Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Sunday Night 12/17/23-Monday 12/18/23 Coastal Storm Hazards
Hello to all…
..A strong coastal storm will bring another round of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall to much of Southern New England with the potential for minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding to South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This storm system is more intense and will intensify significantly on approach and over Southern New England which means the potential for strong to damaging winds could be more widespread than the event early last week..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts including Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. Additional Wind headlines will be likely for inland areas in future updates. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage with scattered power outages..
..Heavy rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are likely in Southern New England with the higher end rainfall amounts in Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. This will be monitored for potential flooding of urban, poor drainage areas, small rivers and streams..
..Minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding is possible at the time of the Monday high tide in South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island. This will depend on the strongest winds coinciding before and during that high tide cycle..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge, flooding, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater and wind damage reports for this storm system. The peak of the storm will be Monday Morning through mid-afternoon. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding and can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org..
Another storm system will bring the potential for strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and the potential of minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding if the strong to damaging winds are before and during the Monday high tide cycle. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:
1.) This is a strong/deeper coastal storm system than the one early last week. With the storm last week, approximately 14,000 customers lost power in Southern New England with close to 9,000 in Massachusetts. The strong wind gusts forecast did materialize but were in pockets and isolated to pockets where heavier rain and convective showers brought the winds down to the surface. It was also noted that areas just inland of some coastal areas also had some of the strongest winds. Where this storm will be stronger and intensifying near or over Southern New England, this may allow for winds of similar magnitude as last week but over a larger area which could create more scattered pockets of wind damage and power outages than the last storm event. Additional wind headlines are possible in future updates.
2.) Heavy rainfall and renewed potential for flooding is possible across portions of Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and possibly into parts of Rhode Island. A widespread 1-3″ of rainfall is likely with isolated higher amounts and the overall highest amounts in interior Southern New England. As we get into the higher resolution model runs, we will have a better idea of where the heaviest rainfall will occur in the region.
3.) Minor to low-end moderate coastal flooding is possible at the time of high tide if strong winds occur before and during the high tide cycle. This will be monitored for future updates.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rain gauge, flooding, measured wind gusts 40 MPH or greater and wind damage reports for this storm system. The peak of the storm will be Monday Morning through mid-afternoon. Pictures and videos of storm damage and flooding and can be sent as a reply to this message, via our WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds and via the email address pics@nsradio.org. The next coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, High Wind Watch Statement, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=NPW&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=box
Respectfully Submitted,
Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
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