July 2021 – Page 2

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 7/17/21 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 17, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely today centered over Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut possibly extending into interior Rhode Island later this Saturday Afternoon and Evening any time between 2-9 PM EDT Saturday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage to flash flooding are all possible. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect for Northern Connecticut, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts from 2 PM Saturday Afternoon through late Saturday Night. Heavy downpours in thunderstorms will result in 1-2″ of rainfall with locally higher amounts. This rainfall combined with the wet weather pattern of the last several weeks may result in urban and poor drainage flooding as well as river and stream flooding in these areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather and flood potential in the region for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

A round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected portions of Southern New England Friday Afternoon into Evening. Any storm damage photos, pictures and videos, particularly from Northeast Massachusetts in the Topsfield/Boxford area and Northeast Connecticut particularly in the Thompson/Woodstock area which were the hardest hit areas can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook/Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org and the NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report can be seen here:

NWS Boston Local Storm Report – Friday 7/16/21 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107171213.nwus51.html

Yet another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and interior Rhode Island for Saturday Afternoon and Evening between 2-9 PM EDT. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Any leftover cloud cover affecting heating. At this time satellite imagery shows considerable breaks in the clouds but any showers and thunderstorms that form ahead of time of peak heating could affect the intensity of thunderstorms once we get near peak heating time.
2.) Wind shear is stronger than prior days but instability levels and timing will be key in the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region. With the stronger wind shear, we’ll be monitoring for the potential of any supercells before the storms evolve into lines and then potentially train over the same areas and the situation becomes one with higher flood potential.
3.) Recent heavy rainfall has reduced flash flood guidance so less rainfall may cause flooding to occur more quickly particularly in flood prone urban and poor drainage areas.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather and flood potential in the region. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Flash Flood Watch Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday Afternoon and Evening 7/16/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 16, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across much of Southern New England where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed all of Southern New England except for the islands in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe for the severe weather potential is 1-9 PM EDT Friday..
..Intense heat and humidity has prompted NWS Boston/Norton to issue a Heat Advisory from 2-7 PM EDT Friday for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices up to 100 expected. People in the heat advisory area and across Southern New England should be careful not to overexert themselves if working outdoors, drink plenty of liquids and seek air conditioned comfort wherever possible today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will affect the region Friday Afternoon and Evening with an impulse in the atmosphere near the time of peak heating to allow for the formation of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. The headlines depict the current thinking which is little changed except for an expansion of the marginal risk of severe weather across much of Southern New England except for the islands and the issues of a Heat advisory for portions of Eastern Massachusetts. Key factors on severe weather potential remain as follows:

1.) Dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere and what role it plays in convection. It could enhance damaging wind potential if storms can develop but too much dry air could cap the development of strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.
2.) The ability of intense heat and humidity to offset dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere along with the impulse atmosphere to be a sufficient trigger for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Friday’s severe weather potential. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Heat Advisory Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 7/16/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 15, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across interior Massachusetts and Northern Rhode Island along and north and west of a Boston to Providence line and through Northern Connecticut Friday Afternoon and Evening where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe for the severe weather potential is 1-9 PM EDT Friday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message on Friday’s severe weather potential will be posted by 11 AM EDT Friday Morning. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210715_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 7/14/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 14, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and much of Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather with Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts from the Boston area north and west, much of Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is now expected to be a bit later, between 3-10 PM EDT Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Conditions will become warm and humid on Wednesday as a warm front will swing through Southern New England. An impulse in the atmosphere will traverse the area near or shortly after the time of peak heating resulting in isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. The headlines depict the current thinking which includes an upgrade to parts of the Western Massachusetts and Northwest CT into a slight risk for severe weather for today. Key factors remain as follows:

1.) Any lingering cloud cover in the morning as the warm front moves through resulting in less heating and destabilization in the area.
2.) The timing of the impulse swinging through the atmosphere as a later arrival would mean less of a threat for severe weather or it would be confined to western parts of the area whereas a bit faster timing could put areas even further east at the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/14/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 14, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and much of Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and much of Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. The timeframe for the severe weather potential is between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Wednesday Morning. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210713_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather and Flash Flood Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Night 7/11 Through Tuesday Morning 7/12 Severe Weather & Flash Flood Potential

