Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/13/22 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England late Tuesday Morning through early evening with interior locations of Southern New England and locations in Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut favored. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for late Tuesday Morning through early Tuesday Evening. The timeframe for severe weather potential is between 10 AM-6 PM EDT Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday..

A cold front will move through the Northeast on Tuesday. Strong wind shear profiles and sufficient instability will allow for the possibility of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as the front will eventually usher in fall-like weather for a couple of days as we go through the rest of the week. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors include:

1.) Amount of instability as cloud cover could prevent severe thunderstorm development but if more clearing occurs, it could allow for greater coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) Amount of forcing and whether it is sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm or if it moves the area of greatest strong to severe thunderstorm coverage north and east of our area.
3.) Sufficient overlap of forcing and instability, which is currently expected over Western and Northern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but will need to be monitored further east along with factors one and two.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM EDT Tuesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2022/day2otlk_20220912_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org