Uncategorized – Page 146

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 7th, 2014 Severe Weather Potential

July 7, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely from mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Eastern areas should monitor as we get into Monday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and portions of Western New England in a 5% risk for severe weather..
..Additional chances for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exist for Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday. Activity may linger into Thursday as well. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% risk of severe weather for Tuesday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening..

Warm and humid conditions will return after a pleasant weekend in the wake of the July 3rd Severe Weather Outbreak and Hurricane Arthur’s impacts on Eastern New England. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely from mid-afternoon Monday through Monday Evening across Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut possibly spreading further east as we get into Monday Evening. Wind shear profiles combined with sufficient instability should allow for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during this period. Strong to damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. Eastern areas should monitor as we get into Monday Evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas just to the west of the NWS Taunton coverage area in a Slight Risk for severe weather and portions of Western New England in a 5% risk for severe weather.

Additional chances for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms exist for Tuesday late Afternoon and Evening and Wednesday. Activity may linger into Thursday as well. SPC has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% risk of severe weather for Tuesday. The details on the severe weather potential during this timeframe will be handled as we get closer to each day. The threats for severe weather during these days will depend on the following:

1.) Cloud cover from any previous convection on the previous day.
2.) Timing and movement of any other impulses or triggers in the atmosphere ahead of the cold front.
3.) Timing and movement of the actual cold front through our region.

After Thursday, conditions are expected to be dry Friday and Saturday likely extending into the first half of Sunday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible to likely mid-afternoon Monday though Monday Evening. This will be the only coordination message on the severe weather potential for Monday. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. The next coordination message on potential for severe weather on Tuesday will be posted either late Monday Evening or Tuesday Morning depending on the evolution of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms mid-Monday Afternoon to Monday Evening. Below are the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Pager #: (508) 354-3142
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 1-800-445-2588 Ext.: 72929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Post Severe Weather and Hurricane Arthur Coordination Message #1 – July 3rd, 2014 Severe Weather Outbreak and Hurricane Arthur Post Storm Information

July 6, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..First Severe Weather Outbreak of the 2014 Summer Severe Weather Season occurred on July 3rd 2014 across Southern New Hampshire, interior Massachusetts from Northern Norfolk County North and west and across parts of Northern Connecticut..
..Hurricane Arthur brought a significant flash flood incident to portions of South Coastal Massachusetts with isolated pockets of power outages and tree and power line damage on portions of Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island..
..A second post severe weather and Hurricane Arthur coordination message will follow later this week after the NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone report on Hurricane Arthur is issued later this week..
..Any post storm damage and flood pictures or video from these two weather events can be sent as a reply to this message or sent to the email address pics@nsradio.org and credit will be given to the spotter as the pictures or video is shared with media, emergency management and the National Weather Service..

The first severe weather outbreak of the 2014 summer severe weather season occurred on Thursday July 3rd, 2014. As a slow moving cold front approached the region with unstable conditions in place and sufficient wind shear profiles, a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms developed over portions of Western, North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts and Southeast New Hampshire. These storms were responsible for pockets of wind damage and hail across portions of Western-Central Hampshire County Massachusetts and also across portions of Northeast Massachusetts including the Billerica, Lawrence and Methuen area into North-Central Essex County Massachusetts. Another severe thunderstorm organized over Rockingham County NH impacting the Newmarket to Portsmouth, NH area.

Another line of strong to severe thunderstorms organized across Eastern New York. This line would traverse much of Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut producing wind damage, some of which was significant and hail across portions of this region. Some of the more significant damage locations were across Northampton and Whatley Massachusetts and in New Britain, Connecticut, a 63 MPH measured wind gust was recorded. The southern storm across Connecticut would intensify as it entered South-Central Massachusetts causing pockets of wind damage and hail in this area. It would intensify further as it affected communities such as Natick, Wayland, Wellesley, Waltham and into Metro-West and the North Shore with numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and even structural damage with a section of roof blown off an apartment complex in Waltham, Massachusetts. Several trees landed on cars and homes in Natick, Wayland and up through the North Shore of Massachusetts. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log, and Facebook Album on the July 3rd, 2014 Severe Weather Outbreak from many of the pictures that all of you in our Amateur Radio and non-Amateur Radio Spotter community have sent into us:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/7_3_14_LSR.txt

