September 2018

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Friday 9/28/18 Heavy Rainfall/Flood Potential

September 28, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Periods of Heavy Rainfall will affect the area Friday Morning through Friday mid-afternoon and given the recent wet conditions, there is an increased threat for flooding to flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and some small rivers and streams. Heaviest Rainfall expected over Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts..

..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Northern Connecticut, Hampden County Massachusetts, Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island except for the islands through this Friday afternoon. A widespread 0.5-1.5″ of rainfall is expected but bands of 1.5-3.0″ of rain are likely particularly in Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts and this could lead to flooding/flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas as well as some small rivers and streams..

..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the heavy rainfall/flood potential for today. This will be the only coordination message on today’s storm event. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:

https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – 9/26/18 – Severe Weather Potential

September 26, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..After the flash flooding in portions of Southern New England, particularly in Southern and Eastern Connecticut, warm and humid conditions exist over Southern New England with the warm front having pushed through, this will set the stage for the potential for severe weather late this Wednesday afternoon and evening in Southern New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued to place much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal New England which is in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly river and stream and flash flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. An Isolated tornado is a secondary threat in Western New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 400 PM Wednesday Afternoon to monitor the severe weather potential..

Flash flooding and significant rainfall amounts occurred in portions of Southern New England with amounts over 4.5″ in scattered locations. Information on the heavy rainfall and flooding/flash flooding can be seen at the following links:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809261305.nous41.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260846.nous41.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260048.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260134.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260208.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Team Log:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/reports_9_25_18-1.txt

The region has now moved into the warm sector with warm and humid conditions over the region. A strong cold front will move through Southern New England this evening. While the timing is a bit later than peak heating, there are very strong winds aloft and strong lifting and triggering with the cold front. This will set the stage for the potential of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to swing through Southern New England with interior Southern New England as the main threat area particularly from Worcester County Massachusetts and west and across Northern Connecticut. Areas to the east will have the potential for severe weather as well but it will be less than out west due to slightly weaker wind fields and the timing of the cold front with lower instability levels.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 400 PM to monitor the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operation mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Heavy Rainfall Potential – Tuesday 9/25/18 & Wednesday 9/26/18 Severe Weather Potential

September 25, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Soaking heavy rainfall for Tuesday through Tuesday Night with the potential for some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if some areas receive 3″ or more of rainfall..

..As a warm front passes through the area that causes the soaking rainfall Tuesday, the potential exists for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into daybreak Wednesday with the potential for another round of severe weather particularly in interior Southern New England late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal New England which is in a marginal risk for severe weather..

..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe..

A soaking rainfall with a storm system and warm front is on track to occur across Southern New England with a widespread 1-3″ of rainfall. Some models are indicating that some interior locations of Southern New England could see amounts greater than 3″. There could be two areas for this higher rainfall, one across Western Massachusetts in the higher terrain and the second area across portions of Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Central and Northeast Massachusetts. This will bear watching as this could lead to some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if those totals are realized. As the warm front and soaking rainfall moves through the region and Southern New England gets into the warm sector, this will set the stage for potentially 2 rounds of severe weather. The first round of severe weather would be around South Coastal New England during the overnight hours Tuesday Night through daybreak Wednesday and then a second round with a cold front that will swing through Southern New England late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The wind fields ahead of the cold front will be quite strong and the key factors will be the timing of the cold front and the amount of instability that can develop ahead of the cold front with the favorably strong wind fields.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180925_0600.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/25/18 Heavy Rainfall Potential/Wednesday 9/26/18 Severe Weather Potential

September 24, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Soaking heavy rainfall for Tuesday through Tuesday Night with the potential for some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if some areas receive 3″ or more of rainfall..

..As a warm front passes through the area that causes the soaking rainfall Tuesday, the potential exists for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms in South Coastal New England Wednesday Morning with the potential for another round of severe weather particularly in interior Southern New England late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal New England which is in a marginal risk for severe weather..

A soaking rainfall with a storm system and warm front will occur across Southern New England with a widespread 1-3″ of rainfall. Some models are indicating that some interior locations of Southern New England could see amounts greater than 3″. This will bear watching as this could lead to some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if those totals are realized. As the warm front and soaking rainfall moves through the region and Southern New England gets into the warm sector, this will set the stage for potentially 2 rounds of severe weather. The first round of severe weather would be around South Coastal New England during the overnight hours Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning and then a second round with a cold front that will swing through Southern New England. Future model runs will better define the level of instability and destabilization for strong to severe thunderstorm development on Wednesday but it is notable that SPC has much of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather 3 days ahead of time which is a relatively rare occurrence.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day3otlk_20180924_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Remnants of Florence Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 9/18/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

September 18, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Remnants of Florence will bring the potential of heavy rain and urban, poor drainage and small stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England and the threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with the potential of strong to damaging winds or an isolated tornado..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 5 AM Tuesday through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts except for the South Coast. The potential exists for a widespread 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts and a band of 4-6″ of rain could potentially setup somewhere in the coverage area within the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in the morning..

