Storm Coordination Message #2 – Monday Night 2/15/21-Tuesday Evening 2/16/21 Icing Potential

Hello to all…

..Potential exists for significant icing across portions of interior Southern New England. Some models have trended a bit warmer but some models have colder conditions and the highest risk area for icing that could be damaging is across the east slopes of the Berkshires and Northern Massachusetts in Franklin, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts. Also, the higher terrain of Northwest Hartford County CT could also see higher levels of icing that could cause pockets of icing damage..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM Monday Evening to 6 PM Tuesday Evening for Franklin, Worcester, Northern Middlesex, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for up to 1″ of snow and sleet and 0.10″-0.30″ of icing with isolated higher icing amounts. This amount of icing will result in hazardous road conditions and isolated pockets of tree, wire damage and power outages. If ice amounts near or around 0.50″ occur, tree, wire damage and power outages would be more widespread..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM Monday Evening to 10 AM Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Eastern Hampden and Eastern Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for up to 1″ of snow and up to 0.20″ of icing with isolated higher amounts..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM Monday Evening to 10 AM Tuesday Morning for Central Middlesex, Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk, North-Central Bristol, North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts, Providence, Kent, Bristol and Washington Counties of Rhode Island for up to 1″ of snow and light icing glaze..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across the Winter Weather Advisory area particularly for Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut for later Monday Evening into Tuesday Afternoon to monitor precipitation type, ice accretion levels and any icing damage..

A storm system will move its way up from the Southeast United States into the Northeast. Precipitation will be spotty and light Monday Afternoon and become steadier and heavier Monday Night into Tuesday Morning. The potential for a more potent ice storm seems to be less as some reliable model guidance warms things more quickly particularly in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast and South-Central Massachusetts but other model guidance is colder particularly across Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) How deep the column of cold air will be to determine if precipitation falls as freezing rain, sleet, snow or rain.
2.) The track of the storm as that will dictate the deepness of the cold air across the area including how much snow, sleet, freezing rain or rain falls in a given area and what areas could see the most ice accretion. Subtle differences in storm track of as little as 30-50 miles could significantly impact the areas that could see significant icing versus more snow and sleet or more rain. A bit of a warmer solution is predicted but areas of Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut will bear close monitoring for a bit higher icing amounts and if that were to occur more significant icing damage could occur. Spotter reports will be important to determine that potential particularly as we get into early Tuesday Morning.

For measuring ice accretion, please note the following graphics on how to properly measure ice on a flat surface or on an object such as tree, tree branch or other similar object as denoted by the SKYWARN training material:

https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/ice_measuring_per_SKYWARN-Training.pdf

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely across the Winter Weather Advisory area particularly for Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut for later Monday Evening into Tuesday Afternoon to monitor precipitation type, ice accretion levels and any icing damage. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant change occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow and Ice Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow and Ice Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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