Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 6/6/23 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to possibly Severe Thunderstorms are possible this Tuesday Afternoon and Evening across Southern New England between 1-8 PM. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) recently upgraded portions of Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island to a Marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening..

An impulse in the atmosphere will move across the region Tuesday Afternoon and Evening and heating in the atmosphere, cooling temperatures aloft, it will set the stage for some isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms for the region. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Ability for marginally low wind shear values, though higher than initially forecasted, to be compensated by magnitude of instability and the wide temperature/dewpoint spread that may allow for and enhance the strong wind potential despite weak wind shear aloft similar to what occurred Friday.
2.) The actual magnitude of the instability that can develop ahead of the front despite low moisture values in the atmosphere.
3.) The ability of cooling aloft in the atmosphere to offset other marginal severe weather parameters such as more limited moisture and instability.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the only coordination message for this severe weather potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address:
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