Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/12/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across interior Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe would be any time between 3-10 PM Tuesday.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut from roughly the Connecticut River Valley west into Eastern New York in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather from east of the Connecticut River Valley to the I-95 corridor of Northwest Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will build into the region on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will sweep through Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for the severe weather potential Tuesday include:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization ahead of any overnight or Tuesday morning convection that may impact parts of the region.
2.) Amount of moisture that returns after any morning convection. Models show drying in the atmosphere during the afternoon with some moisture return towards late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. If this moisture return can occur not too far past the time of peak heating, it will increase the severe weather potential. If the moisture return is too late, severe weather potential will be reduced with most thunderstorms being non-severe in nature later Tuesday Evening.
3.) Amount of forcing with the front and how quickly it moves in for the front to tap into sufficient wind shear profiles and expected moderate instability levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address:
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