Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Afternoon 1/19/23-Friday Evening 1/20/23 Wintry Mix Potential

Hello to all…

..Storm system bringing a wintry mix of precipitation changing to snow to interior Southern New England Thursday Afternoon through early Friday Evening with rain across Southeast New England. Minor coastal flooding is likely during the Friday Morning high tide for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 6 PM Friday Evening for Franklin, Hampshire, Northern Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex, and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts and is now expanded through Southeast Middlesex and Eastern Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of snow and a light glaze of ice with the lowest amounts in lower elevations and eastern areas of the advisory and the higher amounts in western and northern parts of the advisory and the higher elevations. The Friday Morning commute will be impacted by the wintry precipitation..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 6 PM Friday Evening for Hartford County Connecticut, Hampden and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for a coating to 2″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and up to 0.10″ of ice particularly over the higher elevations. The Friday Morning commute will be impacted by the wintry precipitation..
..Areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory will see mostly rain with a changeover to snow before ending with 1″ or less of accumulation..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 5 AM to Noon Friday for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for up to 1 foot inundation above ground level affecting the lower lying shore lines and most vulnerable shore road locations..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets possible to monitor for snowfall, ice accretion, rainfall, precipitation type and coastal flood reports through Friday Evening..

A storm system will affect portions of interior Southern New England with wintry precipitation with minor coastal flooding possible for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket during the Friday Morning high tide. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) While the heaviest snow is expected in Vermont and New Hampshire, accumulating snow will impact portions of interior Massachusetts with the highest amounts in Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts. If deeper cold air can be maintained or continued in parts of interior Massachusetts particularly Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts, then higher snow amounts would be possible. Model trends shifted back a bit warmer which has resulted in slightly lower snow amounts in the advisory area.
2.) Main concerns are for hazardous travel conditions with little impact to infrastructure unless freezing rain would become more of a predominant form of precipitation and that’s currently not expected at this time but will be monitored.
3.) Minor coastal flooding could impact the Friday Morning high tide cycle and this will bear watching and reporting on coastal flooding during this high tide cycle will be needed.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets possible to monitor for snowfall, ice accretion, rainfall, precipitation type and coastal flood reports through Friday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snow/Ice Accretion Maps, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snow/Ice Accretion Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
https://www.wx1box.org