Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 6/19/17 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly flash flooding are the primary threats. Hail and perhaps even an isolated tornado are secondary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather for Monday..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County of Northern Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential..
Warm and humid air will be entrenched across Southern New England as we head into the day on Monday. A cold front will approach Southern New England Monday Afternoon and move through the region in the late afternoon Monday through Monday Night. Strong wind shear profiles with expected heating and destabilization are expecting to offset a couple other unfavorable parameters for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. As the front and any strong to severe thunderstorms make there way eastward it will be into the later afternoon and evening and that will mean weakening of thunderstorms as they move into Eastern New England. The headlines of the coordination message depict the potential for Monday. Key factors for the severe weather and flash flood potential include:
1.) Sunshine for expected heating and destabilization occurs as expected.
2.) Timing of the cold front is near the favorable timeframe for peak heating.
3.) The forcing of the cold front, high dewpoints and favorably strong wind shear offset other unfavorable parameters for severe weather.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM tonight regarding the severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly flash flooding are the primary threats. Hail and perhaps even an isolated tornado are secondary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather for Monday..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County of Northern Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential..
Warm and humid air will be entrenched across Southern New England as we head into the day on Monday. A cold front will approach Southern New England Monday Afternoon and move through the region in the late afternoon Monday through Monday Night. Strong wind shear profiles with expected heating and destabilization are expecting to offset a couple other unfavorable parameters for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. As the front and any strong to severe thunderstorms make there way eastward it will be into the later afternoon and evening and that will mean weakening of thunderstorms as they move into Eastern New England. The headlines of the coordination message depict the potential for Monday. Key factors for the severe weather and flash flood potential include:
1.) Sunshine for expected heating and destabilization occurs as expected.
2.) Timing of the cold front is near the favorable timeframe for peak heating.
3.) The forcing of the cold front, high dewpoints and favorably strong wind shear offset other unfavorable parameters for severe weather.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM tonight regarding the severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box