Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 9/19/22 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut this Monday Afternoon and Evening between 3-8 PM EDT and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has this area in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday..
A cold front will move through Southern New England on Monday and could potentially allow for a few isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this Monday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the current thinking and key factors include:
1.) Instability with clearing and strong heating noted in the marginal risk area after initial cloudiness earlier this morning.
2.) The timing of strong to severe thunderstorm development close enough to the time of peak heating
3.) Shear profiles are reasonably sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorm development
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday. This will be the only coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org