Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to possibly even severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon and evening across portions of Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds are the main threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with the potential for an upgrade to a slight risk for severe weather later today. In addition, strong wind gusts to 40 MPH with isolated stronger wind gusts will be possible ahead of and behind the cold front that will have the potential to cause the isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the thunderstorm and strong wind potential for today. This will be the only coordination message on this potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Storm system for Friday produced heavy rainfall and strong winds in Southeast New England with minor coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Strong Winds and another round of minor coastal flooding is likely for East Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for the Saturday Afternoon High Tide. Southern New England is now expected to see little to no direct impacts from Hurricane Joaquin though monitoring will continue through early afternoon Saturday..
..A Wind Advisory in effect through 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East Coastal Massachusetts may reach around 40 MPH through midday Saturday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 3-6 PM EDT Saturday Afternoon/Evening for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Late Afternoon to early Evening high tide..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds and minor coastal flood threat for Saturday. After Saturday, no further SKYWARN Activation’s of any kind appear to be needed as Hurricane Joaquin is currently expected to stay offshore..

The Friday storm system brought 1-3″ of rainfall to Southeast Coastal New England and wind gusts in the 45-50 MPH range across South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands. Strong winds will continue through midday to mid-afternoon Saturday across Southeastern New England. A Wind Advisory in effect through 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East Coastal Massachusetts may reach around 40 MPH through midday Saturday.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 3-6 PM EDT for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Saturday Late Afternoon to Early Evening high tide. The level of minor coastal flooding will be similar or slightly more than what was experienced on Friday.

After several additional model runs through the day Friday, the spread in model guidance, while still there, is closer to the norm for any tropical system and the track of Hurricane Joaquin appears more certain and will most likely be out to sea south and east of Southern New England. This will mean little to no impact for Southern New England other than rip currents and swells at the coast. Monitoring of model runs through mid-afternoon Saturday will occur but the recent model trends has been quite solid over the course of Friday leading to higher confidence that the track guidance well offshore of New England will be the most likely path. Nonetheless, this will be monitored through mid-afternoon Saturday and beyond as needed. This will be the last coordination message on Hurricane Joaquin barring a significant change to the track meaning more impact to any part of Southern New England.

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net stood down operations during the afternoon and evening. The damage on Rum Cay and San Salvador Bahamas is very significant as the hurricane force conditions lasted close to 1-1.5 days causing very significant damage in this area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds and minor coastal flood threat for Saturday. After Saturday, no further SKYWARN Activation’s of any kind appear to be needed as Hurricane Joaquin is currently expected to stay offshore. This will likely be the last coordination message on Saturday’s expected strong winds and minor coastal flooding and Hurricane Joaquin unless something changes of significance with the Saturday weather or the track of Hurricane Joaquin. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Natipnal Hurricane Center – Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

..Storm system for Friday into early Saturday will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Southeast New England and another threat of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Friday to 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 11 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday into Saturday Morning..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin. Models consensus has shifted east over the course of Thursday but there is still wide model spread and we remain around 3-4 days out from impact, if any, from Joaquin and interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin..

Another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Friday to 11 AM Saturday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect through 3 PM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 11 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday into Saturday Morning.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide. The stronger winds especially over Cape Cod and the Islands may result in a few more minor coastal flood reports than what occurred Thursday.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin remains a major hurricane and is pummeling the Bahamas with an extended period of hurricane force conditions. Joaquin is expected to hold its intensity over the next couple days followed by slow weakening. Overnight, some of the models, including the European model have trended a bit more west. It is unclear if this trend will continue or will stop and remain an offshore solution and there still is a larger spread than normal in the different model guidance. More model runs from today will help lend confidence into the track of Joaquin. We remind everyone that impacts, if any, from Hurricane Joaquin are still 3-4 days out and the interaction of Joaquin with the stalled out cold front, an upper low moving into the Southeast US and the high pressure system to the east is quite complex and fluctuations in model tracks may continue to occur. Interests in Southern New England should continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Joaquin through midday Saturday to see if the current trend holds or if changes occur. Additional synoptic scale missions will occur today into Friday with data ingested into the next model suites which should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

