesday Night. The warm front could bring a round of thunderstorms with frequent lightning and torrential rain and an isolated risk for strong to damaging winds and possibly even an isolated tornado and then more activity could occur after the warm front passes behind the pre-frontal trough and cold front. This activity could occur in the 7 AM-1 PM timeframe associated with the warm front followed by a brief break with more activity in the 3-10 PM timeframe or it could be a situation where activity will start around midday and last through early to mid evening. There will be strong wind shear for storms on Tuesday and instability levels despite potential cloud cover may also be sufficient given the level of wind shear and the position of the warm front to our region. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Western New England in a Slight Risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible as early as 7 AM with any morning convection with SKYWARN Self-Activation likely. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely for the afternoon and evening severe weather potential. The next coordination message will be posted by 800 AM Tuesday and may be a shortened coordination message depending on how the severe weather potential for Tuesday Morning evolves. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160815_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box