July 12, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms expected Sunday Night through Tuesday Morning with the potential for renewed urban, poor drainage river and stream flooding in pockets across Southern New England. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday Night into Monday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing South-Central Connecticut, South-Central Rhode Island and a small portion of south coastal Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning as the main threats for Monday Afternoon and Evening. The key factor for any severe weather potential is the position of the warm front and warm sector over the region and whether or not activity stays southwest of this area..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for 0.50-1.5″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts. With recent rainfall from Elsa and prior rainfall in July, this rainfall could result in urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Monday Evening for Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts for 1-2″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts. With recent rainfall from Elsa and prior rainfall in July, this rainfall could result in urban, poor drainage, river and stream flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the flooding and severe weather potential for Sunday Night through Tuesday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted some time between Monday Morning to early afternoon depending on how active operations on for any flooding during the first part of this storm event. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210711_1730.html

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2SSS

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Tropical Storm Elsa Coordination Message #3 – Thursday Evening 7/8/21-Friday 7/9/21 Elsa Impacts

July 9, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Active Weather Pattern through Friday as current light to moderate rainfall ahead of Elsa is occurring in portions of Western New England with heavier rainfall from Elsa and increasing wind speeds in Southeast New England to start arriving between 2-4 AM Friday across Southern New England. The Thursday severe weather potential wasn’t realized due to cloud cover and warm frontal positioning keeping the severe weather activity southwest of our coverage area today..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Merrimack River Massachusetts through New Haven Connecticut. In this area, tropical storm conditions are likely with sustained winds anywhere from 25-40 MPH and wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts to 60 MPH with the strongest wind gusts in South Coastal Rhode Island, South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. With recent wet conditions and these winds, scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are possible in this area..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday in association with Tropical Storm Elsa for strong to damaging winds and even the potential for an isolated tornado or two in this area. There could also be another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a front after Elsa moves out of the area for later Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from late Thursday Night to Friday Afternoon for 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts up to 6″. With recent wet conditions, this additional rainfall could lead to widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and some flooding of rivers and streams in the watch area. This is likely the biggest impact of Tropical Storm Elsa on the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active covering the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa and any severe weather after Elsa’s departure late Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding from the last 2 days of severe weather as well as Elsa’s impacts on Friday can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..

Yesterday featured another fairly widespread severe weather event with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across Southern New England. In addition, a nocturnal line of strong thunderstorms briefly reached severe limits in Southeast Worcester and Western Norfolk Counties around 345-400 AM this morning,. The latest Local Storm Reports giving the latest reports from this event can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Thursday Morning 7/8/21 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107081030.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Wednesday 7/7/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107080226.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html

Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org both for these past severe weather events as well as upcoming severe weather for Thursday and Elsa’s impacts for Thursday Night into Friday.

The Thursday severe weather potential wasn’t realized due to cloud cover and warm frontal positioning keeping the severe weather activity southwest of our coverage area today. Across Western New England, light to moderate rainfall is occurring as of this Thursday Evening and will continue to increase overnight with Tropical Storm Elsa approaching the region between 2-4 AM Friday which will bring an 8-hour window of heavy rainfall across areas of Southern New England north and west of I-95 and increasing strong to damaging winds across Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts. The headlines depict the current thinking with Tropical Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches posted as listed. Key factors include:

1.) Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track with 2-4″ of rain with isolated amounts up to 6″. With recent heavy rainfall from the past week, numerous pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are likely along with the potential for some river and stream flooding.
2.) Strong to damaging winds and the potential for severe weather exists along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system but with less rainfall in this area particularly over Cape Cod and the Islands. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes in this area. If the storm center tracks 50 miles further east, heavier rain and less wind and severe weather potential exists in these areas while a track as forecasted or further west would allow for the strong to damaging wind and severe weather potential in this area.

