Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 10/16/21 Late Afternoon and Evening Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Convective showers with gusty winds and isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England particularly interior locations. Strong to damaging winds is the primary threat with the secondary threats of heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding, hail and frequent lightning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal risk of severe weather with a slight risk for severe weather in Berkshire County Mass to Litchfield and Fairfield Counties of Connecticut for Saturday late afternoon and evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening..

A strong cold front will be moving through Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon and evening with the potential of convective showers with isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat. The headlines depict the current thinking which shows a slight risk upgrade to areas just west of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area. Key factors remain:

1.) Instability will be very limited but if instability is a bit more than forecast, it would increase the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms or stronger winds in convective showers.
2.) Wind profiles will be quite strong aloft with favorable jet dynamics and this can potentially compensate for very limited instability and allow for a period of strong to damaging winds with convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather/strong wind potential for late Saturday Afternoon through Saturday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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