Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday July 17th, 2012 Severe Weather Potential
Hello to all..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for later this Tuesday afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat is contingent on southward extent of a disturbance that will affect portions of Northern New England and whether short-range computer models indicating much greater instability over Southern New England verify versus other reliable models indicating much less instability over the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this afternoon and evening if severe weather threat materializes in the NWS Taunton portion of the SPC Slight Risk area..
A conditional severe weather threat exists for northern portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area from Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeastern Massachusetts for later this afternoon and tonight as SPC has placed this region in a slight risk for severe weather with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. Weather models, even this close to the event, are struggling to resolve instability parameters ahead of a disturbance that will affect Northern New England with severe weather and how far south the extent of the severe weather will be. Short range reliable computer models are indicating that instability will increase allowing for severe weather in the southern portions of the area SPC has placed in Slight Risk. Other reliable computer models, however, keep the threat north of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Enough risk exists at this time to issue a severe weather coordination message covering the threat.
An additional severe weather risk exists for Wednesday for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area. This will be covered in later coordination messages Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this afternoon and tonight. This will be the only complete coordination message issued covering today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Hello to all..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for later this Tuesday afternoon and Evening. Damaging Winds, large hail and urban/poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..Threat is contingent on southward extent of a disturbance that will affect portions of Northern New England and whether short-range computer models indicating much greater instability over Southern New England verify versus other reliable models indicating much less instability over the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this afternoon and evening if severe weather threat materializes in the NWS Taunton portion of the SPC Slight Risk area..
A conditional severe weather threat exists for northern portions of the NWS Taunton coverage area from Southern New Hampshire, Western, North-Central and Northeastern Massachusetts for later this afternoon and tonight as SPC has placed this region in a slight risk for severe weather with damaging winds, large hail and urban and poor drainage flooding as the primary threats. Weather models, even this close to the event, are struggling to resolve instability parameters ahead of a disturbance that will affect Northern New England with severe weather and how far south the extent of the severe weather will be. Short range reliable computer models are indicating that instability will increase allowing for severe weather in the southern portions of the area SPC has placed in Slight Risk. Other reliable computer models, however, keep the threat north of the NWS Taunton coverage area. Enough risk exists at this time to issue a severe weather coordination message covering the threat.
An additional severe weather risk exists for Wednesday for much of the NWS Taunton coverage area. This will be covered in later coordination messages Tuesday Night into Wednesday.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later this afternoon and tonight. This will be the only complete coordination message issued covering today’s threat. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html
SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org