August 2020 – Page 2

Post Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #1 – Isaias’ Impacts – Tuesday 8/4/20

August 7, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Isaias caused widespread pockets of tree, power line damage, some direct roof structural damage along with damage to homes from fallen trees and power outages particularly over Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island with more scattered pockets of wind damage in Eastern Massachusetts. Sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with wind gusts of 50-60 MPH and isolated wind gusts to 70 MPH occurred across Southern New England. Several Tornado Warnings were issued in parts of Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut but no touchdowns have been confirmed as yet..
..At the height of the storm, close to 700,000 power were without power in Connecticut, around 240,000 in Massachusetts and 150,000 in Rhode Island. Across Southern New England, over 1,000,000 customers were without power at the height of the storm due to impacts from Tropical Storm Isaias..
..Amateur Radio SKYWARN Nets were active especially across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island bringing a continuous flow of storm damage information, pictures and videos for situational awareness. Non-Amateur Radio SKYWARN Spotters sent in reports, pictures and videos via the WX1BOX social media feeds and other means. We will still take photos and storm videos and will update the WX1BOX Facebook photo album posted through the end of this weekend and possibly beyond that time as needed. They can be sent over WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter social media feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated. These pictures and videos will be utilized for the historical record in the publication Storm Data and a subset utilized in a Tropical Storm Isaias storm recap video that will be posted in the early Fall..
..This coordination message will be updated as we continue to put together the complete Amateur Radio Log of reports and update any additional pictures into the WX1BOX Facebook Photo Album. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement on wind gusts, Local Storm Report on storm damage, Post Storm report on Isaias, WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log and WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album..

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Wind Gust Information:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/PNS_wind_gusts_isaias_1.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Storm Damage Reports:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/LSR_storm_damage_isaias_1.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Post Storm Report – Isaias:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/PSH_storm_damage_isaias_1.pdf

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Reports – Version 1:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/reports_8_4_20_3.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hurricane Isiais Coordination Message #4 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday AM 8/5/20 Impacts

August 4, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isaias reintensifies into a category-1 hurricane before landfall later tonight in Southeast North Carolina into Northeast South Carolina. Isaias will then hug the coast and track through the Eastern New Jersey, the New York City area and Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts putting most of Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind and severe weather side of this system with tropical downpours and potential thunderstorms but overall less rainfall than the west side of the system..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for all of Southern New England for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible along with 1-4″ of rain possible with the highest amounts in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and in/near thunderstorms with heavy downpours. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that receive heavy downpours..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe weather with the area from Springfield to Amherst to Worcester south through Connecticut and Rhode Island in the slight risk area for the potential of damaging straightline winds from convective showers and thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes since we will be on the east side of the storm system..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Hartford County Connecticut and Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties of Massachusetts where the greatest risk of urban and poor drainage flooding is and the potential for small stream flooding and other larger streams and rivers could have strong in bank rises from the heavy rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will commence as required early Tuesday Morning lasting through Wednesday Morning with the peak of the worst conditions working west to east from late Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Morning. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Hurricane Isaias is a 85 MPH Category-1 hurricane approaching and affecting Northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina as of the 9 PM EDT Monday 8/3/20 Tropical Cyclone Update. The current track has landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on late Monday Night or early Tuesday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is now a Category-1 hurricane and will make landfall in the Carolinas and then track through Western New England interacting with a frontal zone which will allow for Isaias to maintain tropical storm intensity levels as it moves through the region. This puts Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind area with the possibility for severe weather but less rainfall in most of the area except for parts of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and areas that received showery tropical downpours.
2.) Isaias will track here with increasing forward speed meaning the forward speed of motion can add on to sustained wind speeds and wind gusts in the area. This aspect will bear monitoring for the damaging wind potential.
3.) Isaias will be quick hitting with a 6-9 hour period of strong to damaging winds and potential for thunderstorms and convective tropical downpours bringing strong winds down to the surface along with the potential for a couple isolated tornadoes.
4.) The heaviest rainfall outside of localized areas that receive repeated convective heavy showers and downpours will be in the Flash Flood Watch area of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut where 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts are possible. This will raise the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and small stream flooding with larger rivers and streams experiencing sharp within bank rises.