It is noted that National Hurricane Center Director, Dr. Rick Knabb and FEMA Administrator, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate both praised the efforts of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net which are active with Hurricane Joaquin pummeling the Bahamas. The VoIP Hurricane Net has no paths directly to Amateur Radio Operators in the Bahamas but have been monitoring social media and the storm bloggers site, stormcarib.com to gather additional reports from the Bahamas. Links to the NHC director’s comments, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate’s comments and the Hurricane Net Operations can be seen via the links below:

KK4INZ-Craig Fugate visit to WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
https://twitter.com/CraigatFEMA/status/649659043489935360

Dr. Rick Knabb – Director of National Hurricane Center Comments:
https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/649671276609585152

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the National Hurricane Center Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Natipnal Hurricane Center – Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..Another storm system will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to Southeast New England and another threat of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Friday Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin. Models consensus has shifted east over the course of Thursday but there is still wide model spread and we remain around 4 days out from impact, if any, from Joaquin and interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin..

Thursday’s high tide cycle brought minor splashover and a few shore road closures in parts of East Coastal Massachusetts. Also, late Thursday evening, wind gusts in the 40-45 MPH range have been observed on Nantucket Island and parts of East Coastal Massachusetts ahead of the next storm system.

On Friday, another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 2 AM Friday to 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH for Nantucket Island. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Block Island RI from 2 PM Friday through 2 AM Saturday for sustained winds of 25-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts in East and South Coastal of Massachusetts may reach 40 MPH through the day Friday. There is the potential that these strong winds could continue into Saturday and will be monitored.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from 1-5 PM EDT Friday Afternoon for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Friday Afternoon high tide. The stronger winds especially over Cape Cod and the Islands may result in a few more minor coastal flood reports than what occurred Thursday.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin remains a major hurricane and is pummeling the Bahamas with an extended period of hurricane force conditions. Joaquin is expected to hold its intensity over the next couple days followed by slow weakening. The general model trend through the day Thursday has kept trending eastward with a bit more consensus in the model guidance pointing to an offshore solution, however, there remains several reliable hurricane and operational models that keep a track closer to the US East Coast and we remain 4 days away from impact, if any, from Hurricane Joaquin and the interaction of Joaquin with the stalled out cold front, an upper low moving into the Southeast US and the high pressure system to the east of the ridge is quite complex and fluctuations in model tracks may continue to occur. Interests in Southern New England should continue to monitor the track of Hurricane Joaquin through Friday Evening and into Saturday Morning to see if the current trend holds or if changes occur. The spread in the model consensus continues to be large though not as large as earlier this morning. Additional synoptic scale missions will occur today into Friday with data ingested into the next model suites which should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

It is noted that National Hurricane Center Director, Dr. Rick Knabb and FEMA Administrator, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate both praised the efforts of WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, and the Hurricane Watch Net which are active with Hurricane Joaquin pummeling the Bahamas. The VoIP Hurricane Net has no paths directly to Amateur Radio Operators in the Bahamas but have been monitoring social media and the storm bloggers site, stormcarib.com to gather additional reports from the Bahamas. Links to the NHC director’s comments, KK4INZ-Craig Fugate’s comments and the Hurricane Net Operations can be seen via the links below:

KK4INZ-Craig Fugate visit to WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
https://twitter.com/CraigatFEMA/status/649659043489935360

Dr. Rick Knabb – Director of National Hurricane Center Comments:
https://twitter.com/NHCDirector/status/649671276609585152

WX4NHC – Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the Friday storm system. SKYWARN Activation status for late this weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and any threat of Hurricane Joaquin. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Friday. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..Updated Hurricane Joaquin section. Remainder is unchanged..
..The Wednesday Storm System dumps 2-5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts across much of Southern New England with pockets of coastal flooding, river/stream/urban flooding and pockets of wind damage up to 50 MPH in portions of Southern New England particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Thursday will bring wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and a round of minor coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from Noon-4 PM EDT for East Coastal Massachusetts Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Afternoon high tide..
..Friday will bring another storm system with strong winds and heavy rainfall centered across Southeast New England followed by a lull on Saturday though strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin and potential impact to the US East Coast from North Carolina northward. It remains too early to get into specifics regarding Joaquin but interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants..

