Storm Coordination Message #8 – Late Sunday Night 1/16/22-Monday 1/17/22 Storm Hazards

Hello to all…

..Active weather pattern continues focusing on the major storm system for Sunday Night into Monday storm which features heavy snow and/or icing changing to rain before ending in northern and western portions of the area, heavy rain and strong to damaging winds in eastern areas and coastal Southern New England and coastal flood concerns along the east and south facing coastal areas of Southern New England.
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from 12 AM tonight to 12 PM Monday for 6-12″ of snow with snowfall rates of 2″ per hour and wind gusts to 40 MPH. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 12 AM tonight to 12 PM Monday Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and wind gusts to 40 MPH..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from Midnight tonight to 7 AM Monday for Eastern Franklin County Massachusetts for 3-5″ of wet snow and is also in effect for Northern Connecticut, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, and Central Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and a light glaze of ice..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Rhode Island from 1 AM to 10 AM and from 1 AM to 12 PM for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Plymouth Counties and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65-70 MPH. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Western Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex, Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and North-Central Rhode Island from 4-10 AM Monday for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect from 9 AM to 1 PM Monday for the Monday Morning high tide cycle for East Coastal Massachusetts for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of the Monday Morning high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 1 PM for Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread minor to isolated pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of the Monday Morning high tide cycle and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 6 AM-9 AM for south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Sunday Night and especially Monday Morning through early afternoon for multiple storm hazards from this storm system with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely. Amateur Radio Net info is listed below and note a few of the updates and changes listed below..

*No major changes to the forecast. Please note that due a technical issue on the NWS web site – the snowfall maps on the site are not updated. Snowfall amounts in this message are the latest updated info*
*Updated Net information follows in the net section of the message. Remainder is unchanged.*

For the Sunday Night into Monday Evening storm system, the track that is favored is across Eastern Pennsylvania and East-Central New York. This means a front-end thump of snow and ice across Northern and Western Massachusetts with areas of Northern Connecticut, Northwest Rhode Island and interior Northeast Massachusetts seeing snow and mixed precipitation changing over to rain. The coastal plain will see snow quickly changing to a period of heavy rain with this system. In addition, there will be strong to damaging winds across Coastal Southern New England potentially in interior Southern New England with the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East and possibly South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors will include:

1.) The exact track of the storm system as a further west track will mean less snow and more rain even in northern and northwest part of our coverage area. A track further east would mean more snow and ice for interior Southern New England. Coastal areas will likely see a quick changeover to rain unless their is a significant change in the track further east. The track is slightly further east such that heavier snow is expected across the Berkshires and eastern slopes of the Berkshires and Northern Worcester County with advisory level snowfall elsewhere in Northern Connecticut and Western and Central Massachusetts in the lower elevations.
2.) The extent of the strong to damaging winds across the region. There will be very strong winds aloft and the key to the extent of wind damage will be how well it gets to the surface and whether it penetrates inland versus being confined to coastal areas. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are now in effect as the headlines depict for Rhode Island and much of Eastern Massachusetts. The strongest winds will be in the coastal areas and also in any convective showers and possibly even a thunderstorm or two that could be embedded in the heavy rain area which will help transport the stronger winds down to the surface. In interior locations, particularly those areas that receive snow and ice, the wind will also bear watching as if those winds are able to make the surface with wet snow and/or ice on trees and power lines, it could allow for pockets of damage due to that combination of winds, snow and ice.
3.) A Coastal Flood Warning is now posted for East Coastal Massachusetts and a Coastal Flood Advisory is now posted for Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding with the greatest risk for moderate coastal flooding in the Coastal Flood Warning area. This will be monitored closely during the storm event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late Sunday Night and especially Monday Morning through early afternoon for multiple storm hazards from this storm system with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets likely. We have listed the latest net information below and this is the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Here is SKYWARN Net info for this storm event and note some changes to this info:

Western Massachusetts ARES will activate an ARES-SKYWARN Net on HF starting at 630 AM ET Monday on 3944 KHz for those that have HF capability and will be called hourly through at least 1130 AM or 1230 PM. All areas welcome to give SKYWARN reports and not just Western Massachusetts.
Western Mass SKYWARN Net on the 146.940 PL: 127.3 Hz repeater starting at 700 AM ET Monday with subsequent nets announced on the net frequency
SKYWARN Net on the 146.970-Paxton Repeater PL: 114.8 Hz – Net schedule 700 AM ET Monday with subsequent nets announced on the net frequency
SKYWARN Net on the 146.790-Vernon CT Repeater PL: 82.5 Hz – Net Schedule 700 AM ET Monday with subsequent nets announced on the net frequency
The Cape and Islands Weather Net on 147.375-Falmouth Repeater Repeater will be monitored at 600 AM with subsequent nets on the 146.955-Barnstable Repeater to track coastal flooding and strong to damaging winds later in the morning.

Local area repeaters that will be monitored for strong to damaging winds and coastal flooding as needed and may have formal nets if conditions warrant on a short fused basis:
NB1RI – Repeater System
147.000-Dartmouth Repeater
145.470-Danvers Repeater
146.640-Waltham Repeater
145.230-Boston Repeater
147.180-Bridgewater Repeater
146.895-Walpole Repeater
146.685-Plymouth Repeater

Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Snowfall Maps, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, and Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=NPW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=CFW&issuedby=BOX

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&product=AFD&issuedby=BOX

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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