April 2021

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Strong to Damaging Wind Potential Friday Afternoon/Evening 4/30/21-Early Saturday AM 5/1/21

April 30, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Beneficial Rainfall across Southern New England particularly in Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts with rainfall amounts between 1-3″ with isolated 3-4″ amounts across this area and lesser amounts under 1″ in the southern half of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds will be likely in pockets across much of Southern New England Friday Afternoon and Evening with even some snow showers in higher terrain locations Friday Night..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from 12 PM Friday Afternoon to 2 AM Saturday Morning for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts in the higher terrain and coastal areas. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..There is a chance for some snow showers Friday Night in higher terrain locations above 1000-1500 feet in Western and Central New England including the Worcester Hills, Northeast CT and perhaps even Northwest RI where a coating to 1″ of snow on grassy surfaces is possible with little to no accumulation in lower elevations but the potential for wet snow flakes mixed with rain in those areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall reports from Thursday into early Friday Morning and then strong to damaging winds region wide Friday Afternoon and Evening and any snow accumulations in the higher terrain of Western and Central New England. This will be the final coordination message on this storm event. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Wind Gust Map..

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Gust Map:
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/NWS_Boston_Norton_Wind_Gust_Map_4_30_21.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Strong to Damaging Wind Potential – Friday Afternoon and Evening 4/29/21

April 30, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Beneficial Rainfall across Southern New England particularly in Northwest, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts will continue through late evening with rainfall amounts between 1-2.5″+ across this area and lesser amounts under 1″ in the southern half of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds will be likely in pockets across much of Southern New England Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from 12 PM Friday Afternoon through 12 AM Saturday Morning for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts in the higher terrain and coastal areas. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..There is a chance for some snow showers Friday Night in higher terrain locations above 1000-1500 feet in Western New England where a coating to 1″ of snow on grassy surfaces is possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall reports as the rain winds down overnight and then strong to damaging winds region wide Friday Afternoon and Evening and any snow accumulations in the higher terrain of Western New England. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 4/21/21 Severe Weather Potential

April 21, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible to likely particularly over Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and extreme Northwest Rhode Island Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, lightning and brief urban and poor drainage flooding would be the main threats between 2-8 PM Wednesday.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Connecticut and extreme Northwest Rhode Island in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather for today,. Key factors in strong to severe thunderstorm development today is the degree of instability available or the amount of forcing to offset limited instability for convective showers and low-topped thunderstorms to organize and maintain their strength into portions of Southern New England to tap into strong wind fields aloft. Reliable models have trended further east with the strong to severe thunderstorm potential overnight into this morning resulting in the upgrade and expansion of the marginal and slight risk areas into our area..
..Potential exists for strong post frontal wind gusts of around 40 MPH with higher gusts possible across much of Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday. Separate updates will be posted regarding the strong wind potential later tonight after the severe weather potential has passed..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Wednesday. This will be the final coordination message on the severe thunderstorm potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 4/21/21 Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Potential

April 21, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms possible particularly over Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, lightning and brief urban and poor drainage flooding would be the main threats between 2-10 PM Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas of Eastern New York and New Jersey in a marginal risk for severe weather and this will be monitored for any expansion further east in future updates..
..Key factors in any strong to possibly isolated severe thunderstorm is the degree of instability available for convective showers and low-topped thunderstorms to organize and maintain their strength into portions of Southern New England to tap into strong wind fields aloft..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Wednesday. Another coordination message will be posted on this potential by 1100 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210420_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #3 – Thursday Evening 4/15/21-Friday 4/16/21 Coastal Storm Hazards

