Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 7/18/22 Severe Weather/Flood Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across portions of Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats and an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in a marginal risk of severe weather for Monday and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England north and west of the I-95 corridor in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..
An area of showers and thunderstorms will likely form and move into the region during Monday Morning. This area should be non-severe but will be monitored for any severe potential. After that area moves through, the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible for Monday Afternoon and evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) Amount of heating and destabilization that can occur after the initial showers and thunderstorms move through the area presuming that forms as expected.
2.) The timing of the cold front and how far east the forcing gets to allow for thunderstorm and severe weather development.
3.) Heavy rainfall is expected. The rain will be beneficial but if its heavy enough and falls in a short enough period of time, it can result in urban and poor drainage flooding in susceptible areas.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1230 PM Monday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220717_1730.html
WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – https://twitter.com/wx1box