The Wednesday storm system packed a fairly potent punch for Southern New England. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5″ were common with isolated higher amounts across Southern New England. Pockets of coastal flooding were reported along parts of South Coastal Massachusetts with river, stream and urban flooding reports as well. Wind gusts were as high as 50 MPH across portions of Southern New England, particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts. Below is the latest NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall and wind measurements and the storm log kept during the SKYWARN Self-Activation for Wednesday’s storm:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

SKYWARN Self-Activation Storm Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_9_30_15.txt

Thursday will bring a strong east-northeast flow of wind with wind gusts up to 40 MPH likely. At this time, winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria. The strong winds out of the east-northeast and the high astronomical tide will bring the risk of coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands with a Coastal Flood Advisory from Noon-4 PM EDT Thursday. Reports of minor coastal flooding would be helpful during the Thursday Afternoon high tide cycle.

On Friday, another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. Future model runs will bring this into more focus. Another round of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide. On Saturday, there will be a lull in the rainfall as well as winds in the interior but strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin remains a major hurricane and will be moving towards the Bahamas within 24 hours. Joaquin is expected to continue to intensify over the next day or two and then hold similar intensity over the next few days thereafter. The model spread remains divergent despite the G-IV Recon surveillance data that was ingested to the models. The general model trend though has been with a further north but also further east track in some of the non-tropical operational models with the reliable European model continues to keep Joaquin well over open waters. The spread in the model consensus continues to be large but there still remains a potential threat to the US East coast. Additional synoptic scale missions will occur today with data ingested into the next model suites which should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 PM Thursday. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Hello to all..

..The Wednesday Storm System dumps 2-5″ of rain with isolated higher amounts across much of Southern New England with pockets of coastal flooding, river/stream/urban flooding and pockets of wind damage up to 50 MPH in portions of Southern New England particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Thursday will bring wind gusts of 30-40 MPH and a round of minor coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from Noon-4 PM EDT for East Coastal Massachusetts Cape Cod and the Islands for minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Afternoon high tide..
..Friday will bring another storm system with strong winds and heavy rainfall centered across Southeast New England followed by a lull on Saturday though strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts..
..Focus then shifts to Hurricane Joaquin and potential impact to the US East Coast from North Carolina northward. It remains too early to get into specifics regarding Joaquin but interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants..

The Wednesday storm system packed a fairly potent punch for Southern New England. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5″ were common with isolated higher amounts across Southern New England. Pockets of coastal flooding were reported along parts of South Coastal Massachusetts with river, stream and urban flooding reports as well. Wind gusts were as high as 50 MPH across portions of Southern New England, particularly in Southeast New England and East Coastal Massachusetts. Below is the latest NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement on rainfall and wind measurements and the storm log kept during the SKYWARN Self-Activation for Wednesday’s storm:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

SKYWARN Self-Activation Storm Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/reports_9_30_15.txt

Thursday will bring a strong east-northeast flow of wind with wind gusts up to 40 MPH likely. At this time, winds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria. The strong winds out of the east-northeast and the high astronomical tide will bring the risk of coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands with a Coastal Flood Advisory from Noon-4 PM EDT Thursday. Reports of minor coastal flooding would be helpful during the Thursday Afternoon high tide cycle.

