Storm Coordination Message #3 – Saturday Late Afternoon 1/3/15-Sunday 1/4/15 Winter Storm Potential

January 3, 2015 Rob Macedo Leave a comment

Hello to all..

..First Winter Storm System of 2015 to affect the region mid to late Saturday Afternoon into Sunday with a wintry mix of precipitation that will change to rain across the region and strong winds and heavy rainfall along portions of the Southeast New England coast..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 2-4″ of snow and 0.25-0.50″ ice accretion. This area has the highest potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages due to icing..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 1-2″ of snow and up to .25″ of ice accretion with isolated higher ice accretion amounts possible. The icing may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages due to icing..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Central Middlesex, Western Essex, Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for up to 1″ of snow and up to 0.10″ of ice accretion with isolated higher ice accretion amounts possible..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM Saturday to 2 AM Sunday Morning for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Western Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence County of Rhode Island for up to 1″ of snow with a trace of icing..
..A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Sunday for Southern Bristol, Southern Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and Newport County Rhode Island and Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM to 10 PM Sunday for Dukes and Nantucket Counties for sustained winds of 20-30 PM with gusts to 50 MPH likely. These winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are possible in Southeast New England from rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for this winter storm with Ops at NWS Taunton possible Saturday Evening into Sunday Morning though at the present time self-activation of SKYWARN appears to be the likely scenario..

The first winter storm system of 2015 will impact the region starting late Saturday Afternoon and lasting into Sunday. Precipitation will start as snow across most areas except a mix of snow, sleet and rain at the coast with precipitation starting a bit earlier in the west between 2-5 PM and then in the east between 4-7 PM. Precipitation will gradually change from snow to sleet and freezing rain and then rain from south to north. The headlines of this message cover the current areas expected to see the most wintry precipitation and other interior areas that could see winter weather impacts. It is noted that there is increasing risk for significant icing in northern and western Massachusetts where the Winter Storm Warning has been issued. Key factors for this storm that could change include:

1.) How much snow falls with this storm before any change over to sleet and freezing rain. This could affect the amount of snowfall and duration of icing seen in the interior and the total amount of frozen precipitation.
2.) How much sleet and freezing rain falls before any changeover to rain. This could also affect the amount of icing that occurs in the interior and that amount of icing could impact whether any pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages develop.

Spotter reports of snow and ice accumulation and precipitation type changeover will be critical in updating the conditions for this winter storm system.

Another facet of this storm will be strong winds across South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind Advisories remain in effect for much of Sunday for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH likely. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Pockets of urban and poor drainage flooding are possible in Southeast New England from rainfall of 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts possible.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely for this winter storm with Ops at NWS Taunton possible Saturday Evening into Sunday Morning though at the present time self-activation of SKYWARN appears to be the likely scenario. This will likely be the last complete coordination message for this storm. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics Page and NWS Taunton PDF Document on Storm Impacts:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics Page:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Storm Impacts PDF Document:
http://beta.wx1box.org/local/2015.01.03_AM.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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