Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Afternoon and Evening 7/13/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely across all of Southern New England except Cape Cod and the Islands for Monday Afternoon and Evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday. Threat timeframe is between 1-9 PM Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will move into the area at the time of peak heating Monday Afternoon and Evening. There should be sufficient heating and destabilization along with strong wind shear to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along the cold front. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the potential severe weather for Monday that will affect is magnitude is as follows:

1.) There could be a few showers and isolated thunderstorms early Monday Morning with associated cloud cover. It is expected that this will move out and allow for sufficient heating and destabilization for later in the afternoon and evening but if cloud cover were to linger, it could reduce the severe weather potential.
2.) Ability for stronger wind shear and expected high levels of instability to overcome a few unfavorable parameters in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200712_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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