On Friday, another storm system will have the potential to bring strong winds and another 1-3″ of rainfall. At this time, this looks centered across Southeast New England to maybe as far north as the Mass Pike and south to the coast. Future model runs will bring this into more focus. Another round of minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding will be possible at the time of high tide. On Saturday, there will be a lull in the rainfall as well as winds in the interior but strong northeast winds at the coast may bring another round of minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands.

This brings us to the tougher part of the time period of active weather which is Hurricane Joaquin. Joaquin has now intensified into a major hurricane and will be moving towards the Bahamas within 24 hours. Joaquin is expected to continue to intensify over the next day or two and then hold similar intensity over the next few days thereafter. The model spread remains divergent with the reliable European model keeping it well over open waters but much of the rest of the model consensus implying a US East Coast hurricane threat. A synoptic scale mission launched today with data ingested into the next model suites should hopefully provide better guidance and better consensus in the model data. Interests in Southern New England should closely monitor the progress of Joaquin. The key messages as listed in the Technical Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center best describe the concerns for Hurricane Joaquin particularly with the active weather pattern of this week that has developed over the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the high tide for Thursday Afternoon in East Coastal Massachusetts. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday. SKYWARN Activation status for the weekend into early next week will depend on storm conditions and the timing and threat of Hurricane Joaquin or its remnants. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Thursday. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook followed by the Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Statements:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Hurricane Joaquin Advisory Information:

Hurricane Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..Active Weather Pattern for the next few days in Southern New England. Starting with a storm system from Wednesday into Thursday along a cold front and then attention turns to Tropical Storm Joaquin just north of the Bahamas..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for late tonight through Thursday Morning for Northern Connecticut and Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-4″ of rain and the potential of urban, poor drainage and low lying flooding and the possibility of small river and stream flooding. Mainstem rivers should remain in their banks. Strong winds are also possible in any convective activity across much of the region during the storm late tonight through early Thursday Morning with the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Bristol, Eastern Kent and Southeast Providence Counties Rhode Island and Southern Bristol County Massachusetts from 8 AM-Noon for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning due to southerly/southeast wind flow. Minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible at the time of high tide Thursday and Friday across East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands as winds shift to the northeast.
..Tropical Storm Joaquin will bear watching as we get into late this week through the weekend. Joaquin is expected to reach hurricane strength within the next day or so. Track variance is very wide at this time and will likely narrow down in the next 24 hour period..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on later Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Specific timeframes for any ops remain under review. Additional activations are possible near the time of high tide for several days this week along with during any rounds of heavy rainfall..

After a very quiet period of weather for most of September, the weather will become quite active late tonight through early Thursday Morning with the potential for active weather through the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Connecticut and Western, Central, and Northeast Massachusetts for late tonight through early Thursday Morning for 2-4″ of rain and the potential for urban, low-lying and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and stream flooding. Other areas could see 1-2″ of rainfall. Strong winds will be possible in any convective activity that occurs with the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage during this storm. It is noted model trends have been north and west with the heaviest rainfall with some of it occurring north and west of the NWS Taunton coverage area but these axes of heavy rainfall could also occur in more convective showers and possible thunderstorms over Southern New England and will bear watching.

Winds on Wednesday are now expected to remain southerly or southeast. This means the area to watch for coastal flooding on Wednesday will be over South Coastal Massachusetts. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island including Bristol, Eastern Kent and Southeast Providence Counties Rhode Island and Southern Bristol County Massachusetts from 8 AM-Noon for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Wednesday Morning due to southerly/southeast wind flow. Minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible at the time of high tide Thursday and Friday across East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands as wind shift to the northeast.

