Storm Coordination Message #4 – Late Sunday PM 12/10/23 Through Early Monday PM 12/11/23 Multi-Hazard Storm System

Hello to all…

..Significant Multi-Hazard Storm on track to impact Southern New England late Sunday Afternoon through early Monday Afternoon with the potential for strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall leading to river/stream/urban flood potential, and the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide across portions of South Coastal Rhode Island & Massachusetts..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Coverage Area except for Cape Cod and the Islands from Sunday Afternoon to Monday Evening for 2-4″ of rain across the whole watch area and a band of 4-6″ of rain with locally higher amounts across portions of South-Central Connecticut and South-Central Massachusetts potentially leading to flooding of small rivers, streams and urbanized areas..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect for Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth, Southern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island from 10 PM Sunday Night through 10 AM Monday Morning and for Cape Cod and the Islands from 10 PM Sunday Night to 1 PM Monday Afternoon for sustained winds of 30-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage with scattered power outages likely..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM Sunday Evening to 1 PM Monday Afternoon for Providence, Kent and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-35 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage with scattered power outages likely..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 4 AM-8 AM Monday Morning for Southeast Providence, Bristol, Eastern Kent, Newport, Washington Counties of Rhode Island and Southern Bristol County of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide along vulnerable shore roads in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island..
..Some snow is possible Monday Morning into the early afternoon for portions of the higher elevations in Northern and Western Massachusetts. At this time, this looks confined to Northwest Franklin and Northwest Hampshire Counties where 1-3″ of snow is possible and an inch or less of snow elsewhere in the higher elevations but this will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with monitoring of Amateur Radio Repeaters is likely late Sunday Night through Monday Morning for reportable criteria on rain gauge reports, rain related flooding, coastal flooding, wind damage and measured wind gusts 40 MPH or Greater. Pictures and videos of storm damage, coastal flooding, river, stream or urban flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and/or Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated..

A significant multi-hazard storm has potential to bring impacts to Southern New England Sunday Night through Monday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) How much winds will be able to mix down to the surface in Cape Cod and the Islands and coastal Southern New England as there are very strong winds aloft. Models have continued the trend of stronger winds in more areas so High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories have been posted and expanded.
2.) If a convective line of showers or thunderstorms forms and further supports mixing down of damaging winds to the surface and also enhances heavy rainfall.
3.) Strength of the low pressure system as it moves over Southern New England as that could also impact the strength of the winds. The stronger solutions that were in the model runs during the day have continued into Sunday Morning which is another reason for the increased and expanded damaging winds in the area.
4.) There will be a changeover to snow on the back end of the system with the greatest threat for heavy snowfall in Northern New England but will need to monitor the higher elevations of Northwest and North-Central Massachusetts for snow on the back-end of the system as it winds down. At this time, snow accumulations are expected to be light but this will bear watching in case there is more precipitation on the back-end of the storm that would allow for higher snow amounts.
5.) Axis of heavy rainfall and whether it can cause river, stream and/or urban flooding in the Flood Watch area. Confidence is growing in potential flooding and there will be an axis of 4-6″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in the Flood Watch area which is now being predicted to be across South-Central Connecticut and South-Central Massachusetts.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with monitoring of Amateur Radio Repeaters is likely late Sunday Night through Monday Morning for reportable criteria on rain gauge reports, rain related flooding, coastal flooding, wind damage and measured wind gusts 40 MPH or Greater. Amateur Radio repeater monitoring will be done during this storm event. Pictures and videos of storm damage, coastal flooding, river, stream or urban flooding can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook and/or Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator unless otherwise indicated.

While the main focus of that monitoring will be Monday Morning through early Afternoon, we will have nets on the 146.940-Mount Tom Repeater at 8 PM and 10 PM Sunday Evening and on Monday Morning at 6 AM, 8 AM, and 10 AM. Additional nets could occur in other parts of the coverage area on Monday or repeaters will be monitored as needed for areas hardest hit by this storm.

This will likely be the last coordination message on this multi-hazard storm unless a significant update to the situation occurs and/or further Amateur Radio net schedules are defined and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=FFA&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWS-Boston-Norton-Rainfall-Forecast-12_10_23_12_11_23_Rev_2.jpg

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement & Wind Gust Map:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
https://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/NWS-Boston-Norton-Wind-Gust-Map-12_10_23_12_11_23_Rev_2.jpg

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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