In addition, after Elsa moves out of the region by mid-afternoon Friday, models indicate the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms later Friday Afternoon and evening with a cold front. This will bear monitoring depending on Elsa’s movement out of the area to allow for heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will be active covering the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa and any severe weather after Elsa’s departure late Thursday Night into Friday. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode for Tropical Storm Elsa. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement, Flash Flood Watch Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Elsa information:

NWS Boston/Norton Hurricane Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2021/day2otlk_20210708_1730.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Elsa Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/8/21 Severe Weather Potential and Late Thursday Night 7/8/21-Friday 7/9/21 Tropical Storm Elsa Impacts

July 8, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Active Weather Pattern through Friday with additional severe weather potential Thursday and people in Southern New England need to prepare for heavy rainfall across much of Southern New England and strong to damaging winds and severe weather potential in Southeast New England from Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night through Friday Afternoon..
..Starting with Thursday, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a Marginal Risk of severe weather today as another potential round of Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely anytime between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday across the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats, however, even an isolated tornado is possible due to more shear and turning in the atmosphere with a warm front positioned in the area..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts through New Haven Connecticut after Tropical Storm Watches were issued Wednesday Evening. In this area, tropical storm conditions are likely with sustained winds anywhere from 25-40 MPH and wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts to 60 MPH possible across South Coastal Rhode Island, South Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. With recent wet conditions and these winds, scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages are possible in this area..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Central and Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather for Friday in association with Tropical Storm Elsa for strong to damaging winds and even the potential for an isolated tornado or two in this area. There could also be another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a front after Elsa moves out of the area for later Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for all of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from late Thursday Night to Friday Afternoon for 2-4″ of rain with isolated higher amounts up to 6″. With recent wet conditions, this additional rainfall could lead to widespread pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding and some flooding of rivers and streams in the watch area. This is likely the biggest impact of Tropical Storm Elsa on the region..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Thursday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding from the last 2 days of severe weather as well upcoming severe weather Thursday and Elsa’s impacts on Friday can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Thursday Morning 7/8/21 Severe Weather Event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107081030.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Wednesday 7/7/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107080226.nwus51.html

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today focused on Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut. Some heating is possible this morning before the next atmospheric impulse along a stalled warm front will move through the region. Today will have better shear values as well as turning in the atmosphere with the warm front nearby but not as much instability due to somewhat cooler temperatures and some more cloud cover with the warm front in the area. Models favor portions of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut for strong to severe thunderstorms between 1-9 PM EDT today. Given the turning in the atmosphere, an isolated tornado or two is possible in this area and will bear close watching.

As we look ahead to the Thursday Night and Friday timeframe, Tropical Storm Elsa will impact our region. The headlines depict the current thinking with Tropical Storm Warnings and Flash Flood Watches posted as listed. Key factors include:

1.) Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track with 2-4″ of rain with isolated amounts up to 6″. With recent heavy rainfall from the past week, numerous pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are likely along with the potential for some river and stream flooding.
2.) Strong to damaging winds and the potential for severe weather exists along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system but with less rainfall in this area particularly over Cape Cod and the Islands. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes in this area. If the storm center tracks 50 miles further east, heavier rain and less wind and severe weather potential exists while a track as forecasted or further west would allow for the strong to damaging wind and severe weather potential in this area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Thursday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa late Thursday Night into Friday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM EDT Thursday Evening depending on severe weather operations for Thursday and time allowing for an update to account for any significant changes to the forecast. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Elsa Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/7/21 Severe Weather Potential & Thursday 7/8/21-Friday 7/9/21 Tropical Storm Elsa Potential

July 7, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Active Weather Pattern through Friday with additional severe weather potential Wednesday and people in Southern New England need to begin monitoring Tropical Storm Elsa for potential impacts of heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track, strong to damaging winds along and southeast of the track including the potential for severe weather and the possibility of minor coastal storm surge flooding..
..Starting with Wednesday, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a Slight Risk of severe weather today as another potential round of Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely anytime between 1-9 PM EDT Wednesday across the region. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..Impacts from Tropical Storm Elsa could be felt beginning late Thursday Night and especially Friday across much of Southern New England. Will briefly mention her potential impacts to the region in this message and provide more details in future coordination messages.
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Wednesday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday Night into Friday..
..Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org..

