Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 6/19/17 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly flash flooding are the primary threats. Hail and perhaps even an isolated brief tornado are secondary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather for Monday. The timeframe for severe weather and flash flood potential is between 2-11 PM EDT Monday..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County of Northern Connecticut and is now expanded to include Worcester and Northern Middlesex County of Massachusetts and Tolland County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential..
..Please note that the scheduled Doppler Radar major upgrade has been delayed to start on Tuesday June 20th lasting through Friday June 23rd given the severe weather potential for Monday June 19th..
Not much change to the earlier thinking on severe weather and flash flooding potential and the key factors that can affect that potential. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Tolland County Connecticut. It is noted as sent out in a separate message that the NWS Taunton Doppler Radar major upgrade has been delayed to start on Tuesday June 20th. The text of that separate message is listed below:
The NWS Taunton Major Doppler Radar Upgrade previously announced to start on Monday 6/19/17 will be delayed to Tuesday 6/20/17 due to the severe weather and flash flooding potential in western parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area for Monday 6/19/17. This means the upgrade will cover approximately four days from Tuesday 6/20/17 through Friday 6/23/17. The details can be seen at the following link to the Public Information Statement:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201706181431-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX
The remainder of the text below is unchanged except to note that the next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning.
Warm and humid air will be entrenched across Southern New England as we head into the day on Monday. A cold front will approach Southern New England Monday Afternoon and move through the region in the late afternoon Monday through Monday Night. Strong wind shear profiles with expected heating and destabilization are expecting to offset a couple other unfavorable parameters for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. As the front and any strong to severe thunderstorms make there way eastward it will be into the later afternoon and evening and that will mean weakening of thunderstorms as they move into Eastern New England. The headlines of the coordination message depict the potential for Monday. Key factors for the severe weather and flash flood potential include:
1.) Sunshine for expected heating and destabilization occurs as expected.
2.) Timing of the cold front is near the favorable timeframe for peak heating.
3.) The forcing of the cold front, high dewpoints and favorably strong wind shear offset other unfavorable parameters for severe weather.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning regarding the severe weather and flash flooding potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170618_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely over Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly flash flooding are the primary threats. Hail and perhaps even an isolated brief tornado are secondary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut in a slight to enhanced risk of severe weather for Monday. The timeframe for severe weather and flash flood potential is between 2-11 PM EDT Monday..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night for Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Western Massachusetts and Hartford County of Northern Connecticut and is now expanded to include Worcester and Northern Middlesex County of Massachusetts and Tolland County Connecticut..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential..
..Please note that the scheduled Doppler Radar major upgrade has been delayed to start on Tuesday June 20th lasting through Friday June 23rd given the severe weather potential for Monday June 19th..
Not much change to the earlier thinking on severe weather and flash flooding potential and the key factors that can affect that potential. The Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Tolland County Connecticut. It is noted as sent out in a separate message that the NWS Taunton Doppler Radar major upgrade has been delayed to start on Tuesday June 20th. The text of that separate message is listed below:
The NWS Taunton Major Doppler Radar Upgrade previously announced to start on Monday 6/19/17 will be delayed to Tuesday 6/20/17 due to the severe weather and flash flooding potential in western parts of the NWS Taunton coverage area for Monday 6/19/17. This means the upgrade will cover approximately four days from Tuesday 6/20/17 through Friday 6/23/17. The details can be seen at the following link to the Public Information Statement:
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201706181431-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX
The remainder of the text below is unchanged except to note that the next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning.
Warm and humid air will be entrenched across Southern New England as we head into the day on Monday. A cold front will approach Southern New England Monday Afternoon and move through the region in the late afternoon Monday through Monday Night. Strong wind shear profiles with expected heating and destabilization are expecting to offset a couple other unfavorable parameters for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. As the front and any strong to severe thunderstorms make there way eastward it will be into the later afternoon and evening and that will mean weakening of thunderstorms as they move into Eastern New England. The headlines of the coordination message depict the potential for Monday. Key factors for the severe weather and flash flood potential include:
1.) Sunshine for expected heating and destabilization occurs as expected.
2.) Timing of the cold front is near the favorable timeframe for peak heating.
3.) The forcing of the cold front, high dewpoints and favorably strong wind shear offset other unfavorable parameters for severe weather.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1 PM EDT Monday for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Monday Morning regarding the severe weather and flash flooding potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170618_1730.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box