Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Heavy Rainfall Potential – Tuesday 9/25/18 & Wednesday 9/26/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Soaking heavy rainfall for Tuesday through Tuesday Night with the potential for some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if some areas receive 3″ or more of rainfall..

..As a warm front passes through the area that causes the soaking rainfall Tuesday, the potential exists for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into daybreak Wednesday with the potential for another round of severe weather particularly in interior Southern New England late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal New England which is in a marginal risk for severe weather..

..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe..

A soaking rainfall with a storm system and warm front is on track to occur across Southern New England with a widespread 1-3″ of rainfall. Some models are indicating that some interior locations of Southern New England could see amounts greater than 3″. There could be two areas for this higher rainfall, one across Western Massachusetts in the higher terrain and the second area across portions of Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Central and Northeast Massachusetts. This will bear watching as this could lead to some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if those totals are realized. As the warm front and soaking rainfall moves through the region and Southern New England gets into the warm sector, this will set the stage for potentially 2 rounds of severe weather. The first round of severe weather would be around South Coastal New England during the overnight hours Tuesday Night through daybreak Wednesday and then a second round with a cold front that will swing through Southern New England late Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The wind fields ahead of the cold front will be quite strong and the key factors will be the timing of the cold front and the amount of instability that can develop ahead of the cold front with the favorably strong wind fields.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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