The remnants of Florence are finally moving away from the Carolinas and will make a pass through Southern New England late tonight through Tuesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the potential. Not much change to the current forecast but will be monitoring a bit more closely any thunderstorms and severe weather potential given what occurred in Virginia Monday Afternoon into early evening. Again, we do not expect the impacts of Florence to be anywhere near what has been seen in North and South Carolina. That said, with recent heavy rainfall and this new potential for heavy rainfall, there will be some potential impacts to the region and we have to remain aware of the low to very low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with the potential for strong to damaging winds or an isolated small tornado. Key items on this flood and severe weather potential:

1.) The position of the heaviest rainfall is still not totally known and will be refined in future forecasts.
2.) The threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm with a damaging wind or small tornado risk will be contingent on the amount of instability that can develop.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning and ongoing weather early Tuesday Morning will determine whether or not it will be a full message or a shortened coordination message. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Remnants of Florence Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/18/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

September 17, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

…Remnants of Florence will bring the potential of heavy rain and urban, poor drainage and small stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England and the threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with the potential of strong to damaging winds or an isolated tornado..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Late Tonight through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts except for the South Coast. The potential exists for a widespread 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts and a band of 4-6″ of rain could potentially setup somewhere in the coverage area within the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages..

The remnants of Florence are finally moving away from the Carolinas and will make a pass through Southern New England late tonight through Tuesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the potential. We do not expect the impacts of Florence to be anywhere near what has been seen in North and South Carolina. That said, with recent heavy rainfall and this new potential for heavy rainfall, there will be some potential impacts to the region and we have to also be aware of the very low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with the potential for strong to damaging winds or an isolated small tornado. Key items on this flood and severe weather potential:

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

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Special Announcement: Hurricane Florence Amateur Radio Hurricane Net Activation Plans

September 13, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Special Announcement for Amateur Radio Hurricane Net Activation Plans for Hurricane Florence and impacts to North and South Carolina possibly extending into Virginia..

..Amateur Radio Operators in Massachusetts will be providing support to the VoIP Hurricane Net Thursday Morning into the weekend as necessary..

..SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators in Southern New England who may have contact with family, friends, other Amateur Radio Operators or SKYWARN spotters in the affected area of hurricane Florence are encouraged to forward any reports, pictures and videos via the Amateur Radio hurricane nets, via the WX1BOX or voipwxnet Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org. Also, any relayed public safety reports, pictures, videos from online feeds, social media or from public safety people in the affected area is also encouraged. Credit will be given to the individual with the reports and pictures and the person within our spotter network that relayed this information..

..Links below provide information on various net activations for Hurricane Florence..

Hurricane Watch Net Activation Plans:
http://www.hwn.org/policies/activationplans.html

VoIP Hurricane Net Activation Plans:

UPDATE: VoIP Hurricane Net Activation Plans – Hurricane Florence – Start Time: 9/13/18 at 900 AM EDT/1300 UTC

ARRL Web Page on hurricane response:

http://www.arrl.org/2018-Hurricanes

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 9/6/18 Severe Weather Potential

September 6, 2018 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A Cold front will bring a threat of severe weather and an end to the latest round of heat and humidity today making for a nice seasonable weekend. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM Thursday Morning through 7 PM Thursday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely today across much of Southern New England with a slightly higher threat area along and south of the Mass Pike to the coastal areas today. Strong to Damaging Winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather today. The main threat timeframe is from 2-10 PM today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1-130 PM today for this severe weather potential..

One last day of heat and humidity ahead of a cold front will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England as a cold front swings through the region bringing more seasonable weather for this weekend. There will be sufficient heating and destabilization with marginally sufficient wind shear to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. The extent of coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms is a bit uncertain given the strongest wind shear is somewhat disconnected from the higher instability areas and other marginal factors associated with the cold front but there looks to be enough parameters in place for at least isolated to scattered coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. If the stronger wind shear becomes closer to the higher levels of instability in place in Southern New England and other severe weather parameters improve, that could set the stage for a more potent severe weather episode but current thinking is for more isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 1-130 PM today for this severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message on this severe weather potential as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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