Tropical Storm Joaquin will bear watching as we get into late this week through the weekend. There is high uncertainty right now regarding the track of Joaquin with storm tracks as far east as Bermuda and other models suggesting a US East Coast threat. Future model runs in the next 24 hour period will best discern any threat from Joaquin for the weekend time period. There is a slight bias currently towards model tracks closer to the US East Coast at the time of this coordination message issuance but could change over the next 24 hours.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on later Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Specific timeframes for any ops remain under review. Additional activations are possible near the time of high tide for several days this week along with during any rounds of heavy rainfall. Another coordination message will be posted either Wednesday Morning depending on storm operations or Wednesday Evening. A shortened coordination message could also be issued if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated during the day for Wednesday for the storm. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook as well as the Tropical Storm Joaquin advisory information:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Rip Current Risk Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Advisory Information:

Tropical Storm Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

..After severe weeks of quiet weather, an active weather week will start this evening and potentially continue right through the weekend with several rounds of heavy rainfall, minor to moderate coastal flooding and the potential for strong to damaging winds. Impacts from Tropical Storm Joaquin are also possible as we get to the weekend but far too early to get into specifics on the system’s impact on the region..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for late tonight through Thursday Morning for Northern Connecticut and Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-4″ of rain and the potential of urban, poor drainage and low lying flooding and the possibility of small river and stream flooding. Mainstem rivers should remain in their banks. Strong winds are also possible in any convective activity across much of the region during the storm late tonight through early Thursday Morning with the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage..
..There is a high rip current risk in effect from 10 AM Tuesday through Tuesday Evening for Southern Bristol County Massachusetts, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard and South Coastal Rhode Island. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible at the time of high tide in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands starting Wednesday..
..Tropical Storm Joaquin will bear watching as we get into late this week through the weekend..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Wednesday. Specific timeframes are under review. Additional activations are possible near the time of high tide for several days this week along with during any rounds of heavy rainfall..

After a very quiet period of weather for most of September, the weather will become quite active late tonight through early Thursday Morning with the potential for active weather through the weekend. A Flood Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut and Western, Central, and Northeast Massachusetts for late tonight through early Thursday Morning for 2-4″ of rain and the potential for urban, low-lying and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and stream flooding. Other areas could see 1-2″ of rainfall. Strong winds will be possible in any convective activity that occurs with the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage during this storm.

There is a high rip current risk from 10 AM Tuesday through this evening on Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, Southern Bristol County Mass and Southern Rhode Island. As we get into Wednesday, minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding are possible as winds shift to northeast across East Coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. There could be several days of this potential with persistent Northeast winds and high astronomical tides.

Tropical Storm Joaquin will bear watching as we get into late this week through the weekend. There is high uncertainty right now to the track and intensity of Joaquin but this will bear watching throughout the week as some impact as remnants or as a tropical system are possible.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible on Wednesday. Specific timeframes are under review. Another coordination message will be sent by 10 PM this evening. Additional activations are possible near the time of high tide for several days this week along with during any rounds of heavy rainfall. Below is the NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement, High Rip Current Risk Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook as well as the Tropical Storm Joaquin advisory information:

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Rip Current Risk Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Advisory Information:

Tropical Storm Joaquin Public Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Forecast/Advisory:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Joaquin Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Hello to all..

The following is a complete announcement from FEMA regarding a test of the Emergency Alert System as part of National Preparedness Month:

FEMA ADVISORY
FEMA To Conduct Test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS) in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island
September 14, 2015

As part of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA’s) mission to strengthen preparedness and resiliency during National Preparedness Month, FEMA, state and tribal emergency managers, and state broadcasters associations will conduct a test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS). The EAS will be tested in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island on Wednesday, September 16, 2015, at 2:20 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, and will last approximately one minute.

The test will be seen and heard by the public over radio, television and cable TV systems, with only minor disruptions in programming.  It’s designed to occur during the state’s regular monthly EAS test conducted by local broadcasters in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. (It’s also possible the EAS test could be heard or seen in upper New York, as some stations in New England can be received across the New York border.)

The message will be the same as typical EAS test messages, with the word “national” added to the message: “This is a national test of the Emergency Alert System. This is only a test…” The test is designed to have limited impact on the public, with only minor disruptions in radio and TV programs.