April 16, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A Coastal Storm will bring beneficial rainfall to Southern New England but also the potential for heavy wet snow to the higher elevations of Western Massachusetts particularly the east slopes of the Berkshires and the Northern Worcester County hill towns though some lower elevations in Western and Central Massachusetts could also see accumulating snowfall..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 8 PM Thursday Evening to 8 PM Friday Evening for Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 5-8″ of snow with localized amounts up to 10″ possible in areas about 1500 feet. The snow will be heavy and wet and have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 PM Thursday Evening to 2 AM Saturday Morning for Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of snow with higher amounts of 6″ or more at elevations above 1000 feet. The snow will be heavy and wet and have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 PM Thursday Evening to 8 PM Friday Evening for Western Hampden County, Eastern Franklin and Eastern Hampshire County of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of snow with isolated amounts of up to 6″ of snow in the highest elevations. The snow will be heavy and wet and have the potential to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..In areas that don’t mix with snowfall, widespread rainfall of 1-2″ is likely with this storm. Wind Gusts at the coast will be around 40 MPH. The coastal flood potential is low due to low astronomical tides..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system for Thursday Night into early Saturday Morning. Amateur Radio call-up nets will be utilized as required during the storm event particularly in the early morning starting around 5 AM Friday Morning..

A Coastal Storm will impact the region Thursday Night into Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Some models have the low pressure a bit further southeast and pour colder air even into lower elevation locations even as far east as interior Eastern Massachusetts. This will bear watching but current thinking is the heaviest snow will be in the higher elevations of Western and North-Central Massachusetts. Portions of Northern Connecticut may also see some snow accumulation.
2.) With heavy wet snow, if it accumulates to around 4″ or more, tree and wire damage and power outages are likely. The extent of this will be determined by the areal coverage of heavy wet snow and how low in elevation this occurs.
3.) Areas not receiving heavy wet snow will get beneficial rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts.
4.) Wind Gusts of around 40 MPH are expected at the coast and in some higher elevation locations.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system for Thursday Night into early Saturday Morning. Amateur Radio call-up nets will be utilized as required during the storm event. This will be the last coordination message unless a significant change to the forecast occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall and Rainfall Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map (Storm Total Precip Map for Areas of Western New England Getting Both Rain and Snow):
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ey9aBqTVgAE881E.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Night 4/15/21-Friday 4/16/21 – Coastal Storm Hazards

April 15, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..A Coastal Storm will bring beneficial rainfall to Southern New England but also the potential for heavy wet snow to the higher elevations of Western Massachusetts particularly the east slopes of the Berkshires and the Northern Worcester County hill towns though some lower elevations in Western and Central Massachusetts could also see accumulating snowfall..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 8 PM Thursday Evening to 8 PM Friday Evening for Western Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 5-8″ of snow with localized amounts up to 10″ possible in areas about 1500 feet. The snow will be heavy and wet and have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Thursday Evening to Friday Morning for Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 4-7″ of snow with the highest amounts at elevations above 1000 feet. The snow will be heavy and wet and have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 PM Thursday Evening to 8 PM Friday Evening for Western Hampden County of Massachusetts for 4-6″ of snow and for Eastern Franklin and Eastern Hampshire County of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of snow. The snow will be heavy and wet and have the potential to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..In areas that don’t mix with snowfall, widespread rainfall of 1-2″ is likely with this storm. Wind Gusts at the coast will be around 40 MPH. The coastal flood potential is low due to low astronomical tides..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system for Thursday Night into Friday. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 PM Thursday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall and Rainfall Maps..

A Coastal storm will impact the region Thursday Night into Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Some models have trended a bit further southeast with the low and pour colder air even into lower elevation locations even as far east as interior Eastern Massachusetts. This will bear watching but current thinking is the heaviest snow will be in the higher elevations of Western and North-Central Massachusetts. Portions of Northern Connecticut may also see some snow accumulation.
2.) With heavy wet snow, if it accumulates to around 4″ or more, tree and wire damage and power outages are likely. The extent of this will be determined by the areal coverage of heavy wet snow and how low in elevation this occurs.
3.) Areas not receiving heavy wet snow will get beneficial rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts.
4.) Wind Gusts of around 40 MPH are expected at the coast and in some higher elevation locations.

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map (Storm Total Precip Map for Areas of Western New England Getting Both Rain and Snow):
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ey9aBqTVgAE881E.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Night 4/15/21-Friday 4/16/21 Coastal Storm Hazards

April 15, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Map:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Rainfall Map (Storm Total Precip Map for Areas of Western New England Getting Both Rain and Snow):
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Ey9aBqTVgAE881E.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized