Hello to all…

**Only changes are to the Coastal Flood Headlines with a Coastal Flood Warning for Nantucket and a Coastal Flood Advisory for Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard Sunday to mid-PM Monday at the time of high tide cycles, a Cold Weather Advisory for Western Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut late Saturday Night to late Sunday AM & a Wind Advisory for Cape Cod & the Islands for much of the day Sunday.**
**Key factors remain for how much snowfall, strong winds and extent of coastal flooding over high tide cycles Sunday into Monday PM.**
**This will likely be the last coordination message unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift to Ops mode.**

..Bitter Cold Temperatures and Wind Chills expected through the weekend into Monday across the region..
..A large ocean storm will track offshore of Southern New England but will bring accumulating snowfall to Southeast Massachusetts and particularly Cape Cod and the Islands, strong to potentially damaging wind gusts to East Coastal Massachusetts and Southeast coastal New England late Saturday Night through Monday Morning and minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of several high tide cycles across East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands Sunday into Monday Afternoon..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM Monday for Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and the Islands for 2-4″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and the highest amounts over the mid to outer Cape and Nantucket. Areas of the South Shore and South Coastal Massachusetts could see a Coating to 2″ of snow. Strong wind gusts of 45-50 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts are possible. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 5 AM to 11 PM Sunday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely and isolated higher gusts possible. Areas of East and South Coastal Massachusetts outside of the advisory area could see wind gusts to 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree, wire damage and power outages..
.. A Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect from 8 AM Sunday to 2 PM Monday for Nantuckert for minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads that could lead to some road closures of most exposed coastal areas or areas damaged by previous coastal flood events. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Sunday to 2 PM Monday for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk, Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide cycles through this period causing shore road flooding to most exposed areas and possibly a few road closures..
..A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Saturday Evening to 10 AM Saturday Morning for wind chill indices to 15 below zero. Areas outside of the advisory could see single digit below zero wind chills. Dress in layers and limit outside exposure as needed..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets on the Cape & Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts for snowfall, wind gust, wind damage and coastal flood reports Sunday through Monday Afternoon. Pictures/videos of the storm can be sent as a reply to this message via our WX1BOX Facebook/X/Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..

A large coastal storm will pass offshore of Southern New England late Saturday Night into early Monday Morning. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Any shift to the west will change the impacts significantly especially over Cape Cod and the Islands but even adjacent areas of Southeast Coastal Massachusetts increasing snowfall and wind potential. Any shift to the east would lessen impacts further.
2.) Even with these track deviations, strong wind gusts of at least 45-50 MPH and isolated higher gusts are likely and a track further west would increase the wind potential while a track further east would lessen the potential.
3.) With a large intense coastal storm systems, we sometimes will see things such as a larger precipitation envelope that isn’t modeled correctly and/or ocean effect that enhances snowfall in localized areas on Cape Cod and the Islands and Southeast coastal New England. A further offshore track or more tightly wounded system could mean less snow/wind/coastal flood impacts than currently forecasted as well. This aspect will be monitored closely for any deviations.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets on the Cape & Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts for snowfall, wind gust, wind damage and coastal flood reports. Pictures/videos of the storm can be sent as a reply to this message via our WX1BOX Facebook/X/Bluesky feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated. This will likely be the last coordination message unless a significant update to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift to Ops mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement/Snowfall Maps, Wind/Cold Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion & Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Weather Advisory Statement & Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory/Cold Weather Advisory:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=CFW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
https://ares.ema.arrl.org
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