The test requires that participating radio and television stations make a minor configuration change to their station EAS equipment to receive a National Periodic Test (NPT) code message.  EAS stations will receive and broadcast a national test message from FEMA’s system known to broadcasters and state alerting officials as the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System or IPAWS.  Participation in the test on September 16th is completely voluntary for radio and TV stations and cable operators in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island. There is no Federal Communications Commission regulatory liability for stations that choose not to participate.  Comprehensive testing and analyzing of alerting technologies will ensure that an effective and reliable system will exist to alert members of tribes, and residents in all six states if an emergency occurs.

The FEMA Integrated Public Alert and Warning System also supports capabilities for state and local alerting authorities to distribute emergency alerts to cellular phones as Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), to broadcast non-weather emergency information to NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radios, and to publish emergency information and alerts to the Internet connected to unique alerting systems that monitor and redistribute alerts through various Internet applications, services, or websites.  Internet redistributors of emergency information can include Facebook, Twitter, websites, digital signs and specialized applications (APPS). Devices that serve people with disabilities and others with access and functional needs can also pick up the redistributed alert messages through the FEMA All-Hazards Information Feed partners.  While IPAWS supports all of these other capabilities, the test on September 16 will only include the Emergency Alert System through radio, television, and cable TV systems.

In 2007, FEMA began modernizing the nation’s public alert and warning system by integrating new technologies into the existing alert systems.  The new system, known as the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) became operational in 2011 and today supports over 700 local, state, and federal users and uses a standardized message format to enable public safety alerting authorities to send the same alert and warning message over multiple communication pathways at the same time to citizens in harm’s way, helping to save lives.

Public safety officials need to be sure that in times of an emergency or disaster, they have methods and systems that will deliver urgent alerts and warnings to the public when needed.  Periodic testing of public alert and warning systems is a way to analyze and determine what improvements in technologies need to be made.

September is also National Preparedness Month, and FEMA reminds the residents of Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island to be informed about emergencies that could happen in their community.  FEMA’s theme this year: Don’t Wait. Communicate. Make Your Emergency Plan Today. FEMA is encouraging the public to take action now and to make a plan with your community, your family, and for your pets.   Plan how to stay safe and communicate during the disasters that can affect your community.  Get involved. Build an emergency supply kit.  Go to www.READY.gov<http://www.READY.gov> for more information.

For more information on FEMA’s Integrated Public Alert and Warning System, go to: www.fema.gov/ipaws<http://www.fema.gov/ipaws>.  For more preparedness information, go to www.ready.gov<http://www.ready.gov>.

FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.

###

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
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Hello to all..

The Southern New England Weather Conference will take place Saturday October 24th, 2015. Early Bird Registration is now open for this year’s conference. The conference will again be held at Meditech, at the base of Great Blue Hill in Canton, Massachusetts. Some topics that will be covered this year include:

-Severe Weather Preparedness, including a talk by Dr. Lans Rothfusz, Deputy Director of the National Severe Storms Laboratory
-The record-setting winter of 2014-2015
-Short-lived tornadoes, such as the one that struck Revere in 2014

The tentative agenda for the Southern New England Weather Conference can be seen via the following link:
http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2015Agenda.shtml

Registration Fees:
Please note that registration will be stopped after 230 registrants!

Early Bird Registration (Today – Sept 14):  $89
Student/Teacher Early and Regular Registration (Today – Oct 19): $89
Regular Registration (Sept 15 – Oct 19): $99
Late Registration (Oct 20 – Oct 23 – at the conference site): $109 (on-line registration will not be available after Oct 19.)
Student/Teacher Late Registration (Oct 25): $99 (same rules as above)

To register by phone, contact the Blue Hill Observatory at 617-696-0562. Complete registration information can be seen via the following link:
http://www.sneweatherconf.org/confregform.cfm

We hope to see many of you at the 2015 Southern New England Weather Conference!

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: (508) 346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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