Yesterday featured another fairly widespread severe weather event with pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages across Southern New England. The latest Local Storm Report giving the latest reports from this event can be seen here:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Report – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather event:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2107070013.nwus51.html

Pictures and videos of storm damage, hail, and flooding can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and to our email address pics@nsradio.org.

Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today across much of Southern New England. Intense heating and humidity will allow for high instability. Wind fields are similar to Tuesday in the region. Models show a cluster of storms ranging from impacts across much of interior Massachusetts north of the Mass Pike to a similar setup to yesterday where much of Massachusetts, Connecticut and parts of Rhode Island have a line of strong to severe thunderstorms sweep through the region. The key factors on how widespread the potential severe weather is for Wednesday is as follows:

1.) High instability levels compensating for marginally strong wind shear profiles.
2.) If wind shear profiles are a bit stronger than modeled, it would increase the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms.
3.) A strong enough trigger to tap into the high instability and marginally strong wind fields in the atmosphere.

As we look ahead to the Thursday Night and Friday timeframe, we will have the potential for impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa in our region. Elsa has the potential to bring heavy rainfall along and northwest of the track and strong to damaging winds, minor coastal flooding and the potential for severe weather along and southeast of the track. The current Elsa track has Elsa slicing through Southern New England meaning portions of Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands could get into the stronger wind and severe weather part of the tropical system with much of the rest of Southern New England getting into the heavy rainfall side of the system. A track difference as little as 50 miles will affect outcomes across Southern New England. Now is the time to prepare for tropical storm like conditions particularly in Southeast New England with heavy rainfall and potential for pockets of river, stream and urban flooding in portions of interior Southern New England north and west of the storm center. Further details will be posted in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Wednesday and the impacts of Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday Night into Friday. Another coordination message more focused on Tropical Storm Elsa will be posted by 11 PM EDT Wednesday Evening or worse case 9 AM EDT Thursday Morning. Below are the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast/Advisory:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Elsa Key Messages:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/150124.shtml?key_messages#contents

Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Graphics:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/092753.shtml?cone#contents

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather Coordination Message # 2 – Tuesday 7/6/21 Severe Weather Potential

July 6, 2021 Rob Macedo

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued all of Southern New England in a Slight risk for severe weather with the timeframe between 1-8 PM Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will return to Southern New England Tuesday and with an impulse in the atmosphere, it will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the Tuesday afternoon and evening hours. The headlines depict the current thinking with little change from last night. Key factors remain and include:

1.) Wind shear values will be marginally conducive for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts. If that shear becomes stronger, it could potentially mean a greater more widespread severe weather risk and this will be monitored. Certain mid-level instability parameters are also marginally favorable for severe thunderstorm development.
2.) There is some cloud cover in the region and with the overnight thunderstorms being a bit more robust than modeled, it does create some uncertainty on whether the impulse in the atmosphere will break and capping to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development. At this time, models still show the potential across much of Southern New England and despite cloud cover that is in the area, instability remains elevated over the region and should increase with breaks in the clouds noted on satellite imagery.
3.) Timing of strong to severe thunderstorm development in the area as some models show earlier timing but near the time of peak heating and other models show the development towards late afternoon and evening. This timing would be favorable but if showers and thunderstorms build in earlier towards mid to late morning or produce more cloud cover, this could limit the severe weather potential. At this time, models are giving a favorable timeframe for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

It is noted that we are also in a marginal risk for severe weather in portions of Southern New England for Wednesday. This will be discussed as needed in a future coordination message posted by 11 PM Tuesday Evening.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on the Tuesday severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

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