Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Afternoon and Evening 7/12/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across interior Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Timeframe would be any time between 3-10 PM Tuesday.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the slight risk for severe weather area into Western and Central Massachusetts and into Northwest and North Central Connecticut from roughly Tyngsboro, through Worcester Massachusetts and Vernon, Connecticut west with a marginal risk for severe weather east of the Tyngsboro-Worcester-Vernon line to the Boston to Providence I-95 corridor of Eastern Massachusetts and Northwest Rhode Island..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will build into the region on Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will sweep through Southern New England Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking which expands the highest severe weather potential into portions of North-Central Connecticut and Central Massachusetts. Key factors for the severe weather potential Tuesday remain:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization ahead of any late Tuesday morning/early afternoon convection that may impact parts of the region.
2.) Amount of moisture that returns after any morning convection. Models show drying in the atmosphere during the afternoon with some moisture return towards late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. If this moisture return can occur not too far past the time of peak heating, it will increase the severe weather potential. If the moisture return is too late, severe weather potential will be reduced with most thunderstorms being non-severe in nature later Tuesday Evening.
3.) Amount of forcing with the front and how quickly it moves in for the front to tap into sufficient wind shear profiles and expected moderate instability levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address:
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