Preparations for a tropical storm should be made and completed by late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Isaias for local impacts Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning. The rough timeframe of worst conditions will be late Tuesday Afternoon into the early overnight hours of Wednesday Morning but some deteriorating conditions could start as early as Tuesday Morning with lingering conditions to around daybreak Wednesday Morning depending on track, speed and intensity. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hurricane Isaias Local Statement, Flash Flood Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infographics, Tropical Weather Safety Tips, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package including NHC Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Isaias Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2020.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Safety Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200803_1730.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Hurricane Isaias Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

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Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Storm Impacts

August 3, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to intensify into a category-1 hurricane before landfall in Southeast North Carolina into Northeast South Carolina. Isaias will then hug the coast and track through the Eastern New Jersey, the New York City area and Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts putting most of Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind and severe weather side of this system with tropical downpours and potential thunderstorms but overall less rainfall than the west side of the system..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for all of Southern New England for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH with isolated higher gusts possible along with 1-3″ of rain possible with the highest amounts in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and in/near thunderstorms with heavy downpours. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Urban and poor drainage flooding is possible in areas that receive heavy downpours..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for severe weather with a possible upgrade to Slight Risk in later outlooks for the potential of damaging straightline winds from convective showers and thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes since we will be on the east side of the storm system..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will commence as required early Tuesday Morning lasting through Wednesday Morning with the peak of the worst conditions working west to east from late Tuesday Afternoon through early Wednesday Morning. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Tropical Storm Isaias is a 70 MPH tropical storm approaching Northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina and is expected to intensify into a minimal Category-1 hurricane as of the 8 AM EDT Monday 8/3/20 advisory. The current track has landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on late Monday Night. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is forecast to strengthen into a minimal Category-1 hurricane before landfall in the Carolinas and then track through Western New England. This puts Southern New England in the strong to damaging wind area with the possibility for severe weather but less rainfall in most of the area except for parts of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and areas that received showery tropical downpours.
2.) Isaias will track here with increasing forward speed meaning the forward speed of motion can add on to sustained wind speeds and wind gusts in the area. This aspect will bear monitoring for the damaging wind potential.
3.) Isaias will be quick hitting with a 6-9 hour period of strong to damaging winds and potential for thunderstorms and convective tropical downpours bringing strong winds down to the surface along with the potential for a couple isolated tornadoes.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Isaias for local impacts Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning. The rough timeframe of worst conditions will be late Tuesday Afternoon into the early overnight hours of Wednesday Morning but some deteriorating conditions could start as early as Tuesday Morning with lingering conditions to around daybreak Wednesday Morning depending on track, speed and intensity. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Facebook Infographics, Tropical Weather Safety Tips, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package including NHC Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Tropical Storm Isaias Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3170984442995905/3170983612995988/?type=3&theater

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Preparedness Week Public Information Statements:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/pns_hurricane_preparedness_week_2020.pdf

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Safety Page:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_safety

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #2A – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Storm Impacts

August 3, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Due to the severe weather event from this Sunday Afternoon/Evening August 2nd, the next complete Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message will be posted by 1230 PM Monday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation remains possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isaias. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Sunday Afternoon and Evening 8/2/20 Severe Weather Potential

August 2, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening possibly extending into Eastern Connecticut, Central Massachusetts and Northwest Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary risk..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has upgraded all of Western Connecticut and Western Massachusetts to a slight risk of severe weather and has placed Central Massachusetts, Eastern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather. Models have expanded the severe weather potential into this area along with Eastern New York. This severe weather potential has to do with a warm front moving through area and is not in association with Tropical Storm Isaias..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western and Central New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will push through Southern New England during Sunday and behind the warm front, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms potentially reaching Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut during the afternoon and evening hours and possibly as far east as Eastern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and Central Massachusetts. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential include:

1.) How far north and east the warm front gets and at this time it could get far enough east to allow severe weather potential as far east as Worcester County Massachusetts, Eastern Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island
2.) How much clearing and destabilization builds into Western New England from Eastern New York behind the warm front and this could be the biggest question on how the severe weather potential evolves as we get to this afternoon and evening
3.) High-Resolution models had kept the better triggering and forcing south and west of Western New England but have at times brought some better forcing into Western New England and that was the trend in the models overnight which has caused SPC to expand the slight risk for severe weather further east and the marginal risk for severe weather into Central New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western and Central New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Tropical Storm Isaias Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Storm Impacts

August 2, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Isaias is a tropical system approaching East Coastal Florida and should be closely monitored for impacts in Southern New England in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. The type of impacts will depend on Isaias’ track toward the region as well as the speed of forward motion and the intensity of Isaias. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Isaias and look at early preparedness for the system understanding that impacts from this system remain in flux..
..The National Hurricane Center in Miami has placed all of Southern New England in the “cone of uncertainty” concerning impacts from the region from Tropical Storm Isaias and this necessitates the start of coordination messages for Isaias at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isaias. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Tropical Storm Isaias is an 70 MPH tropical storm approaching and affecting East and Southeast Coastal Florida as of the 8 PM EDT Saturday Evening 8/1/20 advisory. The current track has a possible landfall or very close pass to Eastern Florida on Sunday and another potential landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on Monday. It is noted that there has been an eastward trend in the guidance overnight last night and then a slight westward trend in the guidance today but the guidance could move back further east, stay on the current track or continue its westward trend. The headlines depict the current thinking and the fact that all of Southern New England is in the cone of uncertainty regarding impacts from Isaias in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. Key factors on impacts from Isaias are as follows:

1.) The intensity of Isaias as Isaias is forecast to strengthen overnight back into a hurricane Sunday Morning but then level off and potentially slowly weaken as it moves away from Florida Monday Morning. If Isaias is stronger, it could mean greater impacts and possibly less weakening over time and will bear watching. It is noted that Isasis’ appearance on satellite imagery has been looking better at the time of this coordination message posting.
2.) The track of Isaias is about the same as last night’s coordination message except it will remain a close call on whether a landfall in Florida will occur. The current track implies more land being scrapped as it makes it way up the coast but also intervals where its out over water. Models still show a reasonably strong system affecting the area, potentially as a moderate tropical storm. If it tracks over less coast line, a high end tropical storm or possibly even stronger system would be possible though this is a less likely scenario. If it scrapes even more land or is further west, less impacts would affect the region. The track guidance should gain better agreement over the next 24-36 hours.
3.) The speed of forward motion of Isaias and models are conflicted in how quickly Isaias makes its way up to New England with some models showing the classic acceleration of a tropical system as it makes its way up here while other models show a slower approach. This will be known over future model runs in the next day or two. It is noted the approach of Isaias is a bit slower than some models indicated last night with impacts in the late Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Morning timeframe as a rough estimate.

Now is the time to consider preparations for a tropical system possibly affecting the region. If it turns out to be a weaker system impact, you will be that much more prepared if another tropical system has potential to affect the region later in the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which has already been very active.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isaias. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isaias and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event. Another coordination message on Isaias will be posted by 1030 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday PM and Evening 8/2/20 Severe Weather Potential

August 1, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are Possible in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours and the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a Marginal to Slight risk for severe weather. It is noted the best threat for severe weather is in parts of Eastern-Central New York State but severe weather could affect portions of Western New England Sunday afternoon and evening. This severe weather potential has to do with a warm front moving through area and is not in association with Tropical Storm Isaias..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm front will push through Southern New England during Sunday and behind the warm front, there will be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms potentially reaching Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut during the afternoon and evening hours. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential include:

1.) How far north and east the warm front gets
2.) How much clearing and destabilization builds into Western New England from Eastern New York behind the warm front
3.) High-Resolution models keep the better triggering and forcing south and west of Western New England but have at times brought some better forcing into Western New England. If this can get further north and east into Southern New England, it would increase the severe weather potential for Western New England but if it hangs back into New York there will be isolated or no coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in Western New England.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Western New England for Sunday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Sunday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200801_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Hurricane Isaias Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/4/20-Wednesday Morning 8/5/20 Potential Impacts

August 1, 2020 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Isaias is a tropical system approaching and over the Bahama Islands and should be closely monitored for impacts in Southern New England in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. The type of impacts will depend on Isaias’ track toward the region as well as the speed of forward motion and the intensity of Isaias. SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Isaias and look at early preparedness for the system understanding that impacts from this system remain in flux..
..The National Hurricane Center in Miami has placed all of Southern New England in the “cone of uncertainty” concerning impacts from the region from Hurricane Isasis and this necessitates the start of coordination messages for Isasis at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through early Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isasis. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isasis and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event..

Hurricane Isaias is an 80 MPH Category-1 hurricane approaching and affecting the Bahamas as of the 8 PM EDT Friday Evening 7/31/20 advisory. The current track has a possible landfall in Eastern Florida on Sunday and another potential landfall in Northeast South Carolina to Eastern North Carolina on Monday. It is noted that there has been a westward trend in the guidance today but the guidance could move back further east, stay on the current track or continue its westward trend. The headlines depict the current thinking and the fact that all of Southern New England is in the cone of uncertainty regarding impacts from Isasis in the Tuesday through Wednesday Morning timeframe. Key factors on impacts from Isasis are as follows:

1.) The intensity of Isasis as Isasis is forecast to strengthen overnight into Saturday Morning but then level off and potentially slowly weaken on approach to Florida Sunday. If Isasis is stronger, it could mean greater impacts and possibly less weakening over time and will bear watching.
2.) The track of Isasis as the track has trended further west today implying more land being scrapped as it makes it way up the coast which would still mean a reasonably strong system affecting the area but possibly in a post tropical system form. If it tracks over less coast line, a tropical storm or possibly even stronger system would be possible. The track guidance should gain better agreement over the next 24-48 hours.
3.) The speed of forward motion of Isasis and models are conflicted in how quickly Isasis makes its way up to New England with some models showing the classic acceleration of a tropical system as it makes its way up here while other models show a slower approach. This will be known over future model runs in the next day or two.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be possible some time in the Tuesday Morning through early Wednesday Morning timeframe depending on the track speed and intensity of Isasis. ARES/RACES Groups should monitor the progress of Isasis and seek guidance from their local leadership on any activation plans as we get closer to this potential weather event. Another coordination message on Isasis will be posted by 1030 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt34.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt44.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt24.KNHC.html

Hurricane Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font14.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

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