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports_7_3_14.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Page – July 3rd, 2014 Severe Weather Outbreak:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.806943206006366.1073741837.216287391738620&type=1

On Friday July 4th, 2014, Hurricane Arthur would make its closest approach to Southern New England. An outer rain band organized between the circulation of Hurricane Arthur and the cold front that was gradually pushing its way through the rest of Southern New England. This set the stage for very heavy rainfall across portions of Southern and Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Hardest hit were portions of South Coastal Massachusetts across the Greater New Bedford, Wareham, Plymouth area where 6-8″ of rain fell. This caused a significant flash flood episode across urban areas of New Bedford and Fairhaven with other flash flood reports around the Wareham and Plymouth area. Surrounding this area was a widespread 2-5″ rainfall across portions of South-Central Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with more minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

Across Cape Cod and the Islands, winds picked up after 600 PM Friday Evening causing isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages along with 1-3″ of rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding. Wind gusts on Nantucket Island were over 60 MPH with sustained tropical storm force winds. This downed a few trees and caused power outages to over 2700 people on the island. There were also numerous streets flooded in downtown Nantucket for a time during the evening hours. Cape Cod had wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range. Wind on Martha’s Vineyard were also gusting to the 40-50 MPH range. Below are the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement, and WX1BOX Facebook Page Photo Album with the Flash Flooding Album:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Hurricane Arthur:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/7_4_14_arthur_LSR.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Hurricane Arthur Rainfall/Wind Reports:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/7_4_14_PNS.txt

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/storm_reports_7_4_14_arthur.txt

WX1BOX Facebook Page Album – Flash Flood Event Related to Hurricane Arthur:
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.806688216031865.1073741836.216287391738620&type=3

Respectfully Submitted,

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Hurricane Arthur Coordination Message #6 – Friday 7/4/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Impacts

July 4, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..A Severe Weather Outbreak resulted in pockets of wind damage, hail, and flooding across portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western, Central, and Northeast Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Those with damage and/or hail photos may send them as a reply to this message or to pics@nsradio.org and the photos will be shared with the media, emergency management and the National Weather Service. The Local Storm Report from this outbreak appears below.
..Active Week of Weather Now Focuses on Hurricane Arthur, the eventual passage of the cold front that caused the severe weather outbreak Thursday and flood/flash flood potential for the region..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Barnstable and Nantucket Counties (the area from Woods Hole to Provincetown including Nantucket Island). Sustained winds of 25 to 35 MPH with Gusts to 50 MPH are possible in Barnstable County while sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH are possible on Nantucket Island based on the current track of Hurricane Arthur. Isolated tree and wire damage and power outages are possible. Heavy Rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts up to 6″ are possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding in this area. Some moderate storm surge coastal flooding is possible on north and east facing locations of Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Noon Today Through late tonight for Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Heavy Rainfall of 2-4″ with isolated higher amounts up to 6″ are possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding in this area as well as the potential for small stream flooding..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this evening for Western and Central Massachusetts, Southern New Hampshire and Northern Connecticut. In this area, heavy rainfall will be more localized but heavy rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour where heavier downpours may lead to flash flooding particularly in urban and poor drainage areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 200 PM today lasting through early Saturday Morning for flash flood issues and the potential for tropical storm force winds on Nantucket Island and portions of Cape Cod..
..The VoIP Hurricane Net, Hurricane Watch Net and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, all activated Thursday Evening through Friday Morning for Hurricane Arthur’s landfall in Eastern North Carolina and will likely activate formally once again for Hurricane Arthur for direct impacts on Nova Scotia Canada where the Canadian Hurricane Centre is also likely to be active as well..

Thursday represented the largest severe weather outbreak of the 2014 summer season with many pockets of wind damage, hail, flooding and lightning damage. Those with damage and/or hail photos may send them as a reply to this message or to pics@nsradio.org and the photos will be shared with the media, emergency management and the National Weather Service. The Local Storm Report from Thursday’s severe weather outbreak appears below:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407040438.nwus51.html

Attention now turns to Hurricane Arthur and his interaction with the cold front that caused Thursday’s Severe Weather Outbreak. This cold front will finally make its way through Southern New England late tonight and Saturday Morning. This front will interact with Hurricane Arthur and cause a heavy rainfall event especially in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island but also in a more localized way in western and central parts of the region. At 950 AM, radar showed outer rain bands of Hurricane Arthur affecting parts of Southeast Massachusetts, Block Island and Long Island moving north-northeastward while a band of rainfall associated with the cold front is over Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Eastern New York. The interaction of these systems is likely to cause the potential for heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The headlines depict the Flash Flood Watches over the area and expected rainfall amounts.

There will be a bit of wind impacts over extreme Southeast New England but the main threat as stated all week has been the threat for heavy rainfall and flood/flash flooding with Hurricane Arthur and the interaction of the Cold Front. Nonetheless, portions of the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island will receive a period of strong to damaging winds to tropical storm force Friday Evening into early Saturday Morning as well as some pockets of coastal storm surge flooding. Winds will be out of the northeast so north and east facing locations will face the greatest risk for pockets of moderate storm surge coastal flooding. Wind intensity will be much like a conventional nor’easter over this area so isolated tree and wire damage and power outages are possible. Winds will be less as you move away from Cape Cod and Nantucket and the bigger issue across much of the area is the potential for flooding from heavy rainfall. The headlines depict the main wind threat in the Tropical Storm Warning area from Woods Hole to Provincetown including Nantucket Island Massachusetts.

The VoIP Hurricane Net, Hurricane Watch Net and WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, all activated Thursday Evening through Friday Morning for Hurricane Arthur’s landfall in Eastern North Carolina and will likely activate formally once again for Hurricane Arthur for direct impacts on Nova Scotia Canada where the Canadian Hurricane Centre is also likely to be active as well. See their respective web links for details:

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence no later than 200 PM today lasting through early Saturday Morning for flash flood issues and the potential for tropical storm force winds on Nantucket Island and portions of Cape Cod. This will be the last coordination message regarding Hurricane Arthur and his interaction with the cold front. Below are the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hurricane Local Statement, and Public Information Statement on Tropical Storm Safety Tips as well as National Hurricane Center information on Hurricane Arthur:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement – Hurricane Arthur:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather and Hurricane Arthur Coordination Message #5A – Thursday 7/3/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 4, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407040438.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement – Hurricane Arthur:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather and Hurricane Arthur Coordination Message #5 – Thursday 7/3/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential

July 3, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Weather Pattern will remain active Thursday through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Hurricane Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday with much of the rest of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday. As we get into late Thursday Night and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Hurricane Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from Noon today trough this evening for thunderstorms and heavy downpours producing localized flash flooding where thunderstorms train or track over the same area producing locally heavy rainfall amounts..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Thursday lasting through this evening. It appears that SKYWARN Activation will be needed Friday for the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding to flash flooding with a cold front moving through the area and potential of moisture from Hurricane Arthur interacting with this cold front. Detail on potential activation for Friday will be determined in the next coordination messages. Interests in the region, particularly Southeast New England, should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Arthur as there remains some uncertainties in his specific track..
..WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the VoIP Hurricane Net are activating at 6 PM EDT/2200 UTC Thursday Evening through Friday Morning for Hurricane Arthur’s impacts on Eastern North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch Net will be activating at Noon EDT/1600 UTC Thursday for Hurricane Arthur..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected portions of Southern New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut Wednesday Afternoon. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report detailing the events from Wednesday Afternoon:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Wednesday Afternoon 7/2/14 Severe Weather Event:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407022217.nwus51.html

The weather will remain active Thursday through Friday and possibly into the Saturday Morning timeframe. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front continues to gradually approach Southern New England from the west and will continue to affect our region Thursday. Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will likely refire by late morning/early afternoon in Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and will likely have a better chance to extend eastward across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday with much of the rest of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday. The extent of the severe weather threat will be contingent on any potential thunderstorms overnight given activity in Eastern New York late this evening and any cloud cover. If sufficient heating and destabilization can occur, wind fields would be sufficient for at least isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity across much of Southern New England.

Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding where thunderstorms train over the same area. A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Cheshire County New Hampshire and Franklin, Hampshire and Hampden Counties of Massachusetts from Noon today through this evening for thunderstorms and heavy downpours producing localized flash flooding where thunderstorms train or track over the same area producing locally heavy rainfall amounts.

As we get into late Thursday Night and Friday, possibly extending into early Saturday Morning, impacts from Hurricane Arthur and the interaction of the approaching cold front could potentially lead to what is known as a ‘predecessor rainfall event’ also known as a PRE which could result in the potential for widespread heavy rainfall in the axis of where this event take place. It is unclear where this axis will setup across the region or if it stays south of our area. It is also unclear when this event will occur but it is looking more like the late Thursday Night into Friday timeframe.

In terms of the exact track of Hurricane Arthur, the track currently brings Arthur around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. While this track would keep the strongest winds south and east of Southern New England, the interaction of this system with the cold front and its transition to a post tropical system could change the impacts of this system on the region. In addition, the cone of uncertainty on the track guidance extends as far north as Southeast New England. Overnight, models appear to be in a bit better agreement on a track closer to or perhaps just south of the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. This would keep most of the strongest winds away from Southern New England though a few stronger wind gusts could affect the Outer Cape and Nantucket Island. With the closest pass of Arthur to Southern New England likely taking place late Friday Night into Saturday Morning which is still approximately 3 days away, there remains some uncertainty. As the system continues to organize and moves north-northeastward and begins to turn northeast, model tracks should become more certain as we get into the Thursday Afternoon to Friday Morning timeframe. Interests in Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England, should monitor the track of Hurricane Arthur as well as how this system interacts with the cold front as we get into the timeframe of impact late this week.

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center and the VoIP Hurricane Net are activating at 6 PM EDT/2200 UTC Thursday Evening through Friday Morning for Hurricane Arthur’s impacts on Eastern North Carolina and Northeast South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch Net will be activating at Noon EDT/1600 UTC Thursday for Hurricane Arthur. See their respective web links for details:

WX4NHC, the Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center:
http://www.wx4nhc.org

VoIP Hurricane Net:
http://www.voipwx.net

Hurricane Watch Net:
http://www.hwn.org

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence at 11 AM Thursday lasting through this evening. It appears that SKYWARN Activation will be needed Friday for the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding to flash flooding with a cold front moving through the area and potential of moisture from Hurricane Arthur interacting with this cold front. Detail on potential activation for Friday will be determined in the next coordination messages. The next complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Thursday Evening regarding severe weather and flood potential for Friday and any impacts directly or indirectly from Hurricane Arthur. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Hurricane Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Hurricane Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

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Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Arthur Coordination Message #4 – Wednesday 7/2/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 3, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms affected portions of Western Massachusetts, Western Connecticut and Southern New Hampshire Wednesday Afternoon and Early Evening. Weather Pattern will remain active Thursday through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Thursday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has now placed Southwest New Hampshire, Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a Slight Risk for severe weather for Thursday with much of the rest of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday. As we get into late Thursday Night and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday around or after noon. It appears that SKYWARN Activation will be needed Friday for the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding to flash flooding with a cold front moving through the area and potential of moisture from Tropical Storm Arthur interacting with this cold front. Interests in the region, particularly Southeast New England, should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Arthur as there remains some uncertainties in his specific track..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Wednesday Afternoon 7/2/14 Severe Weather Event:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1407022217.nwus51.html

As we get into late Thursday Night and Friday, possibly extending into early Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and the interaction of the approaching cold front could potentially lead to what is known as a ‘predecessor rainfall event’ also known as a PRE which could result in the potential for widespread heavy rainfall in the axis of where this event take place. It is unclear where this axis will setup across the region or if it stays south of our area. It is also unclear when this event will occur but it is looking more like the late Thursday Night into Friday timeframe.

In terms of the exact track of Tropical Storm Arthur, the track currently brings Arthur around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. While this track would keep the strongest winds south and east of Southern New England, the interaction of this system with the cold front and its transition to a post tropical system could change the impacts of this system on the region. In addition, the cone of uncertainty on the track guidance extends as far north as Southeast New England. It is also noted that model agreement on the track is not as strong as yesterday with some reliable models being much further offshore with Arthur while other models bring Arthur closer to Southern New England. In addition, the closest pass of Arthur to Southern New England will likely take place late Friday Night into Saturday Morning which is still approximately 3 days away. As the system organizes and continues its movement northward, model tracks should become more certain as we get into the Thursday Afternoon to Friday Morning timeframe. Interests in Southern New England, particularly Southeast New England, should monitor the track of Tropical Storm Arthur as well as how this system interacts with the cold front as we get into the timeframe of impact late this week.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Thursday around or after noon. It appears that SKYWARN Activation will be needed Friday for the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding to flash flooding with a cold front moving through the area and potential of moisture from Tropical Storm Arthur interacting with this cold front. The next complete coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Tropical Storm Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Arthur Coordination Message #3 – Wednesday 7/2/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Weather Pattern still expected to be active Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely Wednesday Evening in Western New England from Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut and across much of Southern New England on Thursday. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. As we get into later Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continued to have a Slight Risk for severe weather over portions of Western New England for Wednesday and much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, the weather will turn active as we get into Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into the Saturday Morning timeframe. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front will be gradually approaching Southern New England from the west and will begin to affect our region Wednesday Evening. This will likely bring the first round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms starting in Western New England Wednesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Slight Risk for severe weather across portions of Western New England for Wednesday. This area covers Southern New Hampshire, Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut.

Even without this event, the approaching cold front has the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday to much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday for much of Southern New England.

In terms of the exact track of Tropical Storm Arthur, the track currently brings Arthur around the 40 North/70 West Benchmark. While this track would keep the strongest winds south and east of Southern New England, the interaction of this system with the cold front and its transition to a post tropical system could change the impacts of this system on the region. In addition, the cone of uncertainty on the track guidance extends as far north as Southeast New England. It is also noted that model agreement on the track is not as strong as yesterday with some reliable models being much further offshore with Arthur while other models bring Arthur closer to Southern New England. In addition, the closest pass of Arthur to Southern New England will likely take place late Friday Night into Saturday Morning which is still approximately 4 days away. As the system organizes and continues its movement northward, model tracks should become more certain as we get into the Thursday Afternoon to Friday Morning timeframe. Interests in Southern New England should monitor the track of Tropical Storm Arthur as well as how this system interacts with the cold front as we get into the timeframe of impact late this week.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front. A shortened coordination message focused on Wednesday’s severe weather potential will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated for Wednesday. The next complete coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Tropical Storm Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Severe Weather and Tropical Storm Arthur Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 7/2/14-Saturday Morning 7/5/14 Severe Weather Potential

July 2, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..Weather Pattern still will turn active Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning with several days of severe weather and flood to flash flood potential and the potential for some possible impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur or Arthur’s interaction with a cold front that will move through the region..
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday Evening in Western New England and across much of Southern New England on Thursday. Strong to Damaging Winds, Hail, and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding or flash flooding are the main threats. As we get into later Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with a cold front, could cause additional heavy rainfall and flood to flash flood potential across portions of Southern New England with exact locations for impact uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Wednesday and much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front..

After a relatively quiet stretch of weather over the past few weeks, the weather will turn active as we get into Wednesday Evening through Friday and possibly into Saturday Morning. Hot and humid conditions will prevail over the region over the next few days. A Cold Front will be gradually approaching Southern New England from the west and will begin to affect our region Wednesday Evening. This could bring the first round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms starting in Western New England Wednesday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for Wednesday.

As we get into Thursday and Friday, possibly extending into early Saturday Morning, impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and the interaction of the approaching cold front could potentially lead to what is known as a ‘predecessor rainfall event’ also known as a PRE which could result in the potential for widespread heavy rainfall in the axis of where this event take place. It is unclear where this axis will setup across the region or if it stays south of our area. Even without this event, the approaching cold front has the potential for another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday to much of Southern New England with strong to damaging winds, hail and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding as the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a 5% probability for severe weather Thursday.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Evening and Thursday. It is too early to say whether any SKYWARN Activation will be needed late this week for any impacts from Tropical Storm Arthur and his interaction with the cold front. The next coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement, SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks and links to latest National Hurricane Center products on Tropical Storm Arthur:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Tropical Storm Arthur NHC Advisory and Graphical Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Arthur Public Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt31.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Technical Discussion Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt41.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast/Advisory Information:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt21.KNHC.html

Tropical Storm Arthur Wind Speed Probabilities:
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font11.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Amateur Radio Field Day Weather Coordination Message #2

June 28, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the second and final message in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 12 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..For the first time in a number of years, there is no threat for thunderstorms over the course of Field Day Weekend. Weather Conditions should be quite pleasant for Field Day Operations with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low humidity. Operators and people setting up Amateur Radio Field Day sites should assure they drink plenty of liquids but beyond that it should be an excellent weekend weather wise for this event..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..No SKYWARN Activation or Ops at NWS Taunton are expected during the 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend..

There are a large number of Amateur Radio Field Day sites across the NWS Taunton Coverage Area and adjacent NWS Coverage Areas. Here are some links to information on these Amateur Radio Field Day Sites from across the region:

Amateur Radio Field Day Information: http://www.arrl.org/field-day
Amateur Radio Field Day National Locator: http://www.arrl.org/field-day-locator
Eastern Massachusetts Field Day Home Page: http://fd.ema.arrl.org/

The Charlestown and Westerly RI EOC’s will be active with their Field Day at Ninigret Park in Charlestown, RI. Their site will be open to the public during normal park hours in the daytime. There operation will be the full 24 hours.

For the first time in a number of years, the 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend will feature gorgeous summer weather with high temperatures on Saturday in the lower 80s except 75-80 degrees at the coast and high temperatures in the 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 60s.

During setup and takedown of Amateur Radio Field Day sites and even while operating, be sure to drink plenty of fluids and eat accordingly. Also having a jacket or sweatshirt during evenings as conditions cool etc. may also be useful while operating this year’s Field Day. The link below features information on Heat Safety:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

Below is a link to the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and into the next work week:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

While the lack of weather makes this less important, Field Day sites are still encouraged to bring a NOAA All-Hazards Weather Radio and a dedicated Ham Radio that can monitor their local SKYWARN Frequency for their area as a best safety and preparedness practice. Also sites that have mobile Internet capability can utilize that capability as a way to monitor for weather information. With Mobile Internet capability, utilizing Echolink to monitor the New England Reflector system on Echolink Conference Node: 9123/IRLP 9123 would be helpful as well. Please see the link below for the latest SKYWARN Frequency information for the region:
http://beta.wx1box.org/node/37

This will be the final coordination message on 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day activities. For those Amateur Operators participating in Field Day, good luck in this event that is both a contest and a means to practice getting on the air from emergency operation centers and outdoor locations which could be needed in a disaster related scenario.

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

Amateur Radio Field Day Weather Coordination Message #1

June 27, 2014 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..The following is the first in a series of messages on Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend and providing information on the weather during this period. This is a tradition spanning over 12 years for Amateur Radio Operators involved with Field Day and the NWS Taunton SKYWARN Program..
..For the first time in a number of years, there is no threat for thunderstorms over the course of Field Day Weekend. Weather Conditions should be quite pleasant for Field Day Operations with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low humidity. Operators and people setting up Amateur Radio Field Day sites should assure they drink plenty of liquids but beyond that it should be an excellent weekend weather wise for this event..
..Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend is an annual event where Ham Operators across the United States setup at Emergency Operations Centers, field locations, home locations etc. to operate and test their equipment and skills and make as many radio contacts as possible during the weekend. Many locations can be visited by the public and Amateur Radio Field Day can be a form of outreach to Ham and non-Ham Operators. It is also noted that several states have given proclamations to Amateur Radio/Ham Radio Operators for either an ‘Amateur Radio Day or Amateur Radio Week’ during the month of June or an ‘Amateur Radio Month’ for this month. It is both a fun/preparatory event for Ham Radio Operators for Emergency Communications scenarios..
..No SKYWARN Activation or Ops at NWS Taunton are expected during the 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend..

If there is additional Amateur Radio Field Day information that you would like to appear in these coordination message, please contact me and it will be added to this section of the Amateur Radio Field Day Coordination Message. There will be another message issued Friday but given the lack of weather, a series of messages extended into Amateur Radio Field Day weekend is not required.

For the first time in a number of years, the 2014 Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend will feature gorgeous summer weather with temperatures on Friday in the 75-80 degree range and weekend temperatures in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 60s with some slightly cooler readings in rural areas especially Friday Evening.

Below is a link to the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook for those interested in checking out weather conditions over the course of Amateur Radio Field Day Weekend:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

The final coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Friday Evening.

Respectfully Submitted